Thread: TRAFFIC_DOG's account talk

60c 25s 15i cob

Moved from C Fund thread.....

Originally Posted by Birchtree

A $130K gain is marvelous - you should join the automated tracker so the rest of us can see how it's done.

As you well know, it's done by getting out of equities when they are relatively overbought ..... and more importantly avoiding declining markets. And...... not being too greedy. Cutting the easy fat off the hog.

This means ...... (holding hands to cheeks in astonishment)..... going into the G Fund.

This takes GUTS, because as you also well know by your above silly calculation, there's little money to be made there. This means every time you are out of the market, you are risking unrealized gains. This can be just as painfull as the losses.

You are well liked here and seem like a good fellow, but ridiculing those working hard to beat the game..... while claiming as a virtue suffering huge losses is just nuts.

Tom's must read daily commentary, combined with others on the MB give the folks all the tools to out perform the markets. I have developed a very disciplined money management approach. This money management is UNTEACHABLE in my opinion..... it must be learned viscerally.

Thank you Tom for what must be tons of thankless work to provide this forum which helps so many.

1,600 posts (since last June) telling everyone to disregard all the great information provided here and learn to enjoy watching one's retirement assets dwindle is nothing more than jamming the airwaves with static while others are trying to watch the programming.

Recap.... Tom has helped me realize my #1 objective.

Never ever endure another 2000-2002 bear market. Mission accomplished.... so far.

Never sell strategies are for those without either the knowlege or the stomach to get in the arena.

Let me just say, I have a real bur under my saddle for the institutional buy and hold propaganda.

It don't cut it!

I'm no financial genius, but I am driven to find a fairly risk averse method of out performing the S&P 500.

I don't post much in the way of philosophy or specific predictions because, quite frankly, by the time I finish doing my homework, I'm too tired of thinking about it to write a post. Plus, I'm no guru. Maybe I'll throw more out some time, but I'll say as encouragement to others......

Since 01/01/04 the C fund has averaged 6.8% per year.

I have averaged over 14% per year (of course not including contributions)

That is double the market's rate of return for 4 and one half years.

My point being simply that..............

IT CAN BE DONE, AND DONE CONSISTENTLY.... YEAR OVER YEAR.

So hang in there.

I will talk later about why it is so important to stay in the game, take your knocks and learn.

Traffic Dog, you've been away for so long and suddenly appeared with a charge lit!

Just be careful out there. Don't fall for the other Wall Street trap of 'outperformance'. 4 years is still a relatively short period in the long run, especially given the fact that the past 4 years was a raging over leveraged bull market. Everyone gets humbled in the end. Look at Bill Miller who is one of the most respected fund managers out there. 14 years of outperformance and boy does he have egg on his face this year with CFC, BSC and YHOO.

Depends on the interpretation of buy and hold. Buying an Index Fund and adding to it periodically or reinvesting the dividends over time will most certainly put more than a few market timers to shame.

Great job on your outperformance. Good luck keeping the streak alive and watch out for sharks in the water!

Originally Posted by FUTURESTRADER

The weekly charts of S&P 500 and EFA (or BTAEX) have rolled over from overbought but the weekly DWCPF is still holding in overbought and showing increasing strength.

There's still plenty of room for more up side to this rally... the weekly charts aren't due to bottom out to oversold until July... IMO

Originally Posted by Bullitt

Just be careful out there.

No worries.

My capital management strategy has been a long time in the making.
I'm 49..... and have learned from the many mistakes. I have a large balance to protect for my family as the first priority........

That's why I don't go for homeruns, but instead "go with the pitch".

It works in both up and down trending markets.

I'm currently 70% equities..... and feel comfortable I'll be able to exit higher and enter lower.

Originally Posted by Bullitt

... especially given the fact that the past 4 years was a raging over leveraged bull market.

mmmmmm......

Last year the C fund was 5% while I was 14.9%.

YTD the C fund is minus 8% (not a lot of raging bull there) ...while I am plus 7%.

Again the point is not my greatness..... but to keep plugging and do not give in to the "weak stick" buy and hold/diversify and forget mentality.

We are all going to live a long time in retirement......
It is sobering to look at retirement account draw downs based on the status of the market in the first couple of years of one's retirement. Market squatters are slaves to market conditions for which they have no expertise to deal with.

The Game can, and needs to be beaten.

The volume of people who pay homage to a C fund squatter tells me there is too much mental weakness out in TSP Talk land.

Maybe I can help change that someday....... with a longer record of performance......................

'Til then...........

Now is when I need one good dog that can sniff out the hidden bull manure piles. It's time for a drive by and a few succinct thoughts.

Where are the good sniffers when you need one?