No worries, you're safe until I decide to jump in
No worries, you're safe until I decide to jump in
Those who were following my thread saw how bullish I was the past 2 months, with inflation going down and rate cuts appearing on the horizon for 2024.
I made a decent profit off it late last year, but now having different feelings in the short term.
Latest CPI went UP 0.3% from 3.1% to 3.4%. This could have huge implications on the long expected March rate cutting that Wall St has already priced in.
I actually wanted to exit Friday, but had problems logging in and missed the deadline...nothing changing my opinion today, Tom, Oscar Carboni made some good points on this issue.
My system is to stay in stocks most of the time but exit at key charting points briefly. Well, the large scale S&P shows something different recently, instead of short bull flag downturns in a rising pattern, its starting to show more of a "Top". It also has a large open gap about 8% below current levels. Unless we see a reverse to the original "Inflation is Lowering" storyline, I think what we are seeing now is a top forming, from the chopping of smart money that bet on rate cuts Nov-Dec but is now starting to see that March rate cut thesis falling apart in the short term and selling stocks to lock in profits, vs the "Dumb Money" who missed out on the recent rally and now finally are bold enough to jump back in. This chopping will end soon and the market should go big one way or the other. My fear is its going to go down, and I charted out (in red) how we might fill that open gap 8% lower, which lines up with the longer range trendline of recent lows. We'll see how it turns out, but having 2 IFT's in hand, if unexpected good news on inflation somehow comes out, I still have another January move to jump back in. So using 1st Jan IFT to exit 100% S position and going 100% G COB today which is what I tried to do last Friday unsuccessfully.
SP.jpg
CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT
FWM, I was thinking along the same lines (being the dumb money and jumping in late on the rally). It does look like a double top with a slow roll over in progress.
50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!
Leaving G Lillypad after yesterdays monster drop and todays up, but slightly fading, 2nd day.
If CPI had stayed steady or even gone up, that would give me longer term worries, but a drop from 3.4% down to 3.1% is a good move in the right direction, it just didn't move down as far as some analysts "expected" it to.
VIX down bigtime today also...but don't have a good feel on whether large or small caps will be the "leader" so will hedge my bets and split move into equities between C and S funds.
Leaving 100% G position COB today and going 50/50 C and S.
CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT
Funny things,
Being undecided when jumping back into stocks, if large caps or small caps would be the leader, so I split my portfolio 50/50 between C and S.
Reality last Friday illustrated that...exactly to the dot, lol.
C and S the same.jpg
CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT
Looks like Small Caps have begun to turn over, while S&P500 seems to be topping (below).
Have been 50/50 S and C for over a month, but will use 1st March IFT to lock in those gains and fight another day...maybe before months end.
Leaving 50% S and 50% C position and going 100% G COB today.
C vs S.jpg
CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
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