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Thread: MrBowl's Account Talk

  1. #97

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    Default Re: Tapering?

    Not much mention of this, but today is the 5-year anniversary of the market bottom. If only I had been more confident in that back then. For another 2 years or so I was so sure we were just about to crash again that I denied myself great gains. I hope I see things a little better and have a little more knowledge on the big picture now. Only time will tell.

    March is a very interesting month. The big downturn of 2000-2003 also hit its final bottom right around this time in 2003, after reaching its top in March of 2000. It doesn't really mean anything, except that its always wise to be vigilant and ready to change your strategy and approach on short notice if the data changes.

    I should also add that it was about 51 weeks ago, also in March, that we crossed above the previous all time S&P high of 1576. Its been a good 12 months!

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  3. #98

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    Default Re: Tapering?

    For the first time in almost 6 years the Fed talked about a Fed Funds rate INCREASE. And, this will take place beginning after QE tapering is finished, perhaps in 6 months.

    Anyone that was paying close attention between 5 and 15 years ago remembers how much a rate change affected the market. In most cases the market resumed its previous trend within a few days. This will change the way the market behaves and maybe the old rules of market timing and technical analysis will work again.

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  5. #99

    Default Re: Tapering?

    Six months isn't enough for me. I don't want to be buying my first house when rates are on the move up. I feel like I keep getting screwed in timing.


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  7. #100

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    Default Re: Tapering?

    Quote Originally Posted by BichonFreeze View Post
    Six months isn't enough for me. I don't want to be buying my first house when rates are on the move up. I feel like I keep getting screwed in timing.
    Buy soon, rates will only go higher from here...
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  9. #101

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    Default Re: Tapering?

    The volatility sucks, but its best to stay the course. The US is not going into a recession in the near term.

    Josh Brown is very wise and often pretty funny. I recommend reading all of his columns, especially the latest...

    The Reformed Broker

    Also, his opinion on what kind of year we are in for seems spot on to me. I won't be a "buy and hold" S fund sitter all year. I will try and sell tops and buy dips if I can spot them.

    So Far, So Meh | The Reformed Broker

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  11. #102

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    The market fell last week on relatively high volume, but today when the selling took place the volume was light. Then came the reverse and a strong move up during the last half hour or so. Could it be that we finally exhausted the weak hands and bargain hunters rushed in at the end? It seems like that to me. Time will tell, but I think the market behavior told a positive story today.

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  13. #103

    Default Re: Tapering?

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBowl View Post
    I won't be a "buy and hold" S fund sitter all year. I will try and sell tops and buy dips if I can spot them.
    Good luck with that. The rally at the end of March lasted only a couple of days and then sank even lower. Some folks like Jason & Whipsaw managed a successful hit-N-run entry/exit, but a lot of folks like me rode it down even lower. Be careful out there.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
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  15. #104

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    Default Re: Tapering?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Good luck with that. The rally at the end of March lasted only a couple of days and then sank even lower. Some folks like Jason & Whipsaw managed a successful hit-N-run entry/exit, but a lot of folks like me rode it down even lower. Be careful out there.
    Yeppers, if you asked the average Hedge Fund Manager to play by our rules, they'd laugh and say it was "impossible." Then I'd say "You're right, it is"
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  17. #105

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    It's been talked about for awhile that the S Fund behaves more like the Nasdaq than the other TSP Funds. And, of course, the Nasdaq has really stunk lately. In the most recent dip the S Fund fell almost 7% while the C Fund fell just over 4%. My gut tells me that the S&P is headed back up to somewhere in the 1890-1910 range. But, how will the S Fund perform in the near future?

    I still have my IFTs left. If the S Fund plays catch up then it has more upside potential than the C Fund, provided that my gut feeling is correct. In that case I should ride with the S Fund awhile longer. I also think that the overall market may see another dip in a month or so. Since Dec we've been in a trading trend of higher highs and lower lows. This trend can't continue, but perhaps I will attempt to play it until it doesn't so maybe I will make my first exit of the year at or above the recent peak (if we return there).

    Longer term, though, such as 2-6 months, will the Nasdaq continue to stink up the place? That would mean avoiding the S Fund would be the proper strategy.

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  19. #106

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    I'm in the S Fund, but I will be watching the S&P 500 to decide when to bail to the G Fund, and it will be soon. My target is any close at or above 1890, then I plan to use my first IFT of the year the next day. I think the trend of slightly higher highs followed by a dip will hold, plus I never do well in May through mid June.

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  21. #107

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBowl View Post
    I'm in the S Fund, but I will be watching the S&P 500 to decide when to bail to the G Fund, and it will be soon. My target is any close at or above 1890, then I plan to use my first IFT of the year the next day. I think the trend of slightly higher highs followed by a dip will hold, plus I never do well in May through mid June.
    Very disciplined of you, "Sell in May" is just around the corner but the 1st 2 days are historically strong, you may want to hold our until then.
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  23. #108

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Very disciplined of you, "Sell in May" is just around the corner but the 1st 2 days are historically strong, you may want to hold our until then.
    JTH, that's good to know. I hadn't looked at seasonality per day.

    I did do a little study on the past 10-15 years and in most years there is a 4-6 week downturn, and in some years those have unfortunately defined my year. What was interesting was that the actual best day to "Sell in May" varied from late March to around the first 10 days of May. So, we can count on some unpredictability with the start date of a spring downturn, and they don't automatically happen every year.

    One thing I wonder about, did the recent dip release a pressure valve? Seems like we've had dips every 7-10 weeks and if that trend holds then we may be well into May before another dip is due. More questions than answers, of course!

    I must give some credit to Jim Cramer. Last Wednesday on Mad Money he did an analysis of HFT trading, bonds, and a few tweets that he saw all occur about the same time on Tuesday, right as the final low point in the market came and the final reversal happened. On that Wednesday show, with investors bloody and bruised from the recent sharp dip Cramer said "The Selling is Finally Over". I thought that was pretty bold to say so soon since we've seen some recent reversals fail.


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