Thread: Ebb's Account Talk

Today is as good a day as any to dispel the notion that you need to be a rocket scientist to understand the ebbcharts. One need only compare yesterday's charts from today to discover that I'm merely tallying results for the patterns in the C, S, and I-fund. Note: Only one pattern gets updated each day.

Thursday/Mar. 27, 2014 ebbtally chart:


Friday/Mar. 28, 2014 ebbtally chart:


Last Friday we had a pattern 6/red-red-grn, and here is the result for the funds: C +0.47%; S +0.33%; I +0.59%.

If we compare the two charts under pattern 6/red-red-grn, the tally in the C-fund went from 6/9 (+1.71%) on Thursday to 7/10 (+2.18%) on Friday. Why? It's because on Friday, the C-fund was up and gained +0.47%. The same tallying was done for the S and I-fund. No changes were made to the other patterns. It's that simple.

Same topic as the post above, but this time we'll see what happens to the 7-yr. ebbtally chart when it gets updated. Friday, we had a pattern 7/red-grn-grn, so its C, S, and I-fund tally gets updated with the losses. The loss column went from C 94, S 96, I 105 on Thursday to C 95, S 97, I 106 on Friday (simple math). No changes were made to the other patterns. Don't mind the white bottom-half of the charts. I just use it to see how many losses or wins there are before a percentage is reached.

Thursday's 7-yr. ebbtally chart:


Friday's 7-yr. ebbtally chart:

Daily ebbchart:


There's a double pattern on the ebbcharts for next week (Apr. 08/Tuesday and Apr. 09/Wednesday). Usually, I use only the bullish red double patterns to enter the market for a day or two, but I'll make an exception for pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Its normal 7-yr. winning percentage in the S-fund is good at 55%. But as a double pattern, its 1st day jumps to a great win percentage of 68%, and its 2nd day is not that bad either at 62%. That being said, I will make an IFT before noon next Monday, so I can be in the S-fund for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Double-patterns chart:

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

Daily ebbchart:


There's a double pattern on the ebbcharts for next week (Apr. 08/Tuesday and Apr. 09/Wednesday). Usually, I use only the bullish red double patterns to enter the market for a day or two, but I'll make an exception for pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Its normal 7-yr. winning percentage in the S-fund is good at 55%. But as a double pattern, its 1st day jumps to a great win percentage of 68%, and its 2nd day is not that bad either at 62%. That being said, I will make an IFT before noon next Monday, so I can be in the S-fund for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Double-patterns chart:

Unofficial: C +0.38%; S +0.76%; I +0.00%.

The 1st day of double pattern 1-1 was a success (gain +0.76%). With a win percentage of 68% in the S-fund, the failure rate was a scant 32% (no-brainer move). Tomorrow, the 2nd day shows a favorable win percentage of 62%, so I'm still in. But I will be making another IFT before noon Wednesday, so I can be back in the F-fund by Thursday. I'll upload the updated chart below later.

Okay, the double-patterns chart has been updated for 04/08/14. Chart by chart, I've been trying to show folks that the ebbcharts are simple to understand. This chart is like the other charts...more tallying. The 1st day of double pattern 1-1 went from 23/34 68% on Monday to 24/35 69% on Tuesday. Why? Because today the S-fund was up. Tomorrow, its 2nd day will be updated.

The double-patterns chart allows the system to go into equities for a day or two even if the triple pattern is bearish. By the way, our last five entries into equities using double patterns have all been successful. Let's see what patterns can be used for entry:

Red double patterns:
3-3: 2nd day has a great win percentage of 68%.
5-5: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 57% and 66%.
6-6: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 61% and 57%.
8-8: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 56% and 71%.

Green double patterns:
1-1: 1st and 2nd day averages are awesome at 69% and 62%. It's the only green double pattern I'd consider using.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

Okay, the double-patterns chart has been updated for 04/08/14. Chart by chart, I've been trying to show folks that the ebbcharts are simple to understand. This chart is like the other charts...more tallying. The 1st day of double pattern 1-1 went from 23/34 68% on Monday to 24/35 69% on Tuesday. Why? Because today the S-fund was up. Tomorrow, its 2nd day will be updated.

The double-patterns chart allows the system to go into equities for a day or two even if the triple pattern is bearish. By the way, our last five entries into equities using double patterns have all been successful. Let's see what patterns can be used for entry:

Red double patterns:
3-3: 2nd day has a great win percentage of 68%.
5-5: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 57% and 66%.
6-6: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 61% and 57%.
8-8: 1st and 2nd day averages are good at 56% and 71%.

Green double patterns:
1-1: 1st and 2nd day averages are awesome at 69% and 62%. It's the only green double pattern I'd consider using.

The 2nd day of pattern 1-1 has been updated. The quick scalp in the S-fund (Tuesday and Wednesday) netted the system a gain of 2.12% (year-to-date: +5.16%). It also marks our sixth consecutive successful entry into equities using the double patterns. Making progress steadily...exit stage lefT.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

The 2nd day of pattern 1-1 has been updated. The quick scalp in the S-fund (Tuesday and Wednesday) netted the system a gain of 2.12% (year-to-date: +5.16%). It also marks our sixth consecutive successful entry into equities using the double patterns. Making progress steadily...exit stage left.

Dodged a 4% loss (Thursday and Friday) in the S-fund with the timely IFT move back to the F-fund. The system is now up +5.55% For the year.

What's great about the ebbchart patterns? Each pattern has taken well over 200 "snapshots" of the market. Compare that with the seasonality chart which tells you the forecast based on a given *date. That means a "snapshot" comes around only once a year for a grand total of some 60 years. You'd have to wait another 140 years to equal the data gathered by the ebbchart patterns. It's also the reason why the pattern's range of winning percentages are so much tighter (49% to 61%) and sexy.

*The ebbcharts' daily forecast does not depend on the date, but on the pattern generated for that day.

One more thing, the ebbchart patterns are dynamic. It continuously changes and adapts to the market. Think about it, if you're following the seasonality charts during a bear market, you'd be sunk. Same goes with averaging days and whatnot, it can't move and adapt fast enough to changing environments. Don't get me wrong now, I love the seasonality charts as much as the next guy/gal.

I know lots of folks hate on the ebbchart patterns because they can't find it anywhere else. I "write" the patterns and it originates from me, so I'm not just reading tea leaves like everyone does. But you know what, there's really a big advantage in seeing what others don't.

I'm done with folks comparing what my old system did before 2012 (discovery of triple pattern timeline). I consider myself lucky to escape with a -17% loss in 2008, when the market was down -50%. I am also glad that my system continues to evolve (double patterns). The double/triple/quadruple pattern entries in this chart are live only from 2012 and up, but it still doesn't change the fact that these patterns existed before 2012 (all documented). Unlike backtesting where you have different parameters to adjust in order to validate your own conclusion and system (self-fulfilling prophecy), the ebbchart patterns can't be adjusted. It's just either there, or not.

I don't know if the system using the S-fund (started live in April 2013) can continue its steady gains in the future, but we shall see.

I dont like your system because its confusing to read. Makes no sense to me, and I was one of your premium subscriber.

Originally Posted by law87

I dont like your system because its confusing to read. Makes no sense to me, and I was one of your premium subscriber.

You never told me what you're confused about, so what can I say? Maybe read some of the previous posts above. It explains how I use simple addition (no multiplication) to tally the ebbcharts. :toung:

Start with this link: Ebb's Account Talk