Thread: Aslan's Account Talk

Well, let's give this a try. 100% G (effective since close price 6/22/05)to start on this thread, looking for a signal to stay put or get back in.

By the way, I know Monday morning QB is a no, no. That's allof that you will see from me. You will also see me make moves and place trades after the market closes on a given day, after my numbers are run, not in the AM before the noon deadline, there is too much emotion involved in that, which I'm going to try and eliminate as much as possible (I'll try). We will see what happens. Thanks

Aslan

...as of the beginning of the thread on 6/24/05, I'm 100% G.

With an up price in the S fund, my model signals back to 100% S as of closing price 6/29/05. I will place a tight stop on this (2% stoploss).

I wish I could find a chart that shows volume trends and other indicators greater than 5 days for the Wilshire 4500? Anyone with some suggestions?

That end of day 6/29/05 price gets me in at 15.07 in the S Fund, 100%. My signal tells me to get in, but this seems risky as we approach the 52 week high, and it seems to keep failing there. Got to keep the emotions out of it, easy to say, right?

Aslan,

You may end up taking a few hits into next week, but suggest you try and absorb the body blows with the rest of us investing dare devils. If you are allocating into the S fund you will end up buying in at an even lower price on payday. If you are not in 100% S fund you can use other funds to dollar cost average on the down side, and when the turn comes you are that much further ahead. Good luck. I just realized you are 100% S fund. This will be a good test of your pain threshold, how much pain can you handle? For me when I'm accumulating the more pain the better.

I think this market has been responding to the possibility of import surcharges placed on the Chinese - rather than reacting negatively to the latest Fed policy. That particular legislation has been abandoned and the market will undoubtedly rebound into the summer months. Mr Snow is saying the Chinese will revalue their yaun in the next 2 months - perhaps gradually. I'd hold my positions and add to them.

Birtch-

Thanks for the comments. What I'm trying to figure out is where all the sellers are? The level of the S Fund is at a resistant point right now (52 week high), and that is why I contemplated getting out, for the short term. I'm still learning about this volume/buyers/sellars stuff, but it seems like it may correct here (consolidate) or break through to new highs. My signal says stay in, so I'm in. I typically don't look at all that other stuff (China, oil, etc) It is too complicated for me. I basically need to know the volume and the resistant points. Thanks.

Aslan

You said:

"I wish I could find a chart that shows volume trends and other indicators greater than 5 days for the Wilshire 4500? Anyone with some suggestions?"


Try Stockcharts.com using symbol $emw for long term signals on the Wilshire 4500. Or go to Stockcharts.com then click on Public Charts then look for my free page called: TSP INVESTING & TREND LINE BREAKS , then click on it. :^

Good luck

Roman

Rome-

Thanks!! I already checked it out and it looks like it will be very helpful. I've started to really look at the charts and get educated about them, you know, double tops, V's, inverted V's, head and shoulders, resistance, support, that kind of stuff. It is very fascinating.

On the realted note, if the S fund can hold above 512, it would of appeared to break through the resistance of the previous 52 week high. This would then become support, right? I know the volume is important as well and I'll look at it later at the close. This could really start the S fund on a little run. The volume and keepingabove the current resistance today appears to be key. Thanks :^

This chart is interesting. It actually shows volume for the S fund. It seems that we have penetrated a resistance zone in the S fund at 511, only to see the volume below average on the upswing, hum? Is this a valid breakout? I'm still learning this charting stuff, but I know that I would of liked to have seen tremendously high volume today. My signal says stay in, so I'm staying, the support should now be where the resistance was at around 511. Let's see if it holds. Still learning. Hopefully the volume tomorrow will be way up as the "dumb money" comes in (no offense to anyone by the way) and pushes the demand greater than the supply.

Volume is still below average in the S fund, but a nice reversal today. It's baffling how we broke through the 52 week high this , on lower than averagevolume, and then had a reversal today on even lower volume, mind boggling!

If S fund price is lateral or down by the end of tomorrow, that signals me outinto G, with hopefully a little gain (short term). This decision will be made at the end of the day tomorrow, not before.

Volume sets a three month high today of over 1.6 billion shares traded, and they appeared to be a HUGE amount of buyers, as the S fund price opens way above the close yesterday and never looks back, gaining 1.33% to set an all time high. This up price keeps me in for now. See technical analysis thread for more info and to see a chart. Let's see what happens Monday.

Still 100% S for now.