350zCommtech's Account Talk

**poolman** · 02-05-2008, 07:54 PM

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

Yup, ECB will probably hold and BOE will probably cut, which means the doller will be going up on Thursday.

Cisco reports after the bell on Wednesday. Might not be good.

True about Cisco. I saw that today also. Probably good you are in F.

**kar_crazy** · 02-05-2008, 08:11 PM

great call with Fffrog pond ,i am with the rest love to read your input even though i am now feeding on the bottem

**350zCommTech** · 02-06-2008, 02:18 AM

Originally Posted by kar crazy

great call with Fffrog pond ,i am with the rest love to read your input even though i am now feeding on the bottem

Thanks kar crazy.

Folks, this is a must see video:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...rdG5sezkPs.asf

**Fivetears** · 02-06-2008, 02:54 AM

Thanks for the link 350z.
It'll be interesting to see how this continues to unfold.

**350zCommTech** · 02-06-2008, 03:31 AM

Originally Posted by Fivetears

Thanks for the link 350z.
It'll be interesting to see how this continues to unfold.

Fivetears,

I'm afraid it's going to be very, very bad. You might have noticed, lately, that there have been a lot of press releases from the top rating agencies about how they are about to, getting ready to, or might downgrade so and so bond insurers, etc.....

IMO, these are warnings. Downgrades are coming. In a recent article, they said that they will give the bond insurers until the end of February to secure enough capital. Folks are thinking they will downgrade after OPEX.

The market might crash before any of these guys get downgraded.

Btw, if you have money in Citibank or Bank of America, you might want to move it somewhere else.

I have Chase and I'm thinking about diversifying into a local bank. I might also keep some cash at home just in case.

**Fivetears** · 02-06-2008, 03:39 AM

Agree. Watching this too:
Bubble Trouble: Could the Treasury Market Be Due for a Rapid Price Deflation?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080205/treasury_bubble.html

**350zCommTech** · 02-06-2008, 04:04 AM

Originally Posted by Fivetears

Agree. Watching this too:
Bubble Trouble: Could the Treasury Market Be Due for a Rapid Price Deflation?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080205/treasury_bubble.html

LOL!!!

The headline is definitely scary for F funders, but I disagree with the reporter. The one thing that is going to experience a rapid price deflation is the stock market.

The Feds started cutting in August and the target is now at 3.00%, but we are not officially in a recession yet? I'm feeling pretty safe in the F fund at the moment.

When one of the major CDS bond insurer goes BK or gets downgraded, the F fund will really take off. On the other hand, if there is a bailout, the F fund will get killed. I'm betting there won't be a real bailout.

**Fivetears** · 02-06-2008, 04:11 AM

All these bubbles!

**Uptrend** · 02-06-2008, 04:24 AM

I am a little scared of F and this is why. If you go look on the TSP.gov website you can see that some of the bond investmenst are non-government such as corporate. From the fund sheets for F

"The LBA Index consists of high quality fixed-income securities with maturities of more than one year. The index is comprised of Treasury and Agency bonds, asset-backed securities, and corporate and non-corporate bonds"

To what degree will the F fund slide if those securities or corporate bonds get down-graded by insurers? We know 40% of the index are government related, but what about the other 60%?

**350zCommTech** · 02-06-2008, 04:43 AM

Originally Posted by Uptrend

I am a little scared of F and this is why. If you go look on the TSP.gov website you can see that some of the bond investmenst are corporate. From the fund sheets for F

"The

LBA Index consists of high quality fixed-income securities with maturities of more than one year. The index is comprisedof Treasury and Agency bonds, asset-backed securities, and corporate and non-corporate bonds"

To what degree will the F fund slide if those securities or corporate bonds get down-graded by insurers? We know 40% of the index are government related, but what about the other 60%?

Yes, I've seen that and I don't think that the TSP site has the correct data. Form what I can tell, it seems more like it's 90% treasury. How else could I have been accurately calculating the F fund payout just by using the 10yr and the 30yr bond yields?

Besides that, the real problem with the bond insurers are related to CDO's and CDS's that are mainly made up of MBS (residential and commercial mortgage backed securities).

I am extremely confident that when a downgrade of ABK or MBIA happens, the markets will tank and the F fund will shoot to the moon.

**pogo** · 02-06-2008, 09:04 AM

Originally Posted by 350zCommTech

Yes, I've seen that and I don't think that the TSP site has the correct data. Form what I can tell, it seems more like it's 90% treasury. How else could I have been accurately calculating the F fund payout just by using the 10yr and the 30yr bond yields?

Besides that, the real problem with the bond insurers are related to CDO's and CDS's that are mainly made up of MBS (residential and commercial mortgage backed securities).

I am extremely confident that when a downgrade of ABK or MBIA happens, the markets will tank and the F fund will shoot to the moon.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor...1&Symbol=WFBIX
here is a little better break down on the f-fund

**350zCommTech** · 02-06-2008, 03:50 PM

Reminder:

Cisco reports today after the bell. I'm expecting a not so good outlook.

Tomorrow, we will get jobless claims, pending home sales, and a couple of home builder earnings. DR. Horton might suck.

I don't see a need to burn 1 of my 2 transfers. I'm staying in the F fund.