Thread: mlk_man's account talk

YTD 100% S fund buy and hold through 8/19 = -1.87%

YTD 100% S fund buy and hold through 8/20 =-.32%

YTD 20% in each fund buy and hold through 8/19 .70%

YTD 20% in each fund buy and hold through 8/20 1.09%

Wow,3.95% is a pretty big discrepancy! Is it -5.82% or -1.87% this year for S Fund "buy and holders"?

How did you figure -5.82%? Tom's numbers on his "results" page are different for YTD (it is much less of a negative number). Are you assuming that people have been dollar cost averaging each pay period, maybe?



P.S.-Are we putting "new money anywhere, with the rise in the averages?

Joel

I always put all my new money in the G fund to be on the "safe" side and it's easier than having to worry about when it goes in and where I should put it.

Actually Pete1 was more correct than myself on buy and holders. I must of subtracted twice or something. I just go to the TSP home page and use their monthly return section for each fund then I figured out August myself. So, if only invested in S fund, buy and holders are +0.45 for the year. They are down -.40% for Aug. But, if you take the S share price to start the year, $12.48 and subtract the current price, $12.44, it is -.32% for the year like Pete said. Maybe TSP did something different, who knows.

I am presently up 12.65% for the year if only invested in the S fund. Don't feel like figuring the rest of em out. :P

Thanks for clearing that up for us Pete1.

mlk_man wrote:

Well I've decided to stick with my guns and stay 100%S fund. The moving averages chart has hit a critical point. The fast moving average has moved back up to the intermediate moving average. This happened a couple of weeks ago but it was unable to break through and instead began to decline again. Hopefully this time it will bust through and we'll see more gains.

Keep hope alive!!!

Currentlly up 11.1% for the year. :^Buy and holders, if only invested in the S fund, are -5.82% for the year.

Well, Friday we did break through the intermediate moving average. Hopefully it will continue for awhile. :^

No problem.

So are we "buying" yet with new money (the amount in the G fund) or are we waiting for another oppurtunity?

Joel

That is actually just a personal call you'll have to make. I usually just leave mine in the G fund till I move my other money back in the G then move everything at once. Usually only in there a couple months at most so I really don't get too concerned about it.

Okay all, "tweaking" my "system" again. Sorry, lol. Not making a move right now, still 100% S, just wanted to explain what I'm gonna do when I do move so it can soak in.

I'm going to add "dollar cost averaging" to the mix. This is sort of what I did last time I had a "buy" signal. On July 16th I got a "buy" signal for the S at $12.65 so I went 50% S effective July 17th. (I was already 100% C at the time). As we know, prices continued to fall. On July 23rd I decided to go 100% S effective July 24th. This means I was able to "buy" S at $12.18 for a "dollar cost average" per share of $12.41. This afforded me the opportunity to make more money.

That being said, I'm actually up for the month instead of being down. I'm still waiting for another "sell" signal. If I was doing 30-day moving averages instead of 60-day, I'd have a "sell" signal now at $12.48. But, my 60-day signal is $12.80 right now so I'm sticking to it. Will probably drop more in the coming days because we are losing those big days in June.

So my system now includes 4 basic strategies:

1) my origanal idea of buying at 20centsunder the 60-day moving average and selling at30 cents over(unless we are in a down-trending market, as we have been, then the concept is inverted. ( I may end up changing this to a % rather than an actual price at some point something like 2.5% instead of 30 cents, and 1.5% instead of 20cents)

2)Follow 5-day(fast), 21-day(intermediate), and 63-day(slow) moving averages. The fast moving average for the S fund was quickly heading back up to the slow average but has now leveled off a bit. Scares me a little bit.

3)"Dollar cost averaging". I explained this earlier and I believe it may afford me the opportunity to make even more money.

4) Average market sentiment. You have to pay attention to things happening around you. Though most of the time I don't listen. :PBut, ifsomeone blew up the RNC, would you stay in the market?

That's it. Just wanted to let whoever follows this know what I'm going to be doing so you can research it if you like.

Currently up 15.03% for the year. :^

Not to be negative. But if something gets blown up I will go 100% C fund.

At tspmoney.com there is a lot of flashing red lights right now. What is your view on the job report?

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Short Range
1/3/13 Day
Moving Averages





Short Range
3/13/39 Day
Moving Averages





Medium Range
13/39/50 Day
Moving Averages





Long Range
39/50/100 Day
Moving Averages



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Lot''s of green in the short range. I really don't think too much about it to be honest. I try to keep this as simple as possible and still make money. I may not time it right every day,, but eventuallly I will profit AND keep my sanity. You don't want me to end up like Rolo, I mean ROLO do ya?

Just kidding dude!! :P