Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Going back in...as that's what my system calls for.

Gained 1 to 1.5% on the markets Friday and don't want to squander that,
Sure we could go lower, some of the charts even suggest that.
On the other hand...it could be that Thursday was our true "panic-capitulation day" followed by a slightly less heavy selloff Friday and near even or slightly up today.

Will do something I haven't done in awhile...go 100% C as its been the best performer recently.

If it turns today, you're gonna get one helluva price!

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

If it turns today, you're gonna get one helluva price!

Well, if this is the turn, then I got one hell of a price.

SP.jpg

Unfortunately given the first few days of the month, I paid quite a hefty price too lol!

We've been on a decent run-up from the most recent low in January, but the charts are not looking bullish right now, and Feb to early March have produced some of our worst market lows in recent memory (March 2009 and March 2003).
Cramer's "Off the Charts" had the Fibonacci Queen saying that any rally from the recent lows would have a tough time getting past the mid 1900's and time-wise should not last beyond this week. Worth a peek...good chart work (below)

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/26/crame...-end-soon.html

Will get out while the going is good. Well actually given some of the losses I've absorbed maybe should re-phrase "while the going is only bad, but not yet catastrophic."

Thanks! Good post. I'm cautious!

Well, I thought I would be locking in a loss today, certainly did not expect a "Whipsaw" at the end that lets me exit on a much preferred up day.

SP.jpg

That kind of volatility makes me feel better about getting out of this environment.
Will look at a better buy in towards end of month (maybe).

Heard that the Dow has had only 4 days this year that changed less than triple digits (100 pts).
How's that for volatility?

Sidestepping last week has put me almost 4% above the S&P for just this month (nearly 5% better than S-fund for Feb) if today's levels hold.
My system is screaming for me to get back IN. However, the charts are are showing at least another 1-2% downtrend beyond today's current lows before we get any kind of bounce.
Not sure what I'm going to to do. You can't go wrong going back in on bloodbath days...but how much more blood makes the difference whether you hit a single or hit a homer.

Gotta hand it to Cramer and the "Fibonacci Queen" chart segment he showed 2 weeks ago on Jan 26th (below). They nailed it...saying that the short term rally would not get past last Thursday (Feb 4th). And sure enough, Friday was our 1st free-fall day.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

We've been on a decent run-up from the most recent low in January, but the charts are not looking bullish right now, and Feb to early March have produced some of our worst market lows in recent memory (March 2009 and March 2003).
Cramer's "Off the Charts" had the Fibonacci Queen saying that any rally from the recent lows would have a tough time getting past the mid 1900's and time-wise should not last beyond this week. Worth a peek...good chart work (below)

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/26/crame...-end-soon.html

Will get out while the going is good. Well actually given some of the losses I've absorbed maybe should re-phrase "while the going is only bad, but not yet catastrophic."

One thing that always amused me last year on my odyssey thru the Tracker, was avoiding the stampede of the "S-Fund Herd"... group of about 120-150 who for some reason decided to just park it in the S-Fund for nearly a year or more.
Whenever they would get close, a near flat or slight change day on the markets might result in me going down (or up) over 100 places on the Tracker. Sometimes the investment goal became to avoid the stampede-lol
I now look back at the herd today...and want to reach out to my fellow members with the main theme of TSPTalk (below)



Friends....this part of the cycle is not where you want to "buy and hold". That was 2009-2014.
Unless of course, you're holding in the F-Fund.

My system is SCREAMING at me right now to get in. I'm trying to ignore it...if I had 2 moves this month I would go 50% in right now...but with only 1 left......don't know.
Gut tells me today is the blood day and tomorrow will start that way but might reverse...leading to a few days of upward bounce.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

My system is SCREAMING at me right now to get in. I'm trying to ignore it...if I had 2 moves this month I would go 50% in right now...but with only 1 left......don't know.
Gut tells me today is the blood day and tomorrow will start that way but might reverse...leading to a few days of upward bounce.

Should have listened to my system yesterday (lol).
Probably going in 100% C in a few minutes (have about 10 min to look a few more things over and decide).