Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Brilliant turnaround from last year, FWM. Courageous move today. I'm still looking for the light, myself.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Going in 50% S and 50% I COB today.

See Tom's Market Commentary on short term gaps on S and I funds that might lead to short term positive gain.
Nervous because I'm breaking from long term trend, but can bail without fail given a new set of IFT's in a few days.

Originally Posted by amoeba

Brilliant turnaround from last year, FWM. Courageous move today. I'm still looking for the light, myself.

Thanks Amoeba,
There is a fine line between courageous and greedy stupidity, and I fear I may find myself on the wrong side of it come Monday morning.
Typically when we have bounce backs after a few down days, there is at least 1 or more days of follow through. So as stocks rose this morning I was banking on equities continuing to rise thru the day, leading to some dumb money following thru Mon-Tue next week.
So with one IFT left and only 3 full trading days left to use it, I thought it was a perfect opportunity. Well, sentiment changed in a hurry during the afternoon and stocks dropped fast. We'll see what Monday brings...but if we go down sharply in the morning I'll likely exit and just accept a losing day as a lessons learned. If we're up...I might cash in my chips anyway and not get too greedy.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Thanks Amoeba,
There is a fine line between courageous and greedy stupidity, and I fear I may find myself on the wrong side of it come Monday morning.
Typically when we have bounce backs after a few down days, there is at least 1 or more days of follow through. So as stocks rose this morning I was banking on equities continuing to rise thru the day, leading to some dumb money following thru Mon-Tue next week.
So with one IFT left and only 3 full trading days left to use it, I thought it was a perfect opportunity. Well, sentiment changed in a hurry during the afternoon and stocks dropped fast. We'll see what Monday brings...but if we go down sharply in the morning I'll likely exit and just accept a losing day as a lessons learned. If we're up...I might cash in my chips anyway and not get too greedy.

Yes, greed and stupidity will wipe away about 2 months of hard work. Should have stayed the course in the F and wait for lower lows.

Not sure if I'll move back into G today and limit losses...or stick it out becasue today would be 7 of 8 down days...and a quick snap back often occurs.

Leaning towards the former...based on a good weekly chart analisis from Tom, regarding the bear flag and possible lows in the lower 1800's. I had targetted upper 1700's previously. Either one would be a better place to step back in.

Decided to cut losses and bail into G.

Could see a snap back tomorrow with today's free-fall...or could see further drop.
Staying in would be like a poker player losing a decent chunk of winnings, but instead of walking away with most of your profit intact...staying at the poker table to recoup the loss of the latest hand.

I want to get back to strategic investing...and away from the gambling table.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

I want to get back to strategic investing...and away from the gambling table.

Eh, what? Here now, my good Man!

Sounds like Hate Speech

Dem's fightin' words pardner!!

Thou art a heretic!

Witch!! Witch!!

The progressively devolving conversation facing those who refuse to invest.

September Monthly Wrap Up

Overall for September, my account was down -2.03%

The tracker seems to be having issues so can't see my monthly ranking now. Compared to the other funds for the month, I could lie to myself and say I had another good month because I beat all 3 stock funds again...but that would be lying to myself.
Other funds for the month: C fund -2.47%.....S fund -4.80%.....I fund -5.02%.....F fund +0.75%

The more important score...for the year...I was still up +6.36%.
That was #47 on the Tracker which is in at about the top 4% of the Tracker.
Was #26 for the YTD last month so I had a bad month....because I broke away from my system for 1 day.
If I had stayed in the F fund for the last 3 days of the month instead of jumping in stocks one day for a 2.5% loss...I would now be up near 9.2% for the year and in 21st place.
The other funds for the year: C fund -5.24%.....S fund -5.98%.....I fund -4.33%.....F fund -1.44%

Again, I can try patting myself on the back for being 10-12% above the stock indices and near 5% above the best fund (F) but that would be bull$h!t.

I start this month in the G fund...and plan to stay disciplined and focused...wait until a lower low, and a better sign of a bottom according to the charts to move into stocks.
Since I can only move into stocks one time, I may move into equities in 2 steps...one when we start approaching chart predicted bottoms and the 2nd half the day we get a big snap back. Of course, if we've already bottomed, then I will have to reconsider....we'll see.

Still upset at myself for being selfish and stupid, going in against my best judgment COB last Friday, only to catch the worst day of the month on Monday where indices were down 2-3%.
So as a painful reminder to my greed induced stupidity which made me break discipline from my system...I go back to our most recent Black Monday and dedicate this song TO MYSELF!

Oh, FWM - Im ahead of you for the month of Oct. Even in the Top 10.

Don't expect to be there for long, BUT I will relish it while I can!

FWM,
Where did you go? I was following you on the tracker a few spots below and then you disappeared. I must not have been paying attention to any moves.

Go read 2 posts below...I made a stupid 1 day move into stocks and caught a 2.5% drop. Hindsight, should have stayed in.

Not chasing right now...just waiting for better buy.

Got it. I took my eye off the ball and you shot right by me.

Cramer: We're in a danger zone. Sideline your cash

Cramer: We're in a danger zone. Sideline your cash - Yahoo Finance