Thread: Fedgolfer's Account Talk

Currently 100% I fund, contemplating move to S fund in hopes of catching some seasonality and January Effect. Not sure how I want to time it considering Japanese markets will likely bump up the I fund. TA on DWCP and EFA showing some legs left before they get overbought on the short term... Williams R is one of the indicators I watch that is already overbought... but I'm not worried about that tipping the scales because I think the bulls will be on parade until the VIX has a few days north of the magic number "12".

TA on DWCP and DWCPF starting to look ripe for a buy... but the econ calendar could delay that a couple trading days. F fund chart pattern has the price near the top of a channel trendline, but looks due for a poppin' as the herd looks to become defensive. 50% f, 50% g.

Lookin' to buy some S when it becomes oversold and a true bottom of the Price Channel(20) can be determined.

my real IFT transfer on tsp.gov never entered, it sat idle for 15 minutes. I'm still 100% I. A discrepency already, 3 trading days into the new year.

Originally Posted by fedgolfer

my real IFT transfer on tsp.gov never entered, it sat idle for 15 minutes. I'm still 100% I. A discrepency already, 3 trading days into the new year.

I started my IFT at 11:42 and it took 13 mins. I also did a allocation change during the 13 mins.

... I was kind of PO'd it tsp.gov never took it. But I think the damage, if any, will not be as bad as I originally thought. I'm hoping for another case of "its better to be lucky than good."

... my rejected IFT out of I is gonna punch me in the gut. I don't think I want to stick around for a dead cat bounce though. I think DWCP, EFA and S&P will need the Fast stoch %k(14) %d(3) will need the %d(3) to hit 20% or below to think about jumping in, could happen on intraday movement though. the %k(14) is already in overbought territory for DWCP and EFA and the lower bollinger band looks like it may provide possible support... but I'm leaning to thinking it won't. I'm a little woozy from my failed IFT. My initial thought of 50% F and 50% G looked like a should have followed my gut. Good thought, awful execution. Lesson learned.

TA telling me Buy, gut telling me not yet due to trendlines on chart patterns, VIX overrides my gut and shows some room, econ rpts and earnings may lend a hand... 50 s, 50 i

... i'm not sure if i'm more excited about the the intraday reversal/inverted head and shoulders or the VIX going below 12. Hopefully, the harbinger of a couple days of green.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=^vix;range=3m;indicator=sma(2 0,50,200)+psar+bollinger+stochasticfast;charttype= candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefi ned

...a one or two day bump down on the vix to 11 then back up and sell out. 3 days closing above 12 is a definite sign of more lasting fear in the market... the symetrical triangle slowly forming on s fund prices also says a larger pop is nearing.

Nasdaq at a critical ground now, if it breaks above ~2471 and holds it will prevent the triple top... hopefully earnings will keep it above. I think for the bull to continue a tech led run needs to be in the cards. Strength of DWCP speaks for itself, 4 strong candlesticks approaching the PSAR. Now, if I can just find an effective exit strategy for I fund/EFA, it's battered me so bad I can't think straight, don't want to exit to early but don't want any more losses.

50% g, 25 %s, 25% i

getting a bit defensive, preserving some gains after my I fund debacle. May not be as easy to get the quick gains back if they tank again. Still in a bullish tilt so i'm keepin' half in. If the C and S didn't show potential double and triple tops, I would have been 100% stocks with an earnings season coming on that one would think, would show strong 4th Qtr rpts.

Originally Posted by fedgolfer

If the C and S didn't show potential double and triple tops, I would have been 100% stocks with an earnings season coming on that one would think, would show strong 4th Qtr rpts.

NOTE TO SELF: Keep your eye on the ball and weigh the tech analysis of stochastics and VIX over my doodled trend lines.