Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Originally Posted by JTH

This is horrible, FWM post a legit story, and Jimmy tries to backwash it with vile bullish manure. Where's the puke button when you need it.

It was rather Birchtree-ish of him...

IMO, it's trouble to be married to a position. When things change you have to change too. It's easy to argue based on your current position. It's best to be neutral so your emotions doesnt get the best of you. I'm still in but ready to exit when the time comes.

very few of members post here and mostly its the traders not the b&h folk. We should welcome everyones comments tho a little ribbing is fun too if not offesive. jimmy may stay in all year and kick everyones ass who knows?

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Well...this was unforeseen to me (and most on top in the Tracker)...a "Black Swan" news event special to the -S- fund only:

There's A Rotation Underway Out Of Small-Cap Stocks That Could Be Bad News For Everyone
By Matthew Boesler | Business Insider – Mon, Apr 1, 2013 1:51 PM EDT

Small-cap stocks have been lagging the market recently.

Miller Tabak's Jonathan Krinsky brings this to clients' attention today, writing, "Generally, when the small-caps show relative weakness vs. the large caps, it is a sign that investors are moving out of the riskier/high-beta names and into the 'relative safety' of the large/mega-caps."

There's A Rotation Underway Out Of Small-Cap Stocks That Could Be Bad News For Everyone - Yahoo! Finance

Hate to waste an IFT this early just to shift from one stock fund to the other, but may have to consider it if this trend continues.
Will the S Fund turn into last months I Fund...down when everything else is up?

I'm pretty sure it will ... afterall all, I moved into it just in time to catch the last few down days, like I did last month with the I fund. Lol! I'm a pretty good contrarian indicator of late. Currently 100% F after a bad 4 day trade into the S!

Originally Posted by JTH

This is horrible, FWM post a legit story, and Jimmy tries to backwash it with vile bullish manure. Where's the puke button when you need it.

As one who can make IFTs twice a month, I speak for we of theTsp. We can't go chasing for gains like day traders. Perhap some of you with money elsewhere in the markets may. I hear what is good for me and those of us who are generally buy and holders. And I continue to hear from reliable sources, talking heads, Birchtree, you know, people that have made millions in the stock market, that this indeed is the climate to invest for a long, long haul to SPX 1700. I may go 50C 50I today.

Very odd market this morning:

Stocks are down.
Gold is down
Oil is down
Vix up a little but not crazy like it tends to do as we slide off a top.

Disturbing is that Dow Tran$ have topped and now dropping towards 50 day EMA.
If you look at Dow Tran$, its very parabolic and shows good top and good drop (fuzzy blue line is my line to near where it is so far tdy)...hard to see how stocks could continue to rise against this (below):

DowTrans.png
Also, large caps have become the leader, but based only on a small number of sectors...pointed out on CNBC.
Large scale issue...recession in Europe, stagnation in Asia, esp China.
Also...hate being in stocks when JTH, J Ross (and I think Tom Crowly) are out.
Only thing that kept me from exiing to G was being undecided about whether we would see a brief deadcat bounce in S fund nexy day or 2.
Also, watching CNBC today, it seemed like "blood in the streets". So dip buyers might briefly jump back in.

Bottom line, will wait another day.
An up day might give a better exit price.
A down day in all indices confirms correction underway.
Both point to an exit...at least for now.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Very odd market this morning:

Stocks are down.
Gold is down
Oil is down
Vix up a little but not crazy like it tends to do as we slide off a top.

Disturbing is that Dow Tran$ have topped and now dropping towards 50 day EMA.
If you look at Dow Tran$, its very parabolic and shows good top and good drop (fuzzy blue line is my line to near where it is so far tdy)...hard to see how stocks could continue to rise against this (below):

DowTrans.png
Also, large caps have become the leader, but based only on a small number of sectors...pointed out on CNBC.
Large scale issue...recession in Europe, stagnation in Asia, esp China.
Also...hate being in stocks when JTH, J Ross (and I think Tom Crowly) are out.
Only thing that kept me from exiing to G was being undecided about whether we would see a brief deadcat bounce in S fund nexy day or 2.
Also, watching CNBC today, it seemed like "blood in the streets". So dip buyers might briefly jump back in.

Bottom line, will wait another day.
An up day might give a better exit price.
A down day in all indices confirms correction underway.
Both point to an exit...at least for now.

