Thread: userque's Account talk

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.--George Soros

George Soros a great investor in corrupt politicians and social anarchy. Why isn't this in the political forum? It is not clever. It is BS!

Originally Posted by pmaloney

George Soros a great investor in corrupt politicians and social anarchy. Why isn't this in the political forum? It is not clever. It is BS!

Because it wasn't political?


#readingComprehension

DOES DOUBLING DOWN WORK?
Does Doubling Down Work? - Alpha ArchitectAlpha Architect

"I demonstrate that when investment fund managers “double down” on positions that have run against them, they outperform. ...

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THE SECRET TO MOMENTUM IS THE 52-WEEK HIGH???
The Secret to Momentum is the 52-Week High??? - Alpha ArchitectAlpha Architect

"When coupled with a stock’s current price, a readily available piece of information—the 52-week high price–explains a large portion of the profits from momentum investing. ...

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Usercuz, what happened to that AI trading system you were working on?

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Usercuz, what happened to that AI trading system you were working on?

I still have it. I've commercialized it, but don't advertise it here anymore...for now.

"Great traders are more impressed with what they don't know then what they do"


-Karen Kaplan CEO Hill Holliday

TIME TO TRADE IN YOUR DOCTOR FOR AN ALGO?

Artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of low-back pain and sciatica

Time to Trade in Your Doctor for an Algo? -Alpha Architect

"In a prospective trial of 200 patients with low-back pain or sciatica, the diagnostic performance of a computer was compared with that of a clinician in a variety of clinical settings. The results indicate that artificial Intelligence techniques can be used for the differential diagnosis of low-back disorders, can outperform clinicians, and can be used to develop better methods of human differential diagnosis.

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FORECASTING BIAS: FROM WEATHER TO WALL STREET
Forecasting Bias: From Weather to Wall Street -Alpha Architect

"(Last Updated On: January 18, 2017)

Providers of forecasts often want to be right, but they also don’t enjoy surprising people on the downside. People don’t like nasty surprises.


For instance, it is by now a well-known phenomenon that weather forecasters tend to predict rain more often than it tends to occur. In a famous study, it was shown that when the Weather Channel predicted a 20% chance of rain, it only ended up raining 5% of the time. This is known as “wet bias,” since the Weather Channel is systematically biased in favor of wet forecasts.

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THE REMARKABLE TRUTH ABOUT 52-WEEK HIGH STOCKS
The Remarkable Truth about 52-Week High Stocks -Alpha Architect

"A stock you own just hit a 52-week high…

Does it make you nervous?


On Wall Street, there are many highly publicized metrics that can trigger an emotional response in investors. The “52-week high” signal is a great example. It is a widely reported (e.g., Barron’s, WSJ, MarketWatch) and easily noticed statistic. Stocks at 52-week highs are at their peak versus historical values, and this is, presumably, valuable information. Also, peaks per se are salient, almost by definition, and so we tend to pay a lot of attention to them.
Psychological studies have shown that people exhibit an availability bias, placing undue emphasis on facts and examples that are salient, prominent or easily recalled. A recent earthquake, for example, will cause us to adjust our base rates, and temporarily overestimate the likelihood of earthquakes.


So how do people perceive stocks that are at a 52-week high, and might this metric cause us to do something inappropriate?

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