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Thread: Whipsaw's Account Talk

  1. #121

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Here is an interesting take on potential volatility, a Dow top in with downside to 14000, any thoughts on this?

    Market Report: Dow Industrials Top in Place? | Nouf | Safehaven.com
    This would be the equivalent of the S&P 500 pulling back to the late 2007 high of 1490. By then we would have been under the 200 SMA long enough for folks to have already declared a bear market. My own personal bear-market meter resides with the 500 SMA which currently sits at 1540.


    Attachment 27144
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  3. #122

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    This would be the equivalent of the S&P 500 pulling back to the late 2007 high of 1490. By then we would have been under the 200 SMA long enough for folks to have already declared a bear market. My own personal bear-market meter resides with the 500 SMA which currently sits at 1540.


    Attachment 27144
    Out of curiosity JTH, what do you mean when you say "bear market meter"? Are you saying when the 200 day SMA crosses below the 500 day or do you mean it as a potential price target?

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  5. #123

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Khotso View Post
    Out of curiosity JTH, what do you mean when you say "bear market meter"? Are you saying when the 200 day SMA crosses below the 500 day or do you mean it as a potential price target?
    A long long time ago in a galaxy far far away, through a mulititude of scans under various timeframes, I determined that the most profitable single moving average to buy and sell under was the 493rd SMA. I rounded it off to 500 which wasn't far behind on the list, and decided this was a good bear-market-meter for the long-term invester.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  7. #124

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    A long long time ago in a galaxy far far away, through a mulititude of scans under various timeframes, I determined that the most profitable single moving average to buy and sell under was the 493rd SMA. I rounded it off to 500 which wasn't far behind on the list, and decided this was a good bear-market-meter for the long-term invester.
    Haha. I like that ... 493rd SMA! Well, I'm no longer a long term investor, but I think I'll hold in S fund for another day at least. Thanks sir!

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  9. #125

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Thanks Guys! I'm going to sit tight for the next week or so, it looks like we're approaching the top of trading channel and there may be some post holiday reveral (thank JTH, Bquat), and the 1929 chart is still making the rounds (thanks Tsunami) Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

    I think jumping in here wouldn't be prudent, as I posted earlier I've stayed too long at the fair; will look for the next move down (next week?) and try to make a move in then. I've dropped ~ 50 spots on the tracker from a high of around 144. C'est la vie!
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  11. #126

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Bummed I missed this last run up. Looking for some downward movement for a new entry, saw some nonsense about Soros betting on a market downturn... There is this article on elliot wave analysis predicting some weakness ahead.

    AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Resistance Around 0.9080 - 0.9170 | Gregor Horvat | Safehaven.com

    Who's still spooked by the 1929 chart? O.o
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!


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  13. #127

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Bummed I missed this last run up. Looking for some downward movement for a new entry, saw some nonsense about Soros betting on a market downturn... There is this article on elliot wave analysis predicting some weakness ahead.

    AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Resistance Around 0.9080 - 0.9170 | Gregor Horvat | Safehaven.com

    Who's still spooked by the 1929 chart? O.o
    It wadn't too hard to miss that last runup, we had a lower low so folks weren't so inclined to take the risk to jump in. Better money missed than money lost.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  15. #128

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    It wadn't too hard to miss that last runup, we had a lower low so folks weren't so inclined to take the risk to jump in. Better money missed than money lost.
    ... Or as in my case both!
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  17. #129

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Folks are moving to the lillypad, I'm getting back into alignment...

    "Even if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there."
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  19. #130

    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    "Even if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there."
    I really like that. I'm going to have to remember that one. It'd make a good sig. line, don't you think?
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  21. #131

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Not much to post of late, been busy getting my Exploder fixed after a hit and run on Valentines day... that week my daughter moved back into the house after a broken engagement, just finished painting out her room Weather sent us home early from work Now that I'm on the right side of the trade again, will certainly be more decisive this time w/o all the distractions. Looking for a good entry point!
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  23. #132

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    Default Re: Whipsaw's Account Talk

    Yawn... -.- its official, there is uncertainty in the market: Stock Trading Alert: Short-Term Uncertainty As Indexes Fluctuate Near Record Highs | Paul Rejczak | Safehaven.com I want to hear that flushing sound again so I can get a good entry point...
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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