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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #697

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Not much time, will elaborate later, but with one last IFT left, and sitting in safety of G, I am going in 100% S COB today.

    Medium term picture (1-2 weeks) look bad, but after 4 straight down days...if today finishes down...a 1-2 day bounce should occur.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  3. #698

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    The rationale for jumping back from safety into stocks yesterday (July 31) was for a quick "one and out", hoping today would be a good, albeit short term bounce upward.

    But the reason I'm concerned over the next 1-3 weeks, is the Dow Transports having a major correction (from Tom's evening post)



    The S&P has been doing a slow roll-over, and either its going to ignore the Transports lead, OR there is just a lot of "irrational exuberance" still in the markets.
    However, the open gap on the S&P near 2430 is something Tom Crowley has been talking about a lot as a potential fall-back target
    Chart looks kind of "toppy".



    So with all this, I am thinking about sliding back out today...call it a failed experiment if the S fund (where I'm in) finishes down today...although as I'm writing this its up a fraction.
    Gotta log into TSP.gov and make a decision...5 min left.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #699

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Hampton Roads, VA
    Posts
    3,729

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I was surprised futures were up this morning, the day's performance is more in line with what expectations were being discussed in the market vids.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  7. #700

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Going 50% F and 50% G COB today.

    F fund showing it might be breaking out.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  9. #701

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Way to go, FWM! We are going to start calling you day trader.


    P.S. Don't forget to change your sig. line.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  11. #702

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Yeah, I agree with you.
    I think there is still (since November 2016) a lot of "auto-buy" orders on any dips. So as the smart money fades out of stocks, the masses still buy the dips.
    This might be why the stocks are not falling off as rapidly as indicators such as the Transports suggest.

    But you know how the game of "musical chairs" goes...when the music stops...everyone panics and rushes to the chairs.
    Except by that time, there are not enough chairs to go around...the smart money is already sitting in them.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  13. #703

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Going 50% F and 50% G COB today.

    F fund showing it might be breaking out.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Way to go, FWM! We are going to start calling you day trader.
    Yup...and this is why.

    S- Fund.png

    Actually my system is screaming at me to get back in today...and I will probably listen by the the IFT deadline...but have a few more things to check.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  15. #704

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    2nd day of month...using 2nd IFT of month...leaving F and G...going in 50% S and 50% I COB today.

    This will be my position for the rest of the month...although if things look bad towards late in the month, I might start fading into G.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  17. #705

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Seems we just filled that deep gap that Tom was preaching late last month (and I should have waited for).
    Seems there is chance of a bounce here, as we're likely closer to the turnaround...so staying in seems more prudent than bailing mid month.

    Unless......there is something bigger going on. Continued in the political forum (lol). https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-dis...173558128.html





    SP.png
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 08-17-2017 at 07:41 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  19. #706

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Interesting dichotomy...sometimes its worth waiting a day before sending something to print (lol).

    Charting a failed technical test, S&P 500 stalls at the breakdown point

    Published: Aug 29, 2017 12:48 p.m. ET
    Charting a failed technical test, S&P 500 stalls at the breakdown point - MarketWatch

    then

    Opinion: S&P 500 is on the verge of a breakout to the upside
    Published: Aug 31, 2017 10:53 a.m. ET

    S&P 500 is on the verge of a breakout to the upside - MarketWatch

    For what its worth...the first article referenced 2453 on the S&P is the "failed breakout point...hence breakdown coming" but the funny thing is that article became a moot point the very next day as be broke above it, and surged further ahead today.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  21. #707

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Have ridden a good wave upwards (50% S and 50% I) the past few weeks.
    Using 1st IFT of September to briefly cash in and step aside.

    Going 100% G COB Today
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #708

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Another reason for taking a brief pause and cashing out to the G COB yesterday. The 3rd point (being at a record high) seems to be an even better reason to step aside.

    The stock market just entered a dead zone that sees it drop 70% of the time


    • The S&P 500 has traded lower 70 percent of the time during the last two weeks of September since 1980, according to CNBC analysis using Kensho.
    • In that time, the index's average return has been negative 1.3 percent, the analysis found.
    • The S&P 500 is up 1.4 percent this month and currently sits at a record high.
    • But there are reasons why September could still live up to its dreadful reputation.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/mark...-the-time.html
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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