We all know that nothing is a sure thing. It's all in our own temperament. If it hurts to lose, don't play!!! Stay in the G fund. Its's safe there. There is also no real money to be made there. If you need more than the 4.6% to 5.2% you're getting out of the G fund to retire, then you have to play the game. That means sometimes you win, and sometimes you don't. You need to change your paradigm. You are not going to win all the time. But you need to put your money where you have the greatest chance of winning over the long haul. My observation has been, and continues to be that the Ebbchart is the most successful avenue to attain the best results. Ebb and the other top players continue to get it right MOST of the time....but not all the time. Being true to yourself doesn't mean second guessing others. It means figuring out who you are and what you can handle. If you can handle a few down days, and are smart enough not to ride it to the bottom (like I did after 9/11), then play the market. If losing makes you feel bad, and ruins your whole day, then stay in the G fund and live with it or get out of the TSP and go to a self-directed IRA. IT's your money...it's your choice. I'm in it, and read TSPtalk every day, so I will never just stay in the market and let it take me to the bottom again.
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