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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #757

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Using 2nd IFT to shift from previous monthly position of 50I and 50S and trade the I for the C.
    Going 50% S and 50% C as of COB today.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  3. #758

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Considering using 1st IFT to get out of current stock position (50%S and 50% C) and seek temporary shelter in the G.
    Up nearly 3% so far this month, and if today finishes up, we would have had 7 of last 8 days up. Nothing goes up much more than that, without a brief reset.
    VIX just a few days ago hit a 5 month low. Complacency is high. Up 7 of 8 days on the S&P. Hmmmm....will decide within 10 minutes of trading deadline.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #759

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    LOL...just when we broke the 2780 mark and I was feeling somewhat reassured I read your thread and start getting concerned again.

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  7. #760

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Make that 8 of 9 up days (if SP finishes positive today).
    Using 1st Monthly IFT to lock in approx 3% monthly gains....selling current position of 50% S and 50% C and going 100% G COB today.
    Medium range charts still look strong, so will look for better buy in price in the coming days.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  9. #761

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Was fortunate enough to miss most of this downturn and am currently parked in the G fund after locking in monthly gains over a week ago (up 3.3% for the month).

    About to go back in on this bloodbath day, 100% S COB today.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  11. #762

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Way to go on the 3.3% for the month, I was planning on getting out of the S fund on Friday, but didn't, that was a mistake given the carnage taking place today. I am seeking safety now by going 100% G COB today (last IFT of the month), to try and salvage a positive return for the month. Hopefully get back in at a lower price right before or right after the 4th of July.

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  13. #763

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by djlc86 View Post
    Way to go on the 3.3% for the month, I was planning on getting out of the S fund on Friday, but didn't, that was a mistake given the carnage taking place today. I am seeking safety now by going 100% G COB today (last IFT of the month), to try and salvage a positive return for the month. Hopefully get back in at a lower price right before or right after the 4th of July.
    Good luck to you.

    Worth reading Tom's summary this evening. There is a risk of giving in to fear and selling on big selloff days like this, as there are usually 3 scenarios, and 2 of them point to an up day the next day or so.

    1) Things "oversell" on days like this (down over 1%) leading to at least some short-term buy back up days, often the following day. Thats usually a better time to sell, if you believe we are entering "Scenario 3".

    2) Big selloff days are often near the bottom, or the bottom itself. Selling on those days only ensures one is "Buying High and Selling Low".

    3) There is major structural damage to the markets, and this big down day is just the tip of the iceberg (5%-10% correction underway).
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  15. #764

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Was on vacation and didn't hear this till the other day.
    Kudlow is considered by most financial movers & shakers to be the Economic "Voice of Reason" in DC.
    This would indicate that his "Free-Trade" platform, which helped the market shoot up 8-12 percent from March thru our recent highs a few weeks ago, is no longer a driving force for the market, while he is recovering.
    That explains a lot of the anxiety on Wall St recently.

    US economic advisor Larry Kudlow in good condition following heart attack, White House says
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/11/whit...mp-tweets.html
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  17. #765

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    The charts are starting to look very ugly.

    Have a read on Tom's Latest Evening Summary, but VERY bearish signals abound, be it Bear Flags or Head & Shoulders patterns.
    I am likely to cash in on my half percent monthly gains (and whatever today brings or takes away) and exit the S, for the safety of the G, until things look better.

    (Update Edit) Officially using 1st IFT to Exit 100% S COB today and enter 100% G

    Head and Shoulders on S&P (from Tom's analysis)



    Bear Flag on Small Caps (S)

    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 07-05-2018 at 10:45 AM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  19. #766

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    There are some small open gaps on those charts that could get filled first. Also, speaking of Oscar - in that other thread - he was the one who I learned about the H&S pattern being a continuation pattern at times. In a downtrending market an H&S pattern is bearish for sure, but if the market is in a rising trend, the neckline could hold and stocks move higher from there, making it a continuation pattern

    The problem right now is it is debatable if the S&P is in a downtrend or not. The highs were made in January so technically, maybe.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #767

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    With the -S- moving upwards right now, I'm hoping it shoots way up towards that gap by COB today (lol).

    Interesting on that Head and Shoulders description of continuity vs downturn.
    To me, I was also thinking of the Bear Flag on the S, and the geopolitical news coming in tomorrow regarding Chinese Tariff response.
    I like Oscar, as one of several "tools" that I would use to make a move, not as an absolute, as his daily swings don't always work well with our 2 IFT limit.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #768

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Well, happier with my exit today (locking in nearly 1.5% for July with 1 IFT left) , the 3rd straight up day on the S this week, including today's sharp rise of nearly 1% on VERY low volume.
    Seems we usually see a reversal of significant gains on holidays with low volume trading, once the crowd returns (probably Monday).
    Here's S&P today with volume bars on bottom.

    SP.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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