Thread: EW_ret Account Talk

It’s a big push up for the stock market today. What a week for the markets. Most everybody expected this big push up in December, but it waited until January. This first week in January 2006 the market indices are in the green +2.9% to +5.4%. That’s a whole month worth of gains in a good month.

I remain G 100%. Sure would be nice to have a crystal ball! Oh well, no risk no gain. I am in the asset preservation mode. Only 32% of my retirement assets are in equities and all my TSP is in G fund. My TSP represents 34% of my retirement assets.

Why fight the momentum? Went 30% into equities today (70% G, 15% C, 5% S, 10% I). Will likely be back to 100% G by Friday.

It appears many are increasing their equity positions today. I guess its safe since Tom is not jumping in.

Since the I Fund should be down today, I am making a inter-fund transfer of 5% from C to I Fund today. I will be 70% G, 10% C, 5% S, and 15% I by COB today.

I had mixed feelings this morning about moving 100% to G, but this would go contrary to my investment strategy. The big unknown is how the PPI report tomorrow will impact the market. I believe it will not be good news this time.

I should have increased my equity position to 50% (25C/10S/15I), but did not follow through because I have this sinking feeling that the market will make sudden move down within the next few days. I finally compromised by maintaining the 30% position in equities.

Today I moved to 85% G and stayed 15% in the I fund. I feel embarrassed on the misread I made on I fund direction yesterday. I thought it would end lower because of the strong dollar (+0.8 % to euro). Now, I believe it smart to stay the course a while longer in an attempt to recover the losses it will experience today. I am praying the C and S funds will have minimal loses today.:

Anticipating a rebound in I Fund tomorrow. Attempting to recover today’s big losses. It’s a gamble!

Well, the anticipated rebound in I fund did not happen. The losses in Japan and Pacific region only increased today. Hope the panic selling does not move to U.S markets. I was considering moving 20% to C Fund today. However, there remains uncertainty in our own markets, and a correction is likely. What is story in Japan markets? I will have to investigate.

I am now in hole for January to tune of about -0.5% in value of my TSP account. Should of gone 100% G fund last Friday, rather that remain in I Fund, and then double my position in I fund yesterday.

Getting "whipsawed" in I fund because I’m not staying the course when markets are down. The I fund kicked my b*t being down 2.63% for two days, and hearing talk that Japan markets had to stop trading due volume of sell orders. Sold the I fund yesterday and absorbed a 0.5% loss in my TSP account. Well, the recover day in I fund is today, rather yesterday as I had anticipated.

I’m putting my foot in the US markets today (80% G, 15% C, and 5% S) and staying the course for a while.

I added 10% to my equity positions in my TSP account today. I will be at 70% G, 20% C, and 10% S at COB today. I will be patient this time and not sell next week if market continues down. Will the S&P500 consolidation be swift and shallow to 1250 or long and deep to below 1200? High oil prices are a big contributor to a market correction.

The mid/small stocks (S Fund) appear stronger this morning, but they now appear to be caving in and the selling has pick up. Will market strengthen this afternoon to minimize losses? This would be good sign. If S&P finishes below 1270 today, I expect continued weakness next week.

I will consider adding to my equity position next week if the S&P500 falls below 1250.

Selling half my small equity position and transferring to the G fund in face of up market today. Just hope we finish up today. Maintaining a small equity position of 10% C and 5% S due to buying high last Thursday.

I was tempted to put money some in I fund today, but changed my mind at last minute. I got burned last week in I fund thinking it would rebound. The weaker dollar today should help offset the losses in I fund today. I’ am confused by disparity in MSI EAFE reading (+1.2%) and my estimated read that I fund should be down more than 0.50% today.

Selling my remaining equity position and transferring all to the G fund. Hope we finish up today. Retreating to the safety of G fund and await the next down trend.

I was again tempted to place a small amount in the I fund, as others are doing. The I fund should finish near unchanged today. I did not follow through because I got burned last week thinking I fund would rebound.

I keep telling myself to be patient, and let the market pullback at least 3%. I’m still 100% G and waiting for a pullback to below 1260 in the S&P500 before I ease back into equities. It’s hard to be patient when you see the market surge ahead like what we saw Thursday and Friday of last week.

I also need to be patient when I am in equities. If I had stayed with my equity position (20% C, 10% S) through Friday of last week, I would now be positive for January. This would have added +0.467%. Instead I ended up negative for January with –0.34%. Patience, I need to find this virtue.

I need to stop worrying about losing dollars in my TSP and stay the course with a 30-40% equity position. Financial engines recommended a position of 65% G, 25% I, and 10% C using a conservative 0.70 risk factor. I don’t need my money in TSP until I am forced to start withdrawing at 71 years old.