Very well said. Some folks have not noticed that the rotational saftey into defense stocks is already bloated, the next rotation is cash.

Meant to update earlier, but struggled with decisions, and finally at 1159 ET I hit the IFT button for 50% G and 50% F.

As stated yesterday, the landscape has changed...Dow Transports breaking downward into 50 day EMA territory, and as JTH mentioned yesterday, money (likely led by fund managers) has shifted from small caps to safer large caps, and the next rotation is into cash (Jasons words, not mine). So looking to at least get out of the S.

Only missing ingredient is our Sentiment Survey...still on a buy or hold, and I suspect it will get even more "bearish" later today, indicating a strong buy (lol).

One thing that caught my interest...a look at the smartest of our smart money...compared to the lowest part of the tracker which just a week or two ago was mainly F or G, is now primarily in stocks.

Smart v Dumb $.jpg

Hey..who dat at #8??

Not sure what the job report will bring...but unless its a blockbuster number (more than 250K) it seems like its a "sell the news".

- If the number is lower...then this worsens the fear of global slowdown spreading to the US. Result should be "sell".

- If it goes near expectations (near 190K) then no changes to current market, and the current market just began a downtrend. Result should be "sell".

- If its a bigger number (250K or above) well, then a short term "buy" is possible...but then fears quickly turn back to what spooked the markets in late Feb...namely the Fed trimming back QE.

We've been surprised in the past with these jobs reports...I have no idea which one will come out, but often the surprises have been higher than expected numbers. March was a good month for the markets and I don't think anyone significantly halted hiring, except for Gov't agencies and likely civilian defense contractors.

Mr Bowl made an interesting point a few weeks ago with one of his article links.
Basically, QE has supported every major rally the past 5 years, and every time we weren't in QE (brief periods only) the market tanked.
See chart (below:

SP QE.jpg


The latest round of QE in Dec, namely "infinity" was likely meant to keep markets calm while approaching QE deadlines...namely pushing that deadline a year or two into the future. This seems to have worked even beyond Ben's wildest dreams. Niether rain, sleet or snow...nor Bush tax cuts expiring, Sequester cuts, nor N Korea crazy leader dancing "Gangnam Style" on top of his missile silo's has has stood in the way of the markets biggest, boldest, bullish run, yet.

Reason I point this out, is that our dips may not be as dramatic as "the charts" would seem to indicate. I might need to keep this in mind when stepping out, to not stay out too long.

Feel we may not have a major correction (more than 5%) until most people make this QE connection and get overly bold and complacent, feeling the market will never stay down for long and as long as QE is in effect till infinity, the market will go up till infinity. When that happens, you'll see our Sentiment Survey go 60%+ bullish...and THAT's when we will likely see our good top & drop.

Until then....fight the Fed at your own peril.

Here is the link to what I said March 10:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/politics/1...tml#post398460

And if you don't want to click here's what it said:


"Here is a nice chart made last year during the Fed's Operation Twist, clearly showing the difference between market performance when QE is taking place and when it isn't...

Dr. Ed's Blog: Stocks & QE

The latest QE (QEternity) was announced in mid Sept 2012 and commenced Nov 14, 2012. I didn't make a chart, but everyone on TSPTalk should already know that the recent market low took place the next day and the S&P 500 is up 14.4% since Nov 14, with only two small very brief dips (3-4%) since.

One difference between QE2 and the current Fed operations is that the boost in 2010 came once QE2 was announced, but in the current QE the market moved sideways between the announcement date in mid Sept and the commencement day Nov 14. It makes me wonder if we are approaching diminishing returns. One day we will.

Also, if you still don't think this is the Fed's market then just look back a couple weeks at the day that the Fed notes from January became public and contained wording that at SOME POINT the POMO could be varied if the economy was looking stronger...and the market tumbled like a rock that afternoon."


At some other point I mentioned that the Federal Funds rate has been 0-0.25% since the Fall of 2008, which has caused interest-bearing investments such as savings accounts and CDs to yield next to nothing. If Ben instead had higher rates (2-3%) and didn't push yield-chasing investors into stocks, where would the stock market be today?

It's been tough staying in lately, but I remain in the S Fund thinking that any correction will be limited to 3-5% in the S&P 500.