Thread: Rolo's Account Talk

I am going to try my hand at technical analysis since I may be onto something with the Japanese candlesticks and trendlines.

Start of this discussion here: Trendlines


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Attached is $SPX as of today. I am not sure what these lines are saying, but it sure looks important.


The rising relative strength leaves me bullish.

The MACD fighting convergence leaves me bullish. The blue line crossing below zero leaves me thinking that this will be a short run-up.

Here is DWCP (S Fund) as of today. A nice Rising Three Methods pattern. Buyers clearly dominated Monday in spite of a nice upswing and an overbought market. Buyers still held against the sellers Tuesday. Buyers threw sellers a bone Wednesday. Buyers kept the dominating sellers in check Thursday, keeping everything withing Monday's (the buyer's) trading range.

I think these past three days was the pullback, a speedbump in a recovering rally in a bull market. I stayed 100% in stocks because I did not want to attempt to time such a short range, in time and in price. I need to master timing the larger swings first, then I may try for the small dips.

My instincts tell me that we are in for a mostly-horizontal-yet-rising-steadily market for a while and this pattern seems to fit the transition to that.

Question from young grasshopper: :dah: <-- (Sensei approximation smiley)

Overbought means we are running out of buyers. Why are we running out of buyers?

If no one is interested in buying because of valuations, thensellers will lower prices, the market will fall. If no one is interested in buying because of supply and demand--as in buyers and sellers are holders and they are both happy where they are--then prices will go up, for there is a lack of supply for those who still wish to buy.

If buyers and sellers alike are holders, then most everyone must be bullish, regardless of what the sentiment index/poll/whatever says. I do not believe in an "undecided". If you are holding, then you are bullish, otherwise you would not be holding. If you are not holding, then you are not bullish and therefore you must be bearish, waiting for a buy point, at which time you will be holding and therefore bullish. Money = mouth, mouth = blaah-blaah-blaah.

Simplified, can an overbought condition be caused buy one of two things: either lack ofsupply or a lack of demand?

A lack of supplycreatesprice-pressure. Buyers pressure sellers to sell with higher bids. The more steadfast the sellers, the more pressure from buyers is required and up goes the price.

What is required to break resistance? Pressure! I think this may explain why support lines and resistance lines are often the same line.

If I understand this correctly, then this may describe the market's condition today, overcoming resistance with pressure, hence, an overbought condition (in this circumstance) is necessary and desirable.

This is what I have been thinking since last week. I think abstractly, so it is impossible for me to articulate my thoughts at first; I have to take time to figure out how to convert them into language.

So, yes, that was all a question. Am I understanding "market forces" correctly so far?

Here is a R3M pattern from last year. You can see it got ugly for a month afterwards. There are some differences between then and now but I cannot explain them.

$SPX from 2001. I think this represents today pretty closely. I just looked at a three year chart and picked a spot that looked like today; this is where I zoomed in first.

heh, First, the "Wow" in there is at the five consecutive identical days. I would have interpreted that as support for certain. Boy am I glad I wasn't in the market yet then.

On the R3M pattern, blend day 2 and day 3 together and you will have a nearly identical representation of this week. I believe Monday will look like day 6, the second long white day, and Tuesday will have a gap up. I do not expect much after Tuesday, maybe a small sag. At the moment, this chart is pretty much what I have in mind for the nextfew weeks.

I am standing pat at 30C/70S, going on the premise that we are now at the resistance-turned-support line.

I wish I had more C and I will adjust soon.The FROis telling me I should do that for Monday close. Thoughts, Frizz?

I am really glad I only see #'s, WHEW. I have re-calculated my FRO, I took the highs and lows of the market and threw 2 of the highs and 2 fo the lows, but I used the numbers that were next in line, then divided by the amt. of numbers I used, . The F diff is between 314 and 266, we just hit the 315 and the way my FRO works we should go down some more, and yes I should of used my first reaction and moved to the G fund when I was going to, but I listened to the expert (Rolo never told me he was only doing this for a year, though he was an expert), and the S fund lost 2 pts. Now you owe me 2 dinners. :dude:

As for the S to C differential, high is 125, low is 86, right now we are at 90. Unless the market has changed since last June, the FRO tells me if you were to play the stocks, it would be in the S fund, but I am still playing the G fund for now. I have been doing some #'s for the G to F fund. In my range it is 9.86 to 9.94, small range, so if the F fund gets below 9.87, right now at 9.89, if I am still in the G fund, I will transfer to the F fund until it goes past 9.91. The I fund is way up there again. My FRO tells me 41 to 14. We are at 47, so the I fund is way to high. But again I am in the G, so doesn't matter to me right now.

Well Rolo, now you have my thoughts. Happy Hunting :dude:

Frizz B. wrote:

I am really glad I only see #'s, WHEW.

LOL!

Frizz B. wrote:

I have re-calculated my FRO, I took the highs and lows of the market and threw 2 of the highs and 2 fo the lows, but I used the numbers that were next in line, then divided by the amt. of numbers I used, . The F diff is between 314 and 266, we just hit the 315 and the way my FRO works we should go down some more

Yes,315 and is now 299. Myrange is currently 285-311. I am counting on it going above 309 one more time.

