Thread: Fireant's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Fireant

Cancelled the move... stayed in the I... I simply love losing money... no just hoping for a bounce so maybe I can get out... probably won't be able to get out and will lose more... oh well such is life... DA FIREANT

We've all been there. One of the worst situations to get caught up in is the slope of hope. Of course, we don't know what tomorrow brings, but sometimes it's better to hit the reset button and start fresh. It's a marathon afterall. Good luck!

Originally Posted by Bullitt

I liken it to riverboat gambling.

OWWW. I resemble that remark.

Man glad that's over... I liken these last 2 weeks to a root canal... I sit on the sidelines for the most part from Mar to Jan and then I make the brilliant decision to get in when I've told myself it will retest... oh well... live and learn... believe it is going further down and couldn't stand the hand I had... all I... later... DA FIREANT

I'm lov'in your move from G to I today - for Monday. The late fall in the dollar, and surge in stocks... it doesn't get any better than that. Nice!

No move is nice until it is over and you get some green... I've dug a huge hole this year and just hoping for a little bounce... gl and I hope it was a good move but next week will tell... DA FIREANT

If it makes you feel any better, in Jan 2009 I lost 10.01% yea that kinda sucked. I actually was down as much as 13% that month. This Jan I was down 5.20% does this mean I'm twice as good as last year?

Rolling... OVER????

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Here’s a sobering thought as earnings season begins in earnest:
There have been only four other occasions over the last century when equity valuations were as high as they are now, according to a variant of the price-earnings ratio that has a wide following in academic circles. Stocks on each of those four occasions would soon suffer big declines.
This modified P/E was made famous in the late 1990s by Yale University professor Robert Shiller, particularly in his book “Irrational Exuberance.” In this modified P/E, the denominator is not current earnings per share but average inflation-adjusted earnings over the trailing 10 years. This modified ratio — sometimes called P/E10, or CAPE (for Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio) — has a markedly better forecasting record than the simple P/E.

According to Shiller’s website, the CAPE currently is 23.5, or some 43% higher than the CAPE’s long-term historical average. The four previous occasions over the last 100 years that saw the CAPE as high as they are now:

• The late 1920s, right before the 1929 stock market crash
• The mid-1960s, prior to the 16-year period in which the Dow went nowhere in nominal terms and was decimated in inflation-adjusted terms
• The late 1990s, just prior to the popping of the internet bubble
• The period leading up to the October 2007 stock market high, just prior to the Great Recession and associated credit crunch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/his...ket-2011-04-12

2008 Was The Preview To The 2011 Blockbuster

By: Tony Pallotta | Mon, Apr 11, 2011
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The world is evolving a lot faster than I suspect most realize. The Fed has created the aura of a V shaped global recovery in the form of continually rising equity markets. Bernanke has created the mirage of prosperity. The unemployment rate has fallen below 9% as more disgruntled workers leave the work force. Paper stock wealth is up nearly 100% in two years. Indeed the Russell 2000 is up 43% since QE2 as the chairman has so eloquently declared.
The similarities between 2008 and today are very real with a few exceptions. In 2008 the US Treasury market was far healthier, government austerity was a few years down the road and there was no global revolution. In reality 2011 is far more dangerous than 2008. Government is no longer a source of stimulus. The measly $38.5 billion, or 2% of the 2011 deficit that was cut is a negative stimulus. $110 oil today is driven by speculators as in 2008 but also by wars in the Middle East. That was not the case in 2008 (Iraq oil was flowing freely). In 2008 interest rates were falling as the Fed lowered short terms rates very aggressively. Today they are rising.
In 2008 housing prices were still falling but programs like tax credits and HAMP where there to stem the slide. Today home prices are falling again yet those programs are no longer available. Today, a true free market is the only source of price discovery aided by dwindling bank credit. FASB accounting prevented a major run on bank balance sheet capital levels in the spring of 2009. Today there are few if any accounting games left.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/205...11-blockbuster