Thread: MrBowl's Account Talk

Well, the S&P has had more trouble than I expected in closing at an all-time high. I'm still in the S fund, but I came fairly close to a short-term bail to the G Fund. The fact that April & new IFTs are right around the corner are a consideration when I see a topping pattern.

I have been writing about this for a couple weeks and it is already in the headlines...

Bernanke Saying He

Obama will have to act very fast to either convince Ben to re-sign or find another qualified person to make the transition as seamless as possible. Otherwise, I think this has the potential to shake up the markets more than anything we see out of Europe or China.

No more Helicopter Ben Burntankle? I'm sure his replacement will be SUPER left handed!

Originally Posted by nnuut

No more Helicopter Ben Burntankle? I'm sure his replacement will be SUPER left handed!

There are some hawks on the FED. Expect them to NOT be nominated or even considered. The next Chairman will have to be another dove like Bernanke. Otherwise, it's like taking the heroin away from the rock star abruptly.

Originally Posted by MrBowl

There are some hawks on the FED. Expect them to NOT be nominated or even considered. The next Chairman will have to be another dove like Bernanke. Otherwise, it's like taking the heroin away from the rock star abruptly.

Yep without our daily fix we will end up in REHAB!

This was the first time in over 2 years that I didn't jump to safety (F or G) while the topping pattern that I look for was nearing completion. The top completed and even yesterday was right in line with what I look for - a slight down day following a final peak. I've found that these tops are false more than half the time, mostly because (as we all know) this is a complex market and many other factors need to be considered. Today shows that I made the right choice.

The S&P action over the past 2-3 weeks may look like a top, but it also looks like consolidation just under a major line of resistance - the troops are gathering near the border and preparing to march across. The weakness has not been very weak, which is encouraging, but there have been no record high closes, either.

I remain 100% S Fund and think this will pay off in the near term.

Originally Posted by MrBowl

There are some hawks on the FED. Expect them to NOT be nominated or even considered. The next Chairman will have to be another dove like Bernanke. Otherwise, it's like taking the heroin away from the rock star abruptly.

Mayne another Ben , like Stein.

Originally Posted by Handballer

Mayne another Ben , like Stein.

Probably be Michael Moore!~

We stand a high probability chance of closing in the green today if big money goes for the push.

I'm still 100% S and I really don't want to waste an IFT on selling for a loss. Most of the time patience wins out and dips like this are quickly forgotten. I've fallen further and further back in times when I jumped to safety and watched stocks rise and I only want to exit with a clear topping signal.

I continue to hold on to the belief that during a QE dips/corrections are held to 3-5%, and this idea may be tested soon. However, that applies to the S&P 500 not the W4500, so I will likely have to stomach a bigger dip in the S funda and I'll be loading up on Tums, I suspect.

I still think that although market internals are currently ugly we are not seeing the market bubble pop and there is no oncoming credit crisis right now, so for the past 3-4 weeks we've been zig-zagging as "weak hands" finally reach their "I'm selling when the market hits..." -level, followed by dip buyers pushing the market to slightly higher highs. Will we run out of weak hands or dip buyers first?

I think the late day plunge under 1550 was due to the N Korea situation, as that confused country tries to make an island out of S Korea. News events such as this are always brief and quickly forgotten. So what I see otherwise is a fairly tight range of 1550-1573 for 3-4 weeks with gradually ascending highs and lows.

So at this point I plan to stay in. It could be that I'm completely wrong and in a couple of weeks I'll be writing from the bottom of the Tracker. Time will tell.

As of yesterday, this was still Ben's market (in a big way). So I suspect you are correct. I'm anticipating that the current downside action is going to be short term, unless that Fed Put disappears. And as I mentioned already, it's still in play as of yesterday. I did reign in 50% of my position prior to this weakness, but fully intend to hold the rest in C and S unless something changes. I still have 1 IFT left and I'd much prefer to ramp my stock position back up this early in the month. But we do need to be mindful that the sell in May crowd is out there, so while I'm bullish, I'm also wary.

Originally Posted by MrBowl

I'm still 100% S and I really don't want to waste an IFT on selling for a loss. Most of the time patience wins out and dips like this are quickly forgotten. I've fallen further and further back in times when I jumped to safety and watched stocks rise and I only want to exit with a clear topping signal.

I continue to hold on to the belief that during a QE dips/corrections are held to 3-5%, and this idea may be tested soon. However, that applies to the S&P 500 not the W4500, so I will likely have to stomach a bigger dip in the S funda and I'll be loading up on Tums, I suspect.

I still think that although market internals are currently ugly we are not seeing the market bubble pop and there is no oncoming credit crisis right now, so for the past 3-4 weeks we've been zig-zagging as "weak hands" finally reach their "I'm selling when the market hits..." -level, followed by dip buyers pushing the market to slightly higher highs. Will we run out of weak hands or dip buyers first?

I think the late day plunge under 1550 was due to the N Korea situation, as that confused country tries to make an island out of S Korea. News events such as this are always brief and quickly forgotten. So what I see otherwise is a fairly tight range of 1550-1573 for 3-4 weeks with gradually ascending highs and lows.

So at this point I plan to stay in. It could be that I'm completely wrong and in a couple of weeks I'll be writing from the bottom of the Tracker. Time will tell.

It's going to be a wild day...already is. Who knows, the market may even finish flat or up. Anyone who buys in on a day like today thinking they are jumping in on a dip may end up cursing our needless 4 hr lag time that the TSP folks impose on us.

That employment number guarantees we'll see plenty of Ben this month. Today's the kind of day he dons the cape and mask.