Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Originally Posted by Bquat

So compared with October's bottom, do you think we're done at 10% or is there more to come?

That's the $64K question at the moment... The major indicies (DOW, NAS, SPX) are heading south again after peaking an hour or so ago intraday.

Are you ready to find out? 18 Minutes before I have to make up my mind.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

With about 90% of us (and Wall St fund managers) underperforming "Buy and Hold" its valid for most of us here.

I agree with you, FWM, but with this site being geared to trading, talk like that may end up getting you banned.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

That's the $64K question at the moment... The major indicies (DOW, NAS, SPX) are heading south again after peaking an hour or so ago intraday.

Waiting here. Was going to add C & S. Unbelievable over reaction on the VIX and caught my lower support level on the DOW way to fast. I had pegged "15340 - 15500 dow next support level" around 8 this morning on twits. We could bounce considering summertime volatility but I don't need to be right on the bottom. Best of luck on everyone's decision.

Originally Posted by Bquat

So compared with October's bottom, do you think we're done at 10% or is there more to come?

Yup...BUT...a few days of 2-3% upsurge is likely coming soon....then another 10%.

Go back in my posts a few days and you'll see a table that shows where HISTORY says we're going over the next 13 months.
Some big up months mixed in if you look at similar events...but better be nimble.
Like I said...now thru next spring or early summer, if you're gonna buy and hold one of our funds, then F stands for "friend".

First day of the month...1st IFT of the month:

100% F fund COB today.

Will consider a dip buy after this 2nd leg nears the length of the 1st drop.

August Monthly Wrap Up

Overall for August, my account was down -0.07%

As unimpressive as it was...it was possibly my best month outperforming the other funds for August, thanks for not getting greedy and bailing to safety as volatility started.
Other funds for the month: C fund -6.03%.....S fund -5.80%.....I fund -7.36%.....F fund -0.11%

So on the bright side I beat all the funds again for the month (except the G)...and more importantly missed most of the corrective slide...and preserved nearly all yearly gains.
On the Monthly tracker I finished #336 (out of 1462) for August...about the top 23% across the entire Tracker

The more important score...for the year...I was up +8.57%.
That was #26 on the Tracker (out of 1072 non-premium folks that I can "see"). That's in at about the top 3% of the Tracker.
Was #62 for the YTD last month so I'm still "moving on up".
The other funds for the year: C fund-2.84%.....S fund -1.24%.....I fund +0.73%.....F fund +0.68%

As for September, these are traditionally the worst times for stocks. And with a possible (or likely) Fed rate hike looming for Sep, and China uncertainties, continuing with my system of being in the best fund 90-95% of the time, I plan on spending a lot of time in the -F- fund. But will wait for new lows and with the increased volatility I might take a 1-2 day buy in and see if I could use the volatility to my advantage for a quick gain. But I don't see any possible surge in stocks to new highs unless a rate hike is off the table (or a few weeks AFTER it happens), Oil rises back up significantly, and China issues simmer down.

Good luck to all.

Awesome performance for sure last month and all year!

Your post reminded me of what I consider hands down my best year ever, 2008. The S&P finished down nearly 40% that horrible year, and yet I finished with a gain of +1.6%. Not just that, but I did it with my usual ridiculous number of trades (I just checked my spreadsheet, I made 40 IFTs that year), and even better I clawed back from double-digit losses not once, but twice in 2008; first from a -10.78% low in January to a +4.55% peak in October, then I plummeted once again to -10.66% in mid-November, and came back to finish the year in the green while most people endured an awful year (not to sound like I'm bragging, the next year 2009 was my worst and I finished trailing the market by 35%!). What a wild year that was and now I think we're in for a similar ride. I'm determined to get out of the red and jumped in today gambling that today would be the typical retest of the low. All my fingers and toes are crossed, futures are moving up strong now...I won't overstay my welcome though, maybe only 3 days and I'm out to G.

Anybody still think the main reason we're tanking now is because of China?

US vs Asia.png

Oh yeah...riding the wave baby!

F fund.png

Despite yesterday, still feeling good about sitting in the F-fund this month.

As for a possible "bottom" you might not like what the charts tell you...using the simple leg 1 off Dead Cat Bounce method.


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