Frizz B. wrote:

and yes I should of used my first reaction and moved to the G fund when I was going to, but I listened to the expert (Rolo never told me he was only doing this for a year, though he was an expert), and the S fund lost 2 pts. Now you owe me 2 dinners. :dude:

hehe, Hey, I just said what I was doing and why.Now I am going to laugh very hard :uif S closes at $13.07(:}1.5%)or more on Monday, then you will owe me dinner. If not, then I suppose I will have these words as a snack. :x

Now I know how the golden calf felt. :dude: As much as I flap my trap on here, I am sure my limited experience is out in the open. :P It is my disclaimer, my "out", my "get out of jail free card"for when I am totally wrong and make a brass ass of myself.

Does this mean the honeymoon is over?:? rofl

Frizz B. wrote:

As for the S to C differential, high is 125, low is 86, right now we are at 90. Unless the market has changed since last June, the FRO tells me if you were to play the stocks, it would be in the S fund, but I am still playing the G fund for now.

Wouldn't that mean C is the way to go since Sδ is farther from zero-base than Cδ is? (I am thinking for only the next few weeks, not overall, and if you wanted to stay in stocks.)

No, the lower the number, the more I would play the S fund. Last June, the C, S, and I funds were almost equal, since then the S and the I has taken off from the C. So when the Differential is low, play the S, and if the numbers are high, I might think of the C. The only problem has been, the C fund catches up on the S in a losing market. Until the market changes, where the C fund starts to outgain the S in the upswing, I do not play the C fund. Will do some recalculations to see what has happened to the funds in the last 2 months. Later on this weekend I will get to it.

Soooooo, Frizz, when ya comin' to Florida? heh (I can use that egg-smiley now)

Perhaps I should follow the FRO as originally designed before I rebel against it.

I was really looking forward to a long white day today.

I will do the shares/account/$100K thing soon. I have to keep up on it, trying to figure out when I made a transfer and at what price is a PITA and I cannot always figure it out if I forget to follow up on one; TSP's lack of record-keeping on their site blows. Quarterly statements? Paper? Snail mail? Whaa? Get with the 21st century people! Haven't you heard? Algore invented this Internet thing! :dude:

Like Tom says Rolo, my system takes all the thinking away and just follow the numbers. I think you are looking at the numbers and trying to analyze the info that you get from the Stock world. Who knows. The differential is right around 285 now, and probably tommorrow I will be moving back to the Stocks. Are you having trouble figuring out how to change your shares for each fund when you make a trade, with the program that I sent to you. Also, try to send this program to Tom, I have tried and Tom never gets it from me. I think you have to go away from the TSPTALK forum and do it by regular email.

Rolo, I have no plans on Florida, quite a bit away. We will meet when we both retire Millionares from this TSP. This would be a kool thing to do. Have a yearly meeting once we all start to retire and have time on our hands. When we are all millionairs, we can start a standing weekend get away at different locations, each member can have a get together. It would be nice to be able to see each other in person. Just had a thought, we all could meet in Vegas. Even now I could take a weeks vacation and start meeting in Vegas. If no one minds Reno, I go there almost every year, the last weekend in July. In Sparks, Nevada they have a Volleyball tournament, (used to be the National Tourney, but they changed the name). I play men's doubles on Satuday and then Reverse Coed doubles with my wife on Sundays. We have a group between 16 and 30 who go there from the Portland area to play. It would really be kool to stay for a week. We could also rent a condo with 3 to 6 rooms for whoever could make it. It would also be kool to take a weeks vacation on a pleasure boat. There are so many different places to visit in the US. This would give me a good reason to visit them.

So my proposal is: How many TSPTALKERS would like to do a "Same time, different place" weeks vacations get togethers.

Frizz B. wrote:

Like Tom says Rolo, my system takes all the thinking away and just follow the numbers. I think you are looking at the numbers and trying to analyze the info that you get from the Stock world. Who knows.

Yes. The damage done to myself seems to be directly proportional to how much thinking I do. :*

You hit it, too, I am applying single-fast-growing stock-picking logic to this and that is not appropriate. I just need to STFU and listen for a while. :x:u



Frizz B. wrote:

Are you having trouble figuring out how to change your shares for each fund when you make a trade, with the program that I sent to you. Also, try to send this program to Tom, I have tried and Tom never gets it from me. I think you have to go away from the TSPTALK forum and do it by regular email.

Yes, but I plan to spend more time on figuring it out and setting it up; I needed a break. I hate math, heh. I will hook Tom up.

Frizz B. wrote:

Rolo, I have no plans on Florida, quite a bit away. We will meet when we both retire Millionares from this TSP.

Sounds like a plan, on both counts.

Frizz B. wrote:

So my proposal is: How many TSPTALKERS would like to do a "Same time, different place" weeks vacations get togethers.

You should start a new topic. I'm game!

Where's Rolo? :%