Thread: Cully's Account Talk

Great article on what we are up against - Robots. Makes one want to buy and hold or some very simple variation of that approach.

This Japanese Robot Calls the Market Better Than a Human - Bloomberg Business

FundXcellence

Quite a long read, but as always excellent work from "Jesse Livermore" over at Philosophical Economics. This latest work will definitely have an impact on how I analyze the market in terms of my trendfollowing/momemtum analysis.

In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator | PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS

FundXcellence

Good article on the benefits of using momentum in your selection of mutual funds from none other than Morningstar!

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0By...1V4SHIyRkFKa1E

FundXcellence

I know many of us wish the TSP had more investment choices, but that may actually not get us much in terms of performance. A simple portfolio of the C,S,I and F Funds, with a 60/40 allocation beat virtually all the Large College Endowments - even the IVY league schools - and they can invest in ANYTHING!. Read on:

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016...e-vs-golitath/

FundXcellence

Good article on the TSP and the FERS retirement system in general, viewed from a private sector perspective. I especially liked the analysis of the Met-Life annuity option that FERS offers - food for thought.

How Good is TSP--the Federal Employees Retirement Plan?

FundXcellence

6.5% interest rate for TSP annuities? If that was true a lot of people would jump on it. Here's the true rate:
https://www.tsp.gov/whatsnew/Content...RateIndex.html

Yes I'm confused - they call the 6.5% a "PAYOUT RATE". I'm not sure that is the same as the interest rate you link to - may be. Can't find anything on TSP sight on Payout Rate.

This is from the comment section of the article:

6.5% OF your balance... NOT a rate of return but a return of your own principal. Meaning, once you start your Met Life TSP Annuity it will take roughly 15 years before you actually receive a single penny of actual 'return' on that investment. In your own example - Compare the 4.5% return ON your investment as mentioned in the article and the TSP Annuity is one of the worst choices a person could possibly make... if it were only explained correctly here.

Like · Reply · Mark as spam · Mar 5, 2016 9:37am



Jim Russell Public Policy Professor at Portland State University
I have a more favorable attitude toward annuities. Their purpose is to provide secure income that you will not outlive. I don't see them as investments per se. The only problem with the TSP annuity payout is that it is not as high as it could be if it weren't handled by a private insurance company.

I tend to agree with the authors final conclusion:

TSP is pretty good as a supplementary retirement plan--but with room for significant improvement of its annuities; and not at all good as a standalone retirement program or even in combination with Social Security at its present level of benefits.

But I can't go along with the idea of increasing SS withholding:

The only logical solution to fill the retirement income vacuum created by private sector employers increasingly substituting since the 1980s 401(k)-type savings and investment plans for secure pensions is to increase Social Security contributions and benefits.

Ronald Reagan already tried that by having us baby boomers prepay our SS benefits and instead of investing it the government spent it. It won't work because if there is any big pot of money around our government will spend it and we're left with the origianal problem unfixed.

We are in a "Bunny Market". Happy Easter! https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byh...p=docslist_api

FundXcellence

Originally Posted by Cactus

if there is any big pot of money around our government will spend it and we're left with the origianal problem unfixed.

Bears repeating, repeating, repeating....