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Thread: Whipsaw's Account Talk

  1. #2257

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Well....DOW futures down right now by 790 pts. My sticky pants are total crap now!!!!
    Earlier in evening it was green by 80 pts or so.
    No turn around Tuesday.

    So what are we missing? Economy good. People that afraid of inflation? Really? Heard some folks say valuations were more in line with normal now. But one guy on FBN mentioned loose monetary policy for so long was cause for many to invest in market including borrowing at ultra low rates and using margin in markets, so with the start of drop, it accelerated with quick automated trading/stop loses and then lots of folks hitting margin calls.

    Also heard Janet Yellin made some comment spooking market even further today. Or could it have started due to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin talking dollar down in Davos? I thought he was misunderstood and he clarified next day. The 1987 flash crash triggered by similar comment but they were in recession. We're not. Wow. This is a tough call cuz I know if I exit, market will go up. Looked at charts. Still not had 20 under 50 day EMA crossover. But I don't want to stick in that long... I think Charles Payne is still pretty optimistic.

    Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!!!!!!
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 02-06-2018 at 01:35 AM.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  3. #2258

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,148

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Well....DOW futures down right now by 790 pts. My sticky pants are total crap now!!!!
    Earlier in evening it was green by 80 pts or so.
    No turn around Tuesday.

    So what are we missing? Economy good. People that afraid of inflation? Really? Heard some folks say valuations were more in line with normal now. But one guy on FBN mentioned loose monetary policy for so long was cause for many to invest in market including borrowing at ultra low rates and using margin in markets, so with the start of drop, it accelerated with quick automated trading/stop loses and then lots of folks hitting margin calls.

    Also heard Janet Yellin made some comment spooking market even further today. Or could it have started due to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin talking dollar down in Davos? I thought he was misunderstood and he clarified next day. The 1987 flash crash triggered by similar comment but they were in recession. We're not. Wow. This is a tough call cuz I know if I exit, market will go up. Looked at charts. Still not had 20 under 50 day EMA crossover. But I don't want to stick in that long... I think Charles Payne is still pretty optimistic.

    Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!!!!!!
    Afraid to but almost have to ride this out. Flashback to 2015 when I finished the year at a -2.17%
    May the force be with us.

  4.  
  5. #2259

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
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    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Thanks DBA, link on Drudge alleges never-trumpers in the FED up to no good, if that's the case, heads should roll, jail, etc. That said, us little folk have to deal with it. I agree with you and NASA, underlying fundamentals haven't changed, economy improving, jobs, tax cuts, etc. I suspect (really hope for) a snap-back rally, trying to jump out and then back in could result in being whipsawed ( ). I still have 2 IFTs left, leaving the possibility of a partial exit on strength and a later buy. JTH got caught in a down-draft last year and held his position well up into the high end of the tracker.

    https://www.thestreet.com/story/1430...ve-system.html
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!


  6.  
  7. #2260

    Join Date
    Mar 2011
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    918

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Well....DOW futures down right now by 790 pts. My sticky pants are total crap now!!!!
    Earlier in evening it was green by 80 pts or so.
    No turn around Tuesday.

    So what are we missing? Economy good. People that afraid of inflation? Really? Heard some folks say valuations were more in line with normal now. But one guy on FBN mentioned loose monetary policy for so long was cause for many to invest in market including borrowing at ultra low rates and using margin in markets, so with the start of drop, it accelerated with quick automated trading/stop loses and then lots of folks hitting margin calls.

    Also heard Janet Yellin made some comment spooking market even further today. Or could it have started due to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin talking dollar down in Davos? I thought he was misunderstood and he clarified next day. The 1987 flash crash triggered by similar comment but they were in recession. We're not. Wow. This is a tough call cuz I know if I exit, market will go up. Looked at charts. Still not had 20 under 50 day EMA crossover. But I don't want to stick in that long... I think Charles Payne is still pretty optimistic.

    Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!!!!!!

    I almost never log in anymore, but I wanted to see what folks here were thinking.

    I think the concept of stop losses mentioned in this quote makes a lot of sense. Think about it. The recent run up was unprecedented...everyone knew it wouldn't last forever. So what does a big money trader do? Well, stay you gotta stay in. But to protect your assets you program in a really tight stop loss. Makes sense to me. But who knows. We're all just throwing darts.

