Thread: Cully's Account Talk

On this day of volatility - Putting Volatility in Perspective from Crestmont Research:

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/doc...erspective.pdf

Short term momentum vs longterm momentum. Guppy Multiple Moving Averages.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0By...pHOEtCU2czX2Qw

Excellent article well worth your time to read. Links to several supporting papers. This is what the TSP is all about!

http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/is-outperforming-the-market-alpha-or-beta.mobile

FundXcellence

Originally Posted by cully

Excellent article well worth your time to read. Links to several supporting papers. This is what the TSP is all about!

http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/is-outperforming-the-market-alpha-or-beta.mobile

FundXcellence

Thanks for your info...hope to see you on the autotracker in 2016!

Thanks - still getting my act together. I will be there in 2016 though!

FundXcellence

Originally Posted by cully

Thanks - still getting my act together. I will be there in 2016 though!

FundXcellence

LOL...aren't we all!

Good paper on momentum investing, and easily used to maket TSP IFT decisions. Enjoy: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0By...0t0Nk1FQkpWajA

FundXcellence

I found this quote about "exits" by a private trader informative:

'As a closing thought, I believe it's important that we distinguish between at least six different typesof exit rules:

• Market timing: Switching to 100% cash on an indicator of the S&P 500 or other broad index.
• Risk reduction: Ignoring indexes but switching to cash based on your portfolio's rate of change.
• Stop-loss orders: Sell orders that convert into market orders when a price limit is pierced.
• Put options: Placing money on bets that pay off when prices decline a certain amount.
• Asset rotation: Investing only in assets with the strongest relative strength at any given time.
• Buy-and-hold and then liquidate near the bottom: What most investors do.

If your only investment is an index, market timing makes perfect sense. Jeremy Siegel showed this in his 2008 book Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Ed. In a backtest from 1972 through 2006, a 200-day moving average with a 1% trigger band improved the annualized return of the Nasdaq index to 14.5% rather than 10.9%, even after Siegel subtracted hefty transaction costs instead of today's low commissions. (You buy at the end of any day when the index closes more than 1% above its 200-day SMA. You switch to cash when the index closes more than 1% below. The trigger band kept transactions down to about 2.7 per year.)'

Happy Thanksgiving!

FundXcellence

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...p=docslist_api

Series 2 is "Full FundXcellence Momentum" , Series 3 is "Distributed FundXcellence Momentum" Series 4 is FundXcellence Momentum C Fund only" and Series 5 is "Buy and Hold". More explanation at FundXcellence this weekend.

"Fact Fiction and Momentum Investing" paper by AQR, which has a couple of momentum mutual funds.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0By...m5kNFVYb2tuTzg

FundXcellence

Originally Posted by cully

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That was a good read! Thank you!

Edit: meant to quote the private trader post, haha.