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Thread: MrBowl's Account Talk

  1. #157

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Like everyone I really don't know how far it will drop, and yes I think Europe and the rest may react poorly. I really think we will have more to the downside but what the heck do I know. Korean problem may escalate.
    Links Crude Settle $45.77 07-21-2017
    -$1.15 Loss




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  3. #158

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    Default

    I forgot about Korea. Good point

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  5. #159

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Most of us have forgotten about Korea. Team Spirit apparently halted. Whatever they call it now. Foal Eagle. If an eagle has a foal I guess it would be serious?

    Just one more thing.

    PO

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  7. #160

    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    This slide and last October one are similar in some ways. I bought into L2030 part-way through the slide last October and bailed near the bottom. Textbook investor stupidity. Told myself, I would turn off the TV and I didn't. That's OCD behavior and I knew I had a weakness. I learned from that one about market timing, patience and how quickly the market can bounce right back up. I had no IFT's and could only watch from the G Fund. In the old days when we got statements, no real internet, it was so much easier to ignore. I think I rode out the 2008-09 crash better than that one anxiety-wise. But, I had less money invested too.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBowl View Post
    What do you think will happen in Asia and Europe Sunday night? I bet they react negatively to our plunge. Then we start out negative Monday and maybe turn around 2nd half of Monday, possibly finishing Monday positive. Don't be fooled by an up day. This could go on for several days or a few weeks, in my opinion.

    I won't buy back in until after two consecutive up days. Of course, the global picture is what is driving this and how much will be resolved by Monday afternoon?

    I've seen articles and talking heads for months talk about an eventual correction, and most traders get tired of waiting as the tumble fails to materialize. Dips are bought and soon forgotten. When the correction finally happens many are caught off guard. It's the way these things typically go.

    One other consideration is that the speed and momentum of this move could possibly be a fat tail event. So much trading is done by computer algorithms that may not handle fat tail events well, and that could make the knife fall further.
    Cheers, Jeff
    US Army, Ret. 2010

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  9. #161

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Moving Funds to 100% G COB today. The market looks toppy and it seems the rally since Election Day seems to have lost steam. Big changes like today bring uncertainty. It's guaranteed that some policy surprises will come along soon. Some could shoot the market upward, however, but I'll just step aside because I think a 5% drop looks more likely than a 5% rise at this point.

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  11. #162

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    I spent some time back in the S fund in Feb and ended up with a fairly nice month, especially compared to my mediocre past 2 years. I thought I was wise to move out on the 15th. Was yday the day to start a down turn or was it a great buying opportunity? Seems like the market likes last nights speech. I decided to jump back in based on Steve Grasso's tweets. I don't like buying on 1% up days, but he's got such a good track record that its wise to strongly consider his advice. He rarely tweets, which tends to add a little more weight to his comments. He basically said that yday's down action was a buying opportunity and market can rise until specific details of new policies are laid out. In other words, until the required pain of the proposed policies is known we should see gains.


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  13. #163

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Two problems with that move on 3/1:
    1) It was wrong. Grasso is good but he was wrong that day. Its been a struggle for 7 weeks. You always have to weigh your options every day, and I remained patient.
    2) It was a day too late. The move would've looked a lot better if it included the nice up move on 3/1. Timing is everything.

    The S fund has had a good week. I would've remained in, but the nice surge in the past couple of hours has me running to the sideline to take a breather (mostly). Going with 75% G 25% S for now.

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  15. #164

    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Great minds think alike (lol).

    I'm stepping aside today also...similar reasons.

    So of course, that means the C and S will probably go on a 5% upswing.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)

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  17. #165

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    I think we look at the same triggers, right or wrong, because there were other times I made moves and saw that you did, too.

    One other thing I think may come into play is that tomorrow is an expiration Friday. The market usually seeks some sort of equilibrium and today's big leap seems like the kind of thing that gets reversed the next day. The S fund has had a much better week than the C fund. So short-term, over just a few days, I think the S fund has some down side. Longer-term, next few weeks, I just don't know. The market has done a good job of ignoring mediocre economic news. Don't know how long that will last.




    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Great minds think alike (lol).

    I'm stepping aside today also...similar reasons.

    So of course, that means the C and S will probably go on a 5% upswing.

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  19. #166

    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBowl View Post
    I think we look at the same triggers, right or wrong, because there were other times I made moves and saw that you did, too.
    One of our mutual "triggers" (lol)
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 7/14/17)

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  21. #167

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    I wonder how the French elections will affect the "I" fund?
    May the force be with us.

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  23. #168

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    Default Re: MrBowl's Account Talk

    Seems like nothing affects this market for very long. I have a friend that is always trying to go short, mostly based on economic news that he interprets as "doom and gloom". If he had any hair left he'd be pulling it out almost daily.

    I left 25% in the S fund because I just wasn't sure. It puts me at ease that I'm not completely missing out as it rises. If it starts a significant decline I won't be hurt much, but I can jump more fully in then.

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