    Good luck to all today!!
    2011: 12.73%; 2012: 16.44 %, 2013: 17.46%, 2014: 5.35 ; Past 12 months 6.81% as of 01/31/2015


  8.  
  9. #2261

    Join Date
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    3,729

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Thanks for stopping by Mapper! Its good to see more TSPers posting, I guess the volatility brings folks out.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

  10.  
  11. #2262

    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Location
    Bloomington, Indiana
    Posts
    322

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Mapper View Post
    I almost never log in anymore, but I wanted to see what folks here were thinking.

    I think the concept of stop losses mentioned in this quote makes a lot of sense. Think about it. The recent run up was unprecedented...everyone knew it wouldn't last forever. So what does a big money trader do? Well, stay you gotta stay in. But to protect your assets you program in a really tight stop loss. Makes sense to me. But who knows. We're all just throwing darts.

    Good luck to all today!!
    I bailed yesterday per my plan to not go less than what the g fund was giving me. I'm probably 1.5 k up from where I would have been if I had stayed in g over the holidays. In that I'm happy but sad that I almost had my new truck half paid for by Jan 28th. Now I have to battle with getting back in. Just have to come to terms with the fact that that money was never mine. Lol. Sad

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk
    100% G fund COB 12/22/2023 Was 80%G 20%C

  12.  
  13. #2263

    Join Date
    Feb 2013
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    Sometimes Maryland, Sometimes Texas
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    3,504

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    I agree with you W/S that trying to jump out and then back in again could get you whipsawed. Unfortunately we are on the wrong side of this trade at this point and jumping out could keep us on the wrong side. As hard as it is to watch, I think it is best to stay the course instead of locking in a huge loss. Volatility is through the roof today and what may look good at the deadline will probably be way different than the way things look when the markets close.

    Of course the talking heads on TV have no idea as half of them say another 1000 point loss on the DOW, while the other half says we will get a 1000 point rebound. I guess they do that so whichever way it goes they can say "We told you so".

    Just broke out a new box of sticky pants. This bull is not throwing me out just yet...
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

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  15. #2264

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    I'm sitting here perplexed - I just invested my 1st move for the month 50% into S yesterday and left the other 50% in G - now I'm second guessing and wondering if market is giving me a chance to retreat - but that would take my 2nd move and lock me in rest of Feb. Or I could just let it ride, and throw the other 50% if it keeps dropping the next couple of days. Decisions, Decisions

  16.  
  17. #2265

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
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    3,729

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Bama, I think you're in good shape, buying on sale so to speak. RF and I being already in, as RF said, we're on the wrong side and can only get out and likely miss a rebound. As you just got in after a sizable drop, and only 50%, odds are the market will be higher than this point going forward, and you still have some dry powder should it drop further. I think you're on target with the second option you presented.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

  18.  
  19. #2266

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    ... Already gone through a 3-pack. I guess I need to buy a new box! For now, still in this market.

    Ughhh... Started off this morning with more than -500 point drop , then within minutes was up positive +200 points and right now at -54...wait now at -124. Fox saying so far a 934 point swing. I am leaning toward staying in.....will see how this works out...uggghhhhh.

    But plenty of talking heads to support you either way on FBN. Okay...... Fundamentals good, likely over-reaction, ...oh.. Charles Payne just now on Varney saying lots of automated trading....he said for last week and a half, he sees what looks like "deliberate attempt" to shake investors out of market. Not sure why he made such strong comment and what he s basing this on.... something to think about.....I guess the automated trading.???????
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

  20.  
  21. #2267

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Harry Dent economist says market drops 40% in next few months. But indicating right now, there should be a retracement of about 50% of current loss, and that would be when you would sell.... another person saying market has over estimated amount of inflation coming...etc. Also, Charles Payne clarifying he is talking long term rise..... so tat says nothing about the current trend and about short term trading. Reconsidering exit maybe on retracement. Ughh
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  23. #2268

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    ... Already gone through a 3-pack. I guess I need to buy a new box! For now, still in this market.

    Ughhh... Started off this morning with more than -500 point drop , then within minutes was up positive +200 points and right now at -54...wait now at -124. Fox saying so far a 934 point swing. I am leaning toward staying in.....will see how this works out...uggghhhhh.

    But plenty of talking heads to support you either way on FBN. Okay...... Fundamentals good, likely over-reaction, ...oh.. Charles Payne just now on Varney saying lots of automated trading....he said for last week and a half, he sees what looks like "deliberate attempt" to shake investors out of market. Not sure why he made such strong comment and what he s basing this on.... something to think about.....I guess the automated trading.???????
    Hope your right about staying in. Feels oversold...here. Feels dangerous...makes me think my fear level now supports being in. You know...play the fear risk. I'm scared to be in...so must be getting close.


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