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Thread: MrBowl's Account Talk

  1. #1

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    Default MrBowl's Account Talk

    These are very interesting times, and I thought I would capture and preserve my ideas on the current market conditions. This is a great way to see how wrong I can be and keep myself humble. It also provides a good reference point to watch changing conditions and outlooks.

    What better time to keep track of "what was I thinking when...?" than starting my own account talk when:

    • The S&P 500 just closed within 3 points of its all-time S&P high close
    • The DJIA just completed 10 straight up days in a row (all of March so far)
    • The DJIA avg has been setting new all-time highs daily


    I might have just jinxed the above events!

    This could be a major turning point, or it could be that we're just crossing another milestone on our way to uncharted territory. Even Jim Cramer is having his 8th anniversary episode of Mad Money today. I've learned a lot here over the past 3+ years since FireWeatherMet introduced me to this site. My goal is to continue to learn, stay humble, be open to new ideas and possibilities, and adjust when new information dictates a change in strategy is due.

    Near-term: I think we see new record closes in the S&P 500 in the next 1-2 weeks as we zigzag around the 1555-1570 range and we eventually break out to 1-2% above the current record, breaking the all-time record intra-day high of 1576 as well.

    Mid-term: This is most interesting to me. Many experts I read are calling for a correction, and some are warning of a crash, that I have to consider the "law of maximum frustration" that says that the market seeks to inflict the most pain. The possibility that the market heads well above current levels in the next 2-7 months has to be considered. The May-June stretch always wrecks me so I may just put my TSP money on vacation every year then as default.

    Long-term: I believe we are still in the Secular Bear market that began in March 2000. We'll only know in hindsight if we've left the highs from March 2000 and Oct 2007 (1550-1565) behind for good. I think that the global economic situation (massive unmanagable debt, currency wars, fake Chinese economy, etc) will have a big impact again and give us one more leg down. If that occurs then the time to buy and hold (and DCA) will have arrived and could last 1-2 decades. I also believe that U.S. recessions come every 8-10 years and another is due sometime around 2015-2016 so that will have an impact.

    Strategy: I want to be in the market making money as much as possible. When we are in a QE phase, as we are now, I believe corrections are held to 3-5%. Since the low in March 2009 the great majority of the gains have come during QE phases, while the stretches between QEs were quite choppy and the market mostly moved sideways. Some day the Fed may lose its influence over the markets so I will treat topping signs seriously and may move to the sidelines briefly. So far this year these actions have caused the gap between the S fund and my Tracker rank to widen. I think that one day soon just rumors of Bernanke's retirement will cause the markets to get skittish and his eventual retirement could have a big impact on the markets. I expect Obama to twist his arm to re-sign, maybe even before this becomes an issue.

    I'm currently 100% S Fund with no IFTs left in March.


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  3. #2

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    That's the only time I'll write way too much. I promise

    That first post is to serve as a reference point for me (as in "look how much things have changed") as much as anything else.

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  5. #3

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    I like it, you should do that more often.
    Links Crude Settle $42.53 06-21-2017
    -$.98 Loss




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  7. #4

    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    I think your first post is clearly written and shows a lot of analysis and thought. I would encourage you to keep it up. You can post your thoughts periodically or when ever they change. You'd want to post at least once a year, whether things change or not, so you have something to compare against.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 21 : 100% S. | Retirement Date: Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%, 2013 17.29%, 2012 2.75%,5Yr Avg 3.57%

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  9. #5

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Interesting article. There's a lot more I need to learn about the fixed income market. I intend on making as much money as I can and hopefully I learn how to spot the signs as the music begins to stop.

    The Smartest Man In Global Capital Markets On When The Music Will Stop | Markets | Minyanville's Wall Street

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  11. #6

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBowl View Post
    Interesting article. There's a lot more I need to learn about the fixed income market. I intend on making as much money as I can and hopefully I learn how to spot the signs as the music begins to stop.

    The Smartest Man In Global Capital Markets On When The Music Will Stop | Markets | Minyanville's Wall Street
    I know it's unfair but when I See post from the smartest man of anything I refuse to read it because it is usually BS!
    Links Crude Settle $42.53 06-21-2017
    -$.98 Loss




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  13. #7

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    I know it's unfair but when I See post from the smartest man of anything I refuse to read it because it is usually BS!
    I agree that it sounds over-hyped and the title does as much to drive folks away as attract them. I found the article interesting, tho, for several reasons. The main reason is that this is a so-called expert that is not bearish in the near-term. At this point that takes more guts and is refreshing. I also partially agree with him longer-term

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  15. #8

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBowl View Post
    I agree that it sounds over-hyped and the title does as much to drive folks away as attract them. I found the article interesting, tho, for several reasons. The main reason is that this is a so-called expert that is not bearish in the near-term. At this point that takes more guts and is refreshing. I also partially agree with him longer-term
    Yes, he did make some interesting points.
    Links Crude Settle $42.53 06-21-2017
    -$.98 Loss




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  17. #9

    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    Yes, he did make some interesting points.
    i think we will rally into July and then the markets will react to his points ,have a correction, and we will be choppy thru 2014 like he says. That would really frustrate most investors. They will continue to fight the wall of worry and when they finally give in..it will be over and down we will go. That's what the big money wants us to do. They want your money.
    100 C fund
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average


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  19. #10

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Impressive that the S&P is only down ~4 pts considering all that went on this weekend. I saw the futures down to 1530 at one point last night!

    I think most folks realize that Cyprus is small and there are a lot of dominoes between them and the U.S. - reminds me of the small brief impact of the Egyptian riots 26 months ago

    At this point Cyprus hasn't even made the decision whether to confiscate bank acct money of private people or to default. I kinda think they will vote it down and a new idea will be proposed because nobody wants the default.

    I think the fear is that this is an idea that is now out of the bag and if it's used there it could easily be used in a different place. If so, a good solution would be to park your savings in U.S. equities ;-)

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  21. #11

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Agree that probably the rest of the world will look at this as another reason to park their cash in US banks, which will help US bank stocks and likely the overall US market.

    One thing to keep in mind...that not always, but often...the brief futures "flash crash" is where the market ends up eventually in the next pulback. Depending on what happens or doesn't in Europe the next few days...maybe 1530 is a possible short term target/resistance, before a move to higher highs....although you wouldn't know it by todays rebound.

    Day to watch is when they finally open the Cypress banks...to see what kind of runs on the banks occur, and how that day affects the rest of the banks and world markets. Also Fed meeting this week...need to watch any "sell the news" events.

    By "equities" I mean U.S. stocks - still one of the safest places to put money and get some return.

    If anything comes out of this over the next few days I think it will be minor for U.S. stocks, so I would expect 1530 to hold. At this point, even with a Cyprus bank run, I will remain in the S Fund.

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Helicopter Ben is expected to do a fly-by in 2 hours. I suspect that the Fed is encouraged by recent economic improvements in the U.S., but there is a long way to go and the recent market skittishness means the Fed will continue their operations at full speed to keep the support and confidence in the markets high.

    Record close in the S&P tomorrow, if not today.

    If I could draw I would sketch Ben as a superhero with a Dollar-sign mask and a big green cape with a bull on it.

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