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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #745

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    After nearly a 2% gain this month (pending today) I will be using my 1st March IFT to lock in profits and wait for a better price to get back in. Going 100% G as of COB today.

    Reasons are:

    1) Dow Transports (and some other major indices) showing major Bear Flags.



    2) S&P showing a topping pattern, and increased possibilities of doing what has been mentioned on Tom's discussions for some time, namely a retest of last months lows:

    SP.jpg

    3) Tariff official announcement. While sparing Mexico and Canada (which helped markets higher yesterday) it targets China and other countries, which sets the stage for those countries to announce their retaliation.

    4) Reason #3 is why Trumps main voice of economic reason, Gary Cohn, resigned the other day. Thats not good news, when the "Smart Money" abandons ship.

    I've hurt myself recently in bailing to safety too early, but will rely on both the charts and the news. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day. lol
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  3. #746

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Looking for a reason to jump back into stocks, and almost did it today.
    However, something on the charts just didn't seem right, and after reading some of the threads here, including Whipsaw, Tom's commentary, and Oscar Carboni's Red Omni on the S&P (see vid below, via Nnutt) thanks Norm, I've decided to keep my powder dry for now, hold onto 2% monthly gain, and wait for a better price in the coming days. The tricky part is not waiting too long, which almost made me jump in today.

    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #747

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Jumped in today, leaving all G, and going 50% C and 50% S as of COB today.

    S&P having its 4th down day in a row, the most in several months was part of the equation.
    Stocks today seem to be doing what they did all week, open high, then start trending lower. Still up, but starting to roll off the earlier highs in the S&P right now.
    What I don't like, is the sharply lowering VIX right now, down 6% at time of writing. I know that its a signal to some to head for the sidelines, and I will try to stay cognizant of that, especially if Tom's consideration of a big Bear Flag on the indices is true.
    There is lots of news next week that could send stocks lower, the Fed of course, although many feel the interest hike was already baked in. We'll see, if this ends up being just a short term (1-5 day) trade.

    Speaking of Markets starting high and rolling over, this could be a sign that big institutions are starting to dump their money, they have to do it incrementally, so that their volume doesn't destroy their price. An interesting video describes this and how you can use it to profit.

    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  7. #748

    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    680

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Nice video! Thanks and have a good weekend.

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  9. #749

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Used my first April IFT to exit my position of fully in stocks (50/50 C & S) and go 100% F fund, COB today.

    Using the short term "Rule of 3's", that 3 days of moderate or better daily rises usually is followed by a down day (or more).
    But also, as mentioned by some of Tom's recent discussions, as well as Oscar Carboni's video's, Bear Flags have been present recently, and a new one seems to be forming up n the charts (S$P 500 below).
    Chart is from earlier this AM...seems its starting to head lower now.

    SP.jpg

    Have been looking at the bullish "Cup and Handle" formation on the F-Fund recently. Decided to double up on this one move bet and go F instead of G. We'll see.

    F-fund.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  11. #750

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    are you really down over 8% this year? maybe the rule of 3's isn't working out
    AH52

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  13. #751

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Should have listened to the rule more often, or just stay in stocks 100%.
    But could have been worse Badger. I could have been one of those idiots who bought into Crypto currencies this year and then lost 50-90%.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  15. #752

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I hear ya there - I almost bought ripple and bitcoin but someone wiser than I talked me out of it!
    AH52

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  17. #753

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Whew!
    Well, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Used my first April IFT to exit my position of fully in stocks (50/50 C & S) and go 100% F fund, COB today.

    Using the short term "Rule of 3's", that 3 days of moderate or better daily rises usually is followed by a down day (or more).
    But also, as mentioned by some of Tom's recent discussions, as well as Oscar Carboni's video's, Bear Flags have been present recently, and a new one seems to be forming up n the charts (S$P 500 below).
    Chart is from earlier this AM...seems its starting to head lower now.

    SP.jpg

    Have been looking at the bullish "Cup and Handle" formation on the F-Fund recently. Decided to double up on this one move bet and go F instead of G. We'll see.

    F-fund.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  19. #754

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    After 4 straight down days (and today flirting to be the 5th) will use 2nd April IFT to jump from the F fund (not as safe as I thought it might be) and take a brief plunge into stocks (50% S and 50% I).

    When there's blood in the streets, that's the best time to buy in. At least for a brief "relief rally".
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 04-25-2018 at 11:29 AM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  21. #755

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Oregon
    Posts
    3,651

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    After 4 straight down days (and today flirting to be the 5th) will use 2nd April IFT to jump from the F fund (not as safe as I thought it might be) and take a brief plunge into stocks (50% S and 50% I).

    When there's blood in the streets, that's the best time to buy in. At least for a brief "relief rally".
    Good luck FWM! Hope you are right.

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  23. #756

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Looks like we've cracked the trend of lower highs and have jumped above the Descending Trend Line and 50-day MA for 2 days.
    Dare we say....BREAKOUT????

    SP.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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