Thread: MrBowl's Account Talk

If stocks are cheaper in December then I'm accepting of lower prices - it doesn't really matter to me in the long run. I'd like to secretly have a +$400K month but then I'm probably just dreaming.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47832.html

"Remember this, the market can fool you in a heart beat. When you think one thing is destined to happen it can throw you off course in a moments time."

DCA really builds wealth over the long run. I really don't have funds outside of the TSP to invest, unfortunately. In the TSP I tend to swing for the fences.

Keep going, Birch. Having some ammo set aside to go shopping when stocks are on sale is very smart.

The S Fund dropped 12% over 6 weeks from Sept 2 through Oct 13

It's gained half of that back in the past 6 trading days.

From my experience, inside our TSP DCA only makes a difference when you first start out and don't have much in there. After about 10 years you don't see much change unless you have now drastically increased your contributions. As far as dividends go we don't really get those in our index funds. We only see price changes per share.

Originally Posted by Cactus

From my experience, inside our TSP DCA only makes a difference when you first start out and don't have much in there. After about 10 years you don't see much change unless you have now drastically increased your contributions. As far as dividends go we don't really get those in our index funds. We only see price changes per share.

Yes, I was referring to how Birch buys his stocks and collects dividends, and that I don't really have the outside accts to do that. My general feeling about contributions is to watch the multi year high and low and pick the mid point. If the market is in the lower half have your contributions go to stock funds and if you're in the upper half have contributions go to the G Fund. Its more meaningful when you make fewer moves. Ideally, I think 2 to 6 moves is enough to do real well. I don't have the discipline to do that yet.

According to Jim Cramer, the 10 items he needed to call a market bottom were checked off over the weekend. Ebola will continue to be an issue, as we saw about an hour ago when rumors flew that a Dr had come down with Ebola and the market gave up a portion of its big gains today. Yesterday Cramer answered another question, since the market fell after his statement that we're in the clear now, by saying that any dip for now should be considered a buying opportunity rather than signs of a treacherous market. It seemed to me that a lot of the market action yesterday was due to the Canadian terrorist attack.

I do see a potential that we're in the early stages of a much bigger correction, but I think there's only a small chance of that so I'm burrying those negative thoughts and staying fully invested.

Originally Posted by MrBowl

I'm burrying those negative thoughts and staying fully invested.

Good for ya!

I bailed to the G Fund yesterday.

The contrarian Sentiment Survey vote came in very bullish last Thurs and I believe it's still a great system. It trades on a weekly basis so you can get an edge on it if you pick the days right. Much easier said than done, but the huge move up yesterday is nice to lock in when one of our leading indicators points to an overall down week.

Also, I hadn't really thought about the Fed announcement of the end of QE, but I have my eye on the 3rd qtr GDP announcement tomorrow. I think there is a fair chance that it's a disappointment (<3%) due to the poor economic news that has trickled in over the past 2-3 months.

I plan to buy back in on a big down day, and that could even be before the end of the month. Even if it doesn't, I'm now ahead of my summer peak.

The S fund peaked at +7% on 9/2
I bought the S Fund when it was +2.26% on 9/29
The S Fund bottomed at -5.02% on 10/13
The S Fund reached +3.74% on 10/28 (yesterday)

The 8.76% run up in 11 trading days is what I mean when I say that the S Fund is the rocket ship that will take you out of dips the fastest and farthest.

I think there could be some volatility the rest of this week, followed by an attempt to set new yearly highs in Nov.

I blew it on the GDP announcement. Revisions almost never affect the market. So, I'm on the wrong side of this. I still think volatility might be in our near future. I think I will wait till election day to buy back in, or the day before. Elections are usually good for the market, probably because its a celebration of our democratic process. Having a choice makes people feel good.

I had been in the C fund since dec 30 and market behavior bugged me ever since. I was able to exit without too much damage on Friday.

Lots of global news stories are a big concern. Plus, the action in gold, oil, bond yields, and foreign markets and GDP has been a concern. Here's a quick article that illustrates the concern over market performance.

New York trader: Beware head-and-shoulders chart

I should have mentioned the Greek election as well. I don't think it will lead to the "Grexit", but tension and debt restructuring are likely.

Here's a chart on the dollar action and gold. The mood beyond our shores does not seem good.

https://twitter.com/ReformedBroker/s...78945555902464