Thread: ChemEng's Account talk...

Originally Posted by Griffin

I wouldn't call a bounce from here a second dead cat. I'd call it dip buyer bait, and I may take it for a one day run in the S.

You beat me too it! I was relooking my charts and noticed what looks like an inflection point in the 20 day SMA forming in the C, S, and I funds. I posted the I funds chart, because it has the most drastic change. (I tried to show it with the black lines.)

I am rethinking buying into S now. The short term hop its taking has a high probability of putting me on the wrong side of the trade.

In a large part, today's decision comes down to an accurate guess on the markets reaction to the beige book. I expect the general tone of the report to be slightly positive, but also reserved. If the report is unexpectedly overtly positive, we could see some more upward movement setting us up for some profit taking. I don't see this as likely - there are still plenty of indicators suggesting economic slowdown. The other side, is it comes in more critical then expected, I see this as a definite possibility given retail conditions, and the market's reaction Monday to the Black Friday news.

Retail is just one part of the report, so I am going to move on the assumption that the report will not be a market mover. If the S&P is still foating above 1395 going into the bell, I will hop on the S-train

I see there being 3 possible outcomes from the biege book today:

1. It has no impact on today's market activity and continues strong upward move.
2. It slows today's advances (without retreat).
3. It takes the steam from markets and all morning gains fall off.

I think that the second option is probably the most likely to occur (~85% likely), with the third being the least likely (~5% likely). If the S fund moves sideways for the rest of the day, then we are looking at buying in @ $18.63/share. (Im showing a gain of 1.06% right now.)

Additionally, in order for a move into S to be successful by tomorrow, 2 things have to happen:

1. Buy low today in expectation that tomorrow will go up.
2. Buy in today in expectation that tomorrow will go up.

The first option is irrelevant because of the low probability of third options occurance.

In the past 10 TSP trading days, the S fund has been over the $18.63/share price 40% of the time. (More recently, in the past 6 days, its been over that hump 66% of the time.) There is the added plus that should this move occur tomorrow, it will take S into the price range it was at the end of last week.

So Im guesstimating a move into S today will have little more than a coin-flip's chance of being successful. (roughly 56.1% )

Im still leaning to stay out today. The new channel that is being carved out will have lower highs than the past few months and will reduce the potential head room available for tomorrow. Will see...

50/50 sounds about right, but if it's not a solid green day, I think I will get a least one day to slip out before the serious selling starts.

The bull/bear ratio is now about even after steadily drifting from a predominance of bulls. The inflection point is near. The Holiday earning season is now fully priced into the market, anything indicating that payoff will be less then expectated is going to jolt the market. Now there are enough bears to make that jolt substantial. I see the consumer credit report next Wednesday as a good candidate for the catalyst.

Caution is warranted. I think your choice to stay on the sideline is well justified.

Originally Posted by Griffin

I think your choice to stay on the sideline is well justified.

Thanks. Im learning that there is always reasons to stay on the sidelines... However, like our Kentucky lotto reminds us of everwhere, "You cant win if you dont play." I need to get better at converting this inertia into action and choose the coin-flips Im comfortable with. Good luck with yours tomorrow.

Thanks,

I'm getting less thrilled with my decision by the minute.

The way the S&P got rejected at the 1400 line has me a bit nervous. If it can't get back above 1400 and hold within the next couple of days, Tom may get the break he's been patiently waiting for.

Originally Posted by Griffin

Thanks,

I'm getting less thrilled with my decision by the minute.

The way the S&P got rejected at the 1400 line has me a bit nervous. If it can't get back above 1400 and hold within the next couple of days, Tom may get the break he's been patiently waiting for.

The slide might have been nervousness ahead of the Beige Book. Getting a little bounce. Waiting to see if it holds.

No doubt ww,.....the beige book summary was a little more pessimistic then I expected, but still mostly reserved optimism - of course, the source of the optimism is directly tied to the holiday season and high tech trends. A non-market mover today....but indicitive of what is to come as we approach the end of the shopping season.

It will be interesting to see if consumers divert money from retail to recapturing lost travels from the summer. This could be an excellent season for the travel industry. If so, it could help to bouy the market into the new year.

Looks like Ill be out of the pool again today. Someone give me a reason to jump? Please?

Originally Posted by ChemEng

Looks like Ill be out of the pool again today. Someone give me a reason to jump? Please?

Because it's fun?

And watch the dollar fall... Its at $82.9 now.