Thread: ATCJeff's Account Talk

Originally Posted by ATCJeff

Tomorrow I'm out. Going 100% G or F. My gut tells me that the correction everyone has been calling is upon us. The S fund took it on the chin today and the C & I will be tomorrow. Just wished I had pulled the plug today.

Jeff,

I don't mind selling low in order to get out of the way of a Mack truck, but after today's close, the Nasdaq is over-sold and should have a deaad cat bounce. I will probalby exit tomorrow and head to the G fund for the penny on Monday. I'm just hoping to break even tomorrow. Btw, I'm done with the F fund.

[ 5 years, 1 month, 17 days ]

One comment, 2 questions.
I too think we may be in for a drop here, not seeing the oversold.
Are you FERS or CSRS?
Is the size of your TSP balance and the proximity of your retirement date effecting your risk tolerance?

PS- I'm also ATC and with a 7 and 6 year old, I'm going to the bitter end. 56 in 8 years 6 mos and change. - cheers

Originally Posted by TRAFFIC_DOG

[ 5 years, 1 month, 17 days ]

One comment, 2 questions.
I too think we may be in for a drop here, not seeing the oversold.
Are you FERS or CSRS?
Is the size of your TSP balance and the proximity of your retirement date effecting your risk tolerance?

PS- I'm also ATC and with a 7 and 6 year old, I'm going to the bitter end. 56 in 8 years 6 mos and change. - cheers

FERS, I can retire at the age of 46.

I have always treated my TSP account as "play" money. So risk has not been an issue. One day that may change. I am young enough and with my college degree and my flying experience, I plan on having a "part-time" second career in the aviation field. Believe it or not, I am considering FAA jobs over at the FSDO. Pretty big pay-cut! Still trying to find a way to retire and be hired as a new employee.

However, I will say that my balance( i'm alot closer to seven figures, than five) is starting to enter into the picture. Do I call that risk? I'm not sure. My favorite fund is still the I fund.

I've been real lucky to have found this career. But as you know, things have changed and I can not wait to get away from this side of the FAA.

Who knows, maybe the Dems will change things. It's pretty tough when your retirement is shrinking because of inflation and there's no more raises to off-set inflation!

Interesting... thanks. My TSP will be 40% of total retirement package, I can't view it as fun money.
Sucks about the high 3 stuck in the mud for sure.
I do believe the risk of being out of the market (unrealized gains) is huge and I will participate in the market all the way through retirement. cheers-

Corrected my bad move from yesterday. I'm back in 25/75 S & I. Now I have to hope the USM do not have a big push after the cutoff. I don't want to see a +FV today. Dollar looks stable as of now. I'll cross my fingers. OSM should have a big night tonight!

Jeff

I like what Griffin is doing trying to catch the USM then the OSM. I pulled 50% out yesterday and I am going to put that back in today. Right now I'll leave the 25% in the I and put 75% in the S to follow Griffin.

The dollar has been moving sideways now for a few weeks. My best guess is the dollar will break out of this pattern moving down. I just don't know when. Wish I did......

See what happens when I go and fly all morning.. Where did everyone go? I'm left here in the S & I. Hmmmm

I'll be glad to lend you some C fund to balance you out.

Maybe that would do the trick. Right now I don't see the C keeping up with the S & I.

On a different note. Many people moved to the G/F funds today. Why? Yes I know people are looking for weakness as some will probably take some profits today and tomorrow. Yes I know bonds yields are moving down and giving the F fund good returns. But, we all know what happens when bond yields get to low. Stocks become more attractive.

Also, the dollar looks to have finally started a down trend. This should make the I fund move higher. Yes we will have down days. But can we/us really afford to miss days like yesterday or even weeks like this week? I say no.

Eventually the market will correct. When and how much? No ones knows. I guess it's a matter of risk. Right now I think being out of the market rather than in is riskier. Watching from the sidelines as the market moves higher is painful. I know. Just look at my account last year. I spent too much time on the sidelines after the summer downturn and lost some possible earnings. But each day we are making new highs across the board and that is why I'm still 100% long.

Just my 2 cents....

Jeff

Originally Posted by ATCJeff

Maybe that would do the trick. Right now I don't see the C keeping up with the S & I.

On a different note. Many people moved to the G/F funds today. Why? Yes I know people are looking for weakness as some will probably take some profits today and tomorrow. Yes I know bonds yields are moving down and giving the F fund good returns. But, we all know what happens when bond yields get to low. Stocks become more attractive.

Also, the dollar looks to have finally started a down trend. This should make the I fund move higher. Yes we will have down days. But can we/us really afford to miss days like yesterday or even weeks like this week? I say no.

Eventually the market will correct. When and how much? No ones knows. I guess it's a matter of risk. Right now I think being out of the market rather than in is riskier. Watching from the sidelines as the market moves higher is painful. I know. Just look at my account last year. I spent too much time on the sidelines after the summer downturn and lost some possible earnings. But each day we are making new highs across the board and that is why I'm still 100% long.

Just my 2 cents....

Jeff

Very well said Jeff. I'm starting to think that way too.

Originally Posted by ATCJeff

Right now I think being out of the market rather than in is riskier. Watching from the sidelines as the market moves higher is painful. I know. Just look at my account last year. I spent too much time on the sidelines after the summer downturn and lost some possible earnings. But each day we are making new highs across the board and that is why I'm still 100% long.

That was the point I was trying to make in the latest thread to question Tom sitting on the sidelines. Over the last several months it has cost more to sit on the sidelines than to be in the market.