Thread: AIF's Account Talk

Hi AIF,
I generally start with the Home Page for current yak. Then the Members board - New posts. However, the forums have a wealth of knowledge. If you find something worth while while surfing the WWW you can link it in your post. Ifn you run into a problem give us a PM and we can give it a fix (no charge)..........Enjoy.............Rgds.........Sp af............

Originally Posted by AIF

I figure I need to start sometime... I've enjoyed watching the past few weeks. Any pointers on what to read are appreciated.

I'm in the newbie stage of trying to interpret the charts. I think I see potential for C and S. Some filters and indicators seem conflicting to me. I'll join the crowd and side more with caution and see what the end of the day analysis says.

Originally Posted by AIF

Some filters and indicators seem conflicting to me.

What do you see that seems conflicting?

Conflicting is not the correct term. It’s more like my inability to interpret them correctly. Maybe you tell me if my understanding is correct.

I decided not to go F Fund because the Bollinger Bands show contracting. My understanding is that contracting bands warn that the market is about to trend. The bands first converge into a narrow neck (which is what I see), followed by a sharp price movement. The first is often a false move preceding a strong trend in the opposite direction. Since I have no real clue what direction that might be I decided a wait and see policy would be best for that. Also the Commodity Channel Index (Dy:20) was above the Overbought/Oversold Level (mine are set at 100 and -100 and I have no idea if that’s correct) and the MACD line was running parallel to the MACD Signal (Dy:26:12 and Dy:26:12:9).

I decided to stay out of the I Fund for similar reasons except the Commodity Channel Index was near -75 and rising.

I thought going into the C Fund might be safe. The Bollinger Bands showed narrowing the day before and the price seemed to be moving up. The MACD was getting ready to cross the MACD Signal. I guess the part that did not register was that the Commodity Channel Index was at 200, 100 more than my Overbought/Oversold Level. The Slow Stochastic lines (%K Dy:5:3 SMA and %Dy:3 SMA) were both trending upward which past patterns to me indicated upward price, but I just read tonight to never go long when Stochastic is overbought. On the 13th the C Fund seemed to be overbought.

As for the S Fund, the price was raising, the MACD was trending up and away from the Signal line. The Slow Stochastic was moving up but again showed to be above the Overbought Line so I guess that’s where I may have missed the call. Also when I look back at the Williams %R it was well above the overbought level which I understand now is an indicator to go short. I have another chart I look at called Rainbow. I think I look at it because I like all the colors but all the Moving Averages were going up.

I saw many people talk about Option Day. I do not know what that means but will do some research. It sounds like a volatile time to be in any fund.

This is all very new to me but I’m determined to try to get an understanding of what is happening. There is a question I have though. On my charts I’m tracking the C Fund with SP 500 Index [SPX] but at the bottom of the TSP Talk page the Yahoo Finance link goes to S&P 500 Index, RTH (^GSPC). Is the Yahoo chart different from the one I’m using and should I be looking for ^GSPC vice SPX ?

Today, I’m in the same boat. Not sure which way to go. Maybe G just to watch a little longer! Thanks for reading.

My analysis of the charts show caution but the market seems to be reacting differently. I hope it's not greed.

Greed Is Good!

Do you think the market follows the charts or perhaps the charts follow the market? You have to remain anticipatory - and run in front of the train.

I understand that the charts are only a picture of the markets history, not its future. I've seen many discussions that analysis of the charts could be totally useless. Who really knows?

Originally Posted by AIF

I understand that the charts are only a picture of the markets history, not its future. I've seen many discussions that analysis of the charts could be totally useless. Who really knows?

For indices, maybe the charts are less predictive. For individual stocks/companies, the price can chart can show some internal company problems, Enron comes immediately to mind. Candelstick charts were developed to determine future price of rice in China, "What's that got to do with the price of TEA in China" you ask?

Actually, it's Japanese Candelsticks

Early analysis of today’s charts looks like there may be some correction to yesterday’s gains.

In my historic charts C Fund shows Oversold and does not have a good start today. For the S Fund the Stochastic %K has crossed the %D SMA and is trending upward which to me indicates going long. The S Fund is also not showing to be Oversold but it moving in that direction. The F Fund by my charts seems to be a good choice but does not look to be doing so well this morning. The I Fund looks like it might be a good choice for today also but early indications look like it may be making a correction form yesterday.

Bottom line: I think I’m going to protect some of my gains from yesterday and only venture slightly into the S Fund and I Funds at 15% each and park the remaining 70% in G.

Looks like some early morning consolidation taking place in C & I Funds. S Fund Continues its forward march. F Fund is off today.

Where do we post questions about the Excel Tracker?

Thanks, AIF