Thread: MrBowl's Account Talk

Originally Posted by MrBowl

I'm moving 100% to the G Fund COB today. A few reasons why:

1) economic news continues to be poor and this seems to sap all upward momentum at this level

2) Tweet crash yesterday - a personal rule of thumb says such a crash foreshadows upcoming market move, with market ending up below flash crash low before too long

3) Having IFTs left gives me flexibility - I can get back in as early as tomorrow if I'm wrong or if the market falls enough

4) I'm still a bit negative for the month (like all in the S Fund) and I think it might be easier to grab the next 1-2% by buying lower soon rather than a staying for a 1-2% upward move from here

5) That May issue haunts me. I racked up big negative numbers on all of the previous 3 Mays. If I end up out of the market longer I will buy on a dip in May and hopefully break my May losing streak

I still feel all dips will be 5% or less during QE, and longer-term I am bullish and want to spend more time in stocks than out.

OK, turned out that was not the winning move. It wasn't too long before I was looking for a dip to return. That really juicy dip was Wednesday, and I didn't jump in. In all fairness to myself, the market wasn't down so much at our ridiculous early deadline.

Right now I'm having my best May ever...+0.016%. I'm not sure if I want to risk these gains by jumping into stocks . When I do, maybe next week I may go part way into the I fund since it's been a winner lately and the S fund which probably has some catching up still to do from the poor April.

Originally Posted by MrBowl

maybe next week I may go part way into the I fund since it's been a winner lately and the S fund which probably has some catching up still to do from the poor April.

I'm not sure that is a winning move either. Why, there's a new moon on May 9th and the earth will be at a distance extreme from Mercury. You'll be going in when the lunatics are getting out.

Originally Posted by jpcavin

I'm not sure that is a winning move either. Why, there's a new moon on May 9th and the earth will be at a distance extreme from Mercury. You'll be going in when the lunatics are getting out.

Hey, you're talking to a lunatic!

I jumped in today. A slightly up day can sometimes be the equivalent to a dip when the bull market is running at full speed. Basically, I didn't have a good reason to remain out and I want to run with the leaders, or at least not lose ground anymore.

As I said in the other forum I'm still in - 60% S and 405 I. A rising dollar has the potential to really affect the performance of the TSP funds, esp the I and F funds.

Are we seeing the first signs of the Fed easing on their policies? Things are changing. The global currency war is spreading. The dollar made a huge jump yesterday and the F fund got hammered. Bernanke's statements indicate that he's worried about an equities bubble now. Another debt ceiling deadline comes in a week. All of these things have the potential to shake up the markets. Take a look at these

Bernanke Takes a "Leak" | Zero Hedge

The Hilsenrath "Tapering" Article Is Out | Zero Hedge

Still, the rally is on and I'm in until I see better topping signs. Good luck

The S&P 500 is up 294 pts, or around 22%, since the current round of QE began in mid November...Whew! I should've trusted myself more. I jumped into the S fund on Nov 14 and I shouldn't have made a single move since then.

Who knows how long this will last? Nobody, but several people here have some pretty reasonable guesses. I'm still in at 60% S & 40% I.

I track the Auto Tracker every single day. I look at my ranking as well as the rankings of several others. I need to be aggressive long-term if I ever want to retire, due to stupid financial mistakes in my past.

There is no way that I can reach my goals in the F or G funds, so I find myself cheering for the Birchtree/Jimmy Joe side. Also, I'm a bit of a gambler and its just much more satisfying to be in the game. I hate being on the sidelines. That's an emotion that really needs to be controlled ;-) Never let emotions get in the way of smart decisions.

Tracking the Tracker gives me a perspective and tells me what a good performance really is at any given time and situation. It keeps me from getting complacent and satisfied. One thing I have learned is that the current situation - that out of nearly 1100 ppl only 5 are beating the S Fund and only 21 are below zero - can't last. In fact, I don't recall a situation like this ever lasting this late into the year.

oh, well, don't fight the trend. We all just need to be vigilant and nimble, but don't cheat yourselves out of great gains because there will be months at a time when decent gains are not available.

I moved to 100% G COB today to lock in my best May ever. In fact, even if I'd been in the G Fund all month it would be my best May ever. In 2010 I jumped into the I fund very early in the month and lost 10% in 3 days. I never recovered. So this year I'm elated to have a positive May. I just hope that the stupid 4 hr time lag doesn't sting me too much.

I think there's a lot more potential down side in Ben's speech tomorrow, so I made the decision to watch from the sideline. If I'm wrong June is just around the corner. I think it's not too much of a stretch to imagine May closes higher than it is now (S&P 500), and I think that June could easily be an up month. So, I will be looking for the next buy in opportunity.

Sure wish I had knowledge that Ben was speaking tomorrow! I agree, potential to the down side and would not have moved back in today. Best of luck everyone!

remark, you've done fantastic. It could be that I'll be on the sideline gaining 0.006% per day while watching you move toward 25% on the year. I make the wrong move lots of times so only time will tell. It will be an interesting final hour today as ppl position themselves for tomorrow. Maybe it will be a non-news event.

I'm still in the G fund, but looking to buy in soon, maybe COB Thursday. I'm waiting for another Fed Pres speech (Fisher on Thurs, I think) to buy in at a low point. I think at that point the jobs report on Friday will not matter much, and a new rally will start Friday, and continue the rest of the month. Just my guess.

Here is another article that supports my position. The chart is a touch different than one's I've posted before, because it actually measures the Fed's balance sheet. The message is very clear...see my signature.

What Happens When The Fed Hits The Breaks? This Chart From 2009 Holds Some Clues | Markets | Minyanville's Wall Street

That being said, I think the weakness in the market lately is the Fed testing the waters to see how hints of tapering QE ripples through the markets. The ripples seem pretty big, and I think QE will continue at its current levels through the summer.