Thread: Fedgolfer's Account Talk

seems like there's a duality coming to a crossroads and one has to give pretty soon. If the ECB fights inflation and raises rates you'd think that would lower commodity prices and oil, right? But if they, raise rates, that strengthens the Euro and weakens the dollar. For over a year, a weak dollar has meant higher oil. So, it seems both can't work simultaneously, right? Is this confusion only in my head, or can someone help me before the IFT deadline.

IMO I Fund.

Originally Posted by luv2read

IMO I Fund.

Thanks, l2r, after y'all straightened my confused mind up yesterday, I see how the i-fund may have more cushion because of the euro/$ currency trade. Lemme ask a question though, since I'm strongly considering buying into I fund. If you're a Euro, or other EAFE inhabitant, holding stocks and you hear the ECB raises rates, wouldn't you run to safety or at least put a stop-loss in since growth has been taken of the table to a large degree? And wouldn't that get-defensive thought process possibly outweigh any cushion the strengthening Euro may give the I-fund?

Oil is losing support and the UYG/XLF is gaining. USO has fallen into the lower half of its bollinger on the daily charts. Think this is the short term breakdown in oil? Contemplating IFT'ing to more C/S/or I.

Looking closer at USO/oil makes me want to buy USO if it test and finds support in the $108 area though.

if USO drops below 109.60, looks like a good time to jump into UYG at $19.79... hope I don't get stopped out @ 19.50. We're at that pivot point now and nearing the 2:30 close for NYMEX. I went in today w/ S fund. Takin' a shot. But will bail fast with a tight stop. Hope y'all had a great independence day.

just loaded the boat on UWM (Russell 2000 ultra) at $44.45, set stop-loss at $43.57. Now's the time to take a chance, eh?

no volume, on the SPY... you'd think think some big boys would be taking a shot here, but they're not yet. Not a good sign.

Originally Posted by fedgolfer

no volume, on the SPY... you'd think think some big boys would be taking a shot here, but they're not yet. Not a good sign.

Thank you for pointing this out. I really want to jump in, but I feel like the big spenders want the market to drop further before they jump in.

here's comes some late day volume -- program buy/PPT manipulation/short squeeze? Or more institutional investors unloading to the retails schmucks (like me).

this looks like the start to a definitive capitulation candlestick. Especially on the XLF/UYG. still no real bailout news only talk.

here's a list of the XLF's top 10 holdings by %age:

AMER EXPRESS INC AXP 2.75
AMER INTL GROUP INC AIG 4.98
BK OF AMERICA CP BAC 7.76
BANK OF NY MELLON CP BK 2.61
CITIGROUP INC C 5.86
GOLDMAN SACHS GRP GS 3.58
JP MORGAN CHASE CO JPM 7.5
US BANCORP USB 2.95
WACHOVIA CP WB 2.6
WELLS FARGO & CO NEW WFC 4.67

meredith whitney was on bloomberg today screaming that the financials are dead, she even added, "did I make myself clear?!" I missed Art Cashen's trader's edge at 8:50 AM on CNBC, he usually calls it fair and seemingly without agenda. Did anyone hear him? My radio cut out when he said the dollar was at a tipping point. Whitney's agenda, i'm not so sure about, she's been calling it right for a good ways, but the financials looks so dead that if it goes any further... than we're going to get in a free fall that will disolve the financial landscape as we see it. i don't think it will get that far since the GSE's only have a 1.25% default rate... FNM/FRE don't have significant subprime exposure. This all seems so overdone, and feels like an orchestrated shakeout.

On the other hand, If the free fall starts I will bail and admit I'm dead wrong.