Thread: Rod's Account Talk

100% G effective 31 Aug.

Rod wrote:

100% G effective 31 Aug.

C'mon Rod, you usually stick these things out. It's just a breather, it's going up. (Am I trying to convince myself?)

Still hanging with ya timer..............:#

Timer and Milk,

Good luck. I am with Hot Rod (100% G Fund). This is not Vegas...the risk reward is againstus right now:endI feel).

MT

Yesterday's pullback was "expected", I still think we'll be okay. Unless of course the RNC get's blown up or something. But I really don't see that happening. It's been almost 3 years since 9/11. Anything happen? I think New York was a great call. You know the people that live are "looking for anything suspicious". :shock:

Milk,

The rest of the week:
[*]Tuesday morning, the Conference Board, a private research firm, will release its closely watched gauge of consumer confidence for August. Economists expect the index to dip to 103 from 106.1 in July. (bad news)


[*]Also on Tuesday, NAPM-Chicago will release its index of August business activity in the Chicago region. Economists expect the index to fall to 60 from 64.7 in July. (bad news)


[*]Wednesday morning brings the Institute for Supply Management's gauge of national manufacturing activity in August. Economists expect the index to dip to 59.9 from 62 in July. (bad news)


[*]Thursday morning, the Labor Department will report on new jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 28. Claims rose to 343,000 in the week ending Aug. 21. (last thursday was bad because of a bad report) Repeat?


[*]In a separate report, the department will publish its revised estimate of productivity growth in the second quarter. Economists expect productivity grew at a revised 2.8 percent rate, versus an initial reading of 2.9 percent. (bad news)


[*]Friday morning brings the August report on unemployment and nonfarm payrolls. Economists expect payrolls grew by 150,000 jobs, compared with 32,000 in July. The jobless rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to hold steady at 5.5 percent. (could be very horrible). WIth the unemployment claims raising I see a miss again. Bad thing 150K is the amount of new people coming into the job market - if we can not even make that job growth the economy is not growing but stagnant - in my opionion.


Later Friday morning, the ISM releases its gauge of service-sector activity in August. That index is expected to dip to 62 from 64.8 in July. (more bad news)
The risk reward to me looks negative.

MT

Always the pessimist!! LOL Just kidding, even if we do pullback all week, I don't expect it to be much. We'll get it back and then some next week. Bad news is good news right? :P

Milk,

What are your thoughts on the job report? I feel if we have a bad week then a horrible job report a lot of folks are going to chuck the towel in. Both I hope for the best for you. I just feel there are times to be in the market and times to hunker down and see a positive trend.

MT

I''m not all that worried about jobs reports. From what I remember, most companies beat expectations for the 2Q. That should factor into more jobs later no?

Timer wrote:

Rod wrote:

100% G effective 31 Aug.

C'mon Rod, you usually stick these things out. It's just a breather, it's going up. (Am I trying to convince myself?)

I know I do... but my "gut" told me to "hide".

Famous last works Milk.

"I am not worried about the job report."

IMO - this is the make or break for Pres Bush. If we get a horrible report like last month (dow fell 169, NASDAQ 44) that will sway a lot of undecided.

Companies do not make reports. State governments report to the fed gov (BLS) who compiles the report. From what I remember the weekly unemployment reports have been pretty bad the previous three weeks.

News for August 2004:

Nortel reported a couple thousand lay offs.

Disney reported big lay offs.

Bank of America reported big lay offs.

Fleet Bank reported big lay offs

Lycos laid of 20%

Toys R' Us reported lay offs

for the month of August (just a flavor). I did not see many stories of hirings for August. Have you???

I wish you well. Risk reward is not tilted in the right way to me right now.

Good luck!

MT