Thread: DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Per Newsfeed article..economic data for this week:


"Tuesday sees the publishing of the U.S. consumer-price index for November, the release of a quarterly bulletin by the Bank of England (the UK’s central bank), a US Justice Department deadline to decide on Halliburton’s takeover of oil services rival Baker Hughes, and earnings from Jefferies Group and Prada.

Wednesday brings news on US housing starts for November, 2016 earnings guidance from conglomerate Honeywell International, an investor outlook meeting by General Electric chief executive Jeffrey Immelt, and earnings from FedEx Corp.

Thursday sees a summit of European Union leaders in Brussels to discuss the demands of the UK as it seeks to renegotiate the terms of its membership, an update on the US current account balance, and earnings from Red Hat, Accenture and General Mills.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president Jeffrey Lacker will present his economic forecast for the US economy in 2016 at a conference in North Carolina, Baker Hughes will publish its closely-watched count of oil and gas rigs in the US, and earnings are expected from Darden Restaurants and Lennar."

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

It's gonna be big! Finally found an article discussing stock option expiry this Friday---"Quadruple-witching". It could be a huge week.....but which way??

Volatility the surest bet in stocks after Fed meets | Reuters

Article says "A slew of economic data due to be released before the Fed meeting, including readings on growth in manufacturing, industrial production and consumer prices...". question is when does that come out?

Article also says, "...could cause some choppiness if traders take any robust data as a sign that the Fed may be more aggressive with future rate increases.". So good news would be bad again..the Catch 22 with Fed continues..

Primary points in article:

"We are seeing a lot of heavy positioning" in front of the Fed, said Steven Sosnick, equity risk manager for Timber Hill, the market-making division of Interactive Brokers.

That positioning is leaning more heavily toward seeking protection against a broad stock market move lower, said traders who expect volatility to spike after the Fed meeting.

S&P 500 .SPX options expiring next Friday imply a 2.9 percent move in the index by the end of the week."



"But a sharp move to the downside could be amplified since the Fed decision comes just two days ahead of "quadruple-witching," when options on stocks and indexes and futures on indexes and single-stocks all expire, making the index particularly prone to a jump in volatility.

JPMorgan derivatives analysts estimate that nearly $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options are set to expire on Friday morning, about 60 percent in put options, typically used as portfolio hedges.

In case of an adverse reaction in stocks, the accumulation of large blocks of open SPX put contracts at the 2,000, 1,950, and 1,900 levels, could force more selling. Market makers who have sold those contracts would be forced to sell equities to reduce their risk.

This kind of activity was one of the key reasons for the market selloff in late August, when the S&P entered its first correction in more than four years." [Emphasis added]

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Primary points in article:

"We are seeing a lot of heavy positioning" in front of the Fed, said Steven Sosnick, equity risk manager for Timber Hill, the market-making division of Interactive Brokers.

That positioning is leaning more heavily toward seeking protection against a broad stock market move lower, said traders who expect volatility to spike after the Fed meeting.

S&P 500 .SPX options expiring next Friday imply a 2.9 percent move in the index by the end of the week."



"But a sharp move to the downside could be amplified since the Fed decision comes just two days ahead of "quadruple-witching," when options on stocks and indexes and futures on indexes and single-stocks all expire, making the index particularly prone to a jump in volatility.

JPMorgan derivatives analysts estimate that nearly $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options are set to expire on Friday morning, about 60 percent in put options, typically used as portfolio hedges.

In case of an adverse reaction in stocks, the accumulation of large blocks of open SPX put contracts at the 2,000, 1,950, and 1,900 levels, could force more selling. Market makers who have sold those contracts would be forced to sell equities to reduce their risk.

This kind of activity was one of the key reasons for the market selloff in late August, when the S&P entered its first correction in more than four years." [Emphasis added]

Could be a 'perfect storm'... and if the Fed doesn't rates?

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

Could be a 'perfect storm'... and if the Fed doesn't [increas] rates?

It would show lack of confidence and market drop. Not sure which would be worse. I still think Santa will come... Part of me wants to jump in now, but part wants to wait until after Fed talks. May mean I miss bottom. But at this point not wiling to take risk. Maybe mistake.

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

It would show lack of confidence and market drop. Not sure which would be worse.

I agree, my worry is I exit to safety and market goes 3/4% up and I miss that rally

Fed will move to raise rates. No doubt. The market will rally no doubt after skipping a beat of course for mellow drama. Oil will spike. Only real question...will market rally one day...then end the year on a sour note. Does somebody have a gauge on the smart money for confirmation? Volatility would certainly rule the rest of the year if we don't get a convincing bump up this week. I sense a stampede of hoofs behind me...possibly scarring away the Bulls currently roiling over me right now?

Still thinking about partial entry today...was going in a day early because of great return yesterday and this mornings lift, but once additional inventories of oil reported, oil prices started dropping and with it the market. Geezzz... Gotta decide soon.

Best wishes to you all!!!!!!!

Decided...in 25S/25C..uggh. I dislike this market! Will see...
Come o Santa...drop us some cookies!

DBA: I just hope Santa didn't go rogue and ate all his cookies early this year..

FS

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Still thinking about partial entry today...was going in a day early because of great return yesterday and this mornings lift, but once additional inventories of oil reported, oil prices started dropping and with it the market. Geezzz... Gotta decide soon.

Best wishes to you all!!!!!!!

Decided...in 25S/25C..uggh. I dislike this market! Will see...
Come o Santa...drop us some cookies!

Market hasn't treated me very well this year. Some of that my fault. Just hoping to not have a negative year. Right now I'll be happy with a zero at the end of the year.

Originally Posted by FogSailing

DBA: I just hope Santa didn't go rogue and ate all his cookies early this year..

FS

Originally Posted by nasa1974

Market hasn't treated me very well this year either. Some of that my fault. Just hoping to not have a negative year. Right now I'll be happy with a zero at the end of the year.

Hi Nasa, I feel you! I am probably around 2.8% as of COB yesterday....Timing definitely off this year but this market has been brutal and extremely volatile. I looked back at prior years and I am surprised.

But for now I am sticking in at 50%. I should have entered today as originally planned. I really veered off course quite a bit this year. I will shake it off, not look back too much, and will work on this coming year. I'll fix what I need to, or at least try, and cut myself a break. You Are What You Think---(a very good book by David Stoop)!!

I have never experienced a downtrend in managing my monies the past two and a half years. Just learned about options expiring on the 3rd Friday of some months and how they can affect the market. Apparently that is what caused drop in late August (per articles I have read). Wish I had known about that. So getting a little wiser... or at least I hope so. I jumped in a little too early on that one.. while half way down. Then this time...too late.. probably half way up.

But I am staying positive!!!! I will take this all as necessary learning and work to improve and subscribe to some services to learn more (I am thinking about Ira Epstein and of course TSP Talk Plus). That is what I want to focus on...plus staying the course and following my own heart and opinion. Yes.. take in news but not let it rule.

Fibonacci retracement is something I have been interested in for some time now but just have not studied it. So I am coming up with a list for next year. Will tweak strategy a bit, but work much harder at sticking to it. That is the tough part for me!!!

Best wishes to you and to everyone in your investments!!!!!!!!

Oh... and FS, I think Santa will be generous..... pleezzzz Santa... no crumbs... give us some really BIG cookies... the size of TEXAS!!! ...already thinking about the exit... just my thought but thinking earlier is better... like not waiting until 12-31????? don't know...see how the charts shape up.

Shake it like a polaroid pictcha!