Thread: MrBowl's Account Talk

You can do that here by following the LMBF method.

Originally Posted by Cactus

You can do that here by following the LMBF method.

The LMBF method has been really impressive, no argument here

Originally Posted by MrBowl

The LMBF method has been really impressive, no argument here

cc

Success = Oppurtunity + Preparedness!!!

I haven't posted in awhile because I haven't had much to say. One of my goals since the 2008 crash has been to be able to see corrections before they happen and move to the G or F Fund in advance, then jump back into equities at the bottom of the trough. Of course that's easier said than done, and studies show that the smaller the dip the harder it is to identify them ahead of time. Plus, you can do almost as well by just trying to identify the big corrections and riding out the small ones.

Other than about 1 of every 5 or 6 years (like '01, '02, or '08) you can do very well be remaining in stocks 90% of the time and just stepping aside when big corrections appear likely. Still not easy, but a lot less work, and it means you would only need to make 4-6 IFTs per year.

So, I didn't see this (so far) small one coming and now my plan is to ride it out. S Funders this month barely touched the green side last Thursday and now we're looking at about 4% under water for the month. It sucks, but many of my big mistakes took place when I sat on the sidelines and watched the market return to previous highs, and I would've been much better off just riding out the dip.

I still hold on to the idea that during a QE the corrections only reach 3-5%, but since this QE is eternal then we will someday rech a point where QE loses its effectiveness. So, therefore, I should treat each sell signal as the real deal and just get back in quickly if it was a false alarm. That's what I will do, unless I don't see the top :-)

The big questions in my mind are
1) will the 50 dma and my QE theory hold, or not?
2) Is the U.S. economy still strengthening or is it weakening?

I see a lot of arguments for both sides of #2, and the answer to #2 may give the answer to #1. The reason I haven't posted much lately is because I don't really know the answers at this point.

So, because I have gambler's blood in my veins and I'll probably never retire I will stay the course - willing to stomach a further fall while welcoming a sweet upswing that just may commence soon.

Lateral moves off a strong move higher get people very bearish almost instantaneously given the back and forth action which ultimately serves to ratchet up bearish sentiment and provides the short fuel for the next leg higher. In a bull market that's just common sense - but never easy to believe. Lateral moves make bears out of many previous bulls and make normal bears become super bears. The necessary energy needed to punch through resistance is being built up in our lateral bases which will need a trigger - like further lowering of interest rates somewhere in the global economy. A gap up/out would serve to trap a lot of short interest. Be in to win.

I'm moving 100% to the G Fund COB today. A few reasons why:

1) economic news continues to be poor and this seems to sap all upward momentum at this level

2) Tweet crash yesterday - a personal rule of thumb says such a crash foreshadows upcoming market move, with market ending up below flash crash low before too long

3) Having IFTs left gives me flexibility - I can get back in as early as tomorrow if I'm wrong or if the market falls enough

4) I'm still a bit negative for the month (like all in the S Fund) and I think it might be easier to grab the next 1-2% by buying lower soon rather than a staying for a 1-2% upward move from here

5) That May issue haunts me. I racked up big negative numbers on all of the previous 3 Mays. If I end up out of the market longer I will buy on a dip in May and hopefully break my May losing streak

I still feel all dips will be 5% or less during QE, and longer-term I am bullish and want to spend more time in stocks than out.

But momentum is good

Originally Posted by jpcavin

But momentum is good

Until it isn't...

Remember, the market goes down much faster than up...

Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues

Until it isn't...

Remember, the market goes down much faster than up...

I'll save negativity for when I'm out....For now, I am in and the market is glorious!

RMI has been warming the lily pad for awhile now.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

RMI has been warming the lily pad for awhile now.

Only because I am out of IFTs... if not I would have been in since last Friday (IFT to S on Thursday)... Maybe in May