ayla Account Talk

**Birchtree** · 12-09-2006, 07:50 PM

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6468.htm

**fabijo** · 12-10-2006, 02:36 AM

Originally Posted by Birchtree

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6468.htm

Now what in the world?? Why is there always some new type of indicator? I've never heard of a concentric circle pattern. The learning never stops.

**Pilgrim** · 12-10-2006, 02:57 AM

Originally Posted by Birchtree

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6468.htm

From the above:

"If the Fed does not significantly increase M3 in the next few days, market risks will rise substantially."

How do we monitor "M3" and how much of an increase is substantial?

**dell** · 12-10-2006, 01:46 PM

Someone please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe I read where the Fed intends to make it difficult if not impossible to monitor M-3.

Dell

**ayla** · 12-10-2006, 02:07 PM

Originally Posted by dell

Someone please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe I read where the Fed intends to make it difficult if not impossible to monitor M-3.

Dell

Yes, I've heard the same thing. Something happened this past March that let the FEDs off the hook as far as reporting how many dollars they were printing from what I understand. (Bush signed another law that allows government to operate in secret IMO.)

Just did a google search and came up with some hits that indicate some resourceful people are still managing to figure things out (but not exactly):
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...turn_of_m.html
http://www.nowandfutures.com/article..._watching.html

When I asked an investment broker this same question, he told me to look in Barron's on the page headed with MARKET LABORATORY ECONOMIC INDICATORS. He said there will be information about the money supply.

I haven't done this yet. I figure I already know the answer. They are printing like there is no tomorrow, I think.

If anyone has more information about monitoring realtime on the web, I'd be very interested. Might give us more clues about I fund performance in particular, don't ya think? (I'm just guessing here...)

**ayla** · 12-11-2006, 03:58 PM

Moved to 100% F by cob today. I will probably buy into S fund tomorrow because I'm expecting a down day tomorrow. News may change all that.

Other option is of course to buy back into I fund tomorrow but I'm getting a little tired of the volatility of the I fund - seems S fund is a little more predictable and still gives about same results especially if you want to buy and hold.

^VIX is down 6% as I write this which is a lot. A low ^VIX often (though not always) means it will be back up tomorrow and when the VIX is up, it usually means the US market will be down. That's when I hope to buy back in, tomorrow or maybe day after.

There is not aways such a correlation with VIX and the market but seems since VIX is forming peaks like it does when the Market has a periodic (4-5 month) downturn (either small or large), the correlation between VIX up and US Market down is a little more predictable. We'll see.

Though it seems that news mostly drives the F fund, main reason I'm "parking" in the F fund is that the %k fast stochastic is looking very over sold so maybe that is a good omen. (Though I rarely have good luck with the F - rolling the dice here..) Another reason is that ^VIX peaks are often good for the F-Fund.

**Fivetears** · 12-12-2006, 01:48 PM

ayla, is this a good PPT slide presentation explaining VIX?
http://www41.homepage.villanova.edu/....ppt#256,1,The FEAR Gauge

**ChemEng** · 12-12-2006, 01:55 PM

Very interesting link. Thanks for sharing!!

**fabijo** · 12-12-2006, 02:05 PM

ayla,

I just want to say thanks for your research into the VIX. I think its great how people on this board are sharing their views and letting their theories be tested and analyzed by everyone else.

Fab

**ayla** · 12-12-2006, 02:33 PM

Originally Posted by Fivetears

ayla, is this a good PPT slide presentation explaining VIX?
http://www41.homepage.villanova.edu/....ppt#256,1,The FEAR Gauge

Thanks VERY much for the link. Helps in my learning curve. I didn't know about the VXN NASDAQ volatility index. So many indexes, so little time, LOL. Gotta plot this one and check it out. We own some GOOG and APPL stock so this might be VERY helpful.

I especially appreciate the fact that it agrees with my assessment (like I'm a real expert here, LOL), that when the VIX is low it doesn't really tell us anything except that a downturn is not in the immediate future. When the VIX is high (on a given day), market is usually down though because the I fund has other issues such as FV and its international elements, not always as useful for us TSPers as we would like it to be.

As far as the other info, a lot of it was over my head because my knowledge of options, and put/calls is about zero. That is next to learn in my attempts to understand the market. If anyone has a good link (there seem to be so many to choose from) or book, let me know. I have a huge gap in this area.

Thanks again.

**FUTURESTRADER** · 12-12-2006, 03:22 PM

Originally Posted by ayla

Thanks VERY much for the link. Helps in my learning curve. I didn't know about the VXN NASDAQ volatility index. So many indexes, so little time, LOL. Gotta plot this one and check it out. We own some GOOG and APPL stock so this might be VERY helpful.

I especially appreciate the fact that it agrees with my assessment (like I'm a real expert here, LOL), that when the VIX is low it doesn't really tell us anything except that a downturn is not in the immediate future. When the VIX is high (on a given day), market is usually down though because the I fund has other issues such as FV and its international elements, not always as useful for us TSPers as we would like it to be.

As far as the other info, a lot of it was over my head because my knowledge of options, and put/calls is about zero. That is next to learn in my attempts to understand the market. If anyone has a good link (there seem to be so many to choose from) or book, let me know. I have a huge gap in this area.

Thanks again.

ayla,

A tidbit for further $VIX understanding: The intraday charts of the S$P 500 and the $VIX are mirror image inverses.

See below link for more on options:

http://www.optionsnerd.com/

**ayla** · 12-12-2006, 03:37 PM

I just went to 100% G fund - largely a gamble. Looking at charts from previous VIX activity, seems like we could have a really squirrely day tomorrow. Even the F fund might lose a penny along with everything else going south. Why lose a penney if I don't have to?

Major conjecture here - being a bit nervous doesn't help much and of course the NEWS today will make a big difference.

But if my conjecture is right, I'm thinking tomorrow will be a great day to buy into S fund. We'll see.

Originally Posted by FUTURESTRADER

ayla,
A tidbit for further $VIX understanding: The intraday charts of the S$P 500 and the $VIX are mirror image inverses.

See below link for more on options:

http://www.optionsnerd.com/

Thanks Futures - will check on the "intraday" stuff. I registered in optionsnerd but haven't looked further yet.

I'm thinking that the "inverse image" relationship is only true during this
particular time when the VIX is going thru its 3-5 month cycle of large peaks and valleys. I know that seems true (for the most part) for the TSP funds comparisons with the VIX closing price. I will be interested to see what happens to intraday prices when the VIX is going thru its "low activity" cycle.