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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #721

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    So from a tactical perspective, what is the purpose of this tax plan?

    Currently, regarding jobs, we've been at "full employment" statistically (5% or lower) for over 2 years. We now have a "Labor Shortage" in most sectors.
    https://www.marketplace.org/2015/09/...ull-employment

    Currently, regarding corporations...they have never been more flush with cash than now.


    So basically, there are no significant amount of new jobs that are needed by our economy. (We need more workers from somewhere else actually).

    And corporations have more than twice the amount of cash than they did at the end of the last boom cycle that ended in 2007. Yet now we are going to give them even more cash to hoard (keeping it out of the economy)???

    So what is the purpose of this tax change again...that is going to add 1.5 Trillion to the National Debt?
    Wasn't the whole thing behind the tax cuts was to give money back to business and create jobs?

    The labor shortage as I see it is two fold; unqualified workers and wages are to low to attract the worker (benefits, etc.)

    We need to see apprentice programs started to get the skilled labor back in the market and increase wages and benefits.
    May the force be with us.

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  3. #722

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    Wasn't the whole thing behind the tax cuts was to give money back to business and create jobs?

    The labor shortage as I see it is two fold; unqualified workers and wages are to low to attract the worker (benefits, etc.)

    We need to see apprentice programs started to get the skilled labor back in the market and increase wages and benefits.
    Yes I like the apprentice programs, but if corporations already have tons more cash than they've ever had...before the proposed tax cuts...and haven't used much of it to create jobs, then whats the point of giving them even more cash at the expense of the added deficit/debt????

    Its probably true that we've truly entered the "Labor Shortage" phase of the 8 year recovery, where we can't create more jobs because there just simply aren't enough workers to fill them at a 4.2% unemployment rate.

    Labor shortage in the United States becoming an increasingly dire issue

    Labor shortage in the United States becoming an increasingly dire issue | Global Risk Insights
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 11-02-2017 at 05:20 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #723

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Its been an interesting time, waiting in the F fund for 7 weeks now, for the 3% (or more) drop that we are historically overdue, given being at a record time period since the last one.

    The charts seem to be at a crossroads, maybe a top, yielding to a brief downturn, then the next leg up, or maybe an inverted shoulder forming in the next few days, in the form of another leg up.

    SP.png

    Given the statistical record of gains during the Thanksgiving Holiday period, on low volume (and news low volume) below, from Tom's commentary, I'm thinking of doing a quick "in and out" possibly buying in Tuesday morning...and selling Friday morning. Will wait and see how the markets open early Tuesday.
    This move would not be part of my system which says to stay put in G or F. Will have to look at more things and ponder this one a bit.

    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 11-20-2017 at 11:00 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  7. #724

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    IFT into 50% C and 50% S effective COB today.

    Don't like buying in during a big up day, but likely to at least "melt" upwards with momentum for the next few days.
    Don't foresee staying in this position thru the rest of November....but we'll see.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  9. #725

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Kinda made a slight profit last week going into stocks, but might lose all of it today.
    Planning to go back to my original plan, 100% F fund...as nothing falls forever (chart below) shows it might be breaking out of a "double bottom".

    The point is always to "buy low"....whether its stocks or bonds.

    F-fund.png
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 11-27-2017 at 11:15 AM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  11. #726

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Using 1st IFT of Dec to leave -F- and go all into equities (50/50 S and C).
    Strong seasonality period and 2nd slight down day today (so far), and my system requires me to stay in stocks in a bull market 90% of the time, and I've been out for almost a month and much of the last 2 months.

    Thinking the Gov't shutdown won't be significant enough to dampen markets BUT don't like the charts nor the overly bullish sentiment of the past few weeks, so this might just be for the next 5-10 business days...we'll see.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  13. #727

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    After 3 good up days in a row (after getting back fully into C and S funds the last week of Dec) will roll the dice and try to time a brief downturn.

    Lots of "irrational exuberance" on CNBC right now. VIX at super low levels.

    Went 100% G effective COB today.
    Could be jumping back in 1-3 trading days from now...we'll see.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  15. #728

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Stayed out of stocks too long after leaving in early January.
    Re-positioning back into stocks (50/50 C and S) on back of 2 huge down days (and maybe a slightly down to even day today).
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  17. #729

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Stayed out of stocks too long after leaving in early January.
    Re-positioning back into stocks (50/50 C and S) on back of 2 huge down days (and maybe a slightly down to even day today).
    Welcome back!


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  19. #730

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Things are structurally unstable in the markets right now...after nearly a decade of easy money, the "threat" of rapidly rising rates is upon us.
    Mind you, rates are still very low historically, but the brief recent rise along with the massive cash and tax stimulus the US is putting in (at the worst possible time of the business cycle), is raising the "prospect of rapid inflation" and rapidly rising rates.
    Since the market is a forward looking indicator, people are already trading on what they think will be occurring by the middle to latter part of the year.
    The other catalyst, which we have no control over is Europe. Draghi has hinted at more rate increases, and just today, an analyst said that he expects the Bank of England to start raising rates faster than expected.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/m/cb7e0ebd...t-to-hike.html

    With that, I don't anticipate this "situation" to be rectified in the next few days. Yes we will have some dead cat bounces to the upside, and I've been planning to use that textbook scenario to briefly exit into G.
    But, as yesterday showed, there are too many late day reversals happening now to try to time it by our IFT deadline.
    So today with the market down early, I decided that the earlier I exit, regardless of daily action, the better I'll feel if we hit new lows (which we are not too far away from).
    Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if some bargain hunters come in with late day action, not making me take too much of a hit today upon exiting.

    As for when to re-enter...I think its when everyone accepts higher rates, and sees strong economic data (the 3-4% GDP growth we've been promised) coming in at the same time. Or statements from Central Banks that they may not raise as much as expected.
    I promised myself I would not get caught in another 2000-2001, or a 2008-2009. Hmmm, add that 8-9 year time length to 2008-2009 and that would make it...???

    Exited to 100% G effective COB today.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  21. #731

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Greenspan (no stranger to bubbles who correctly predicted that "irrational exuberance" would lead to the 2000 crash) has been talking about this for the past 6 months.
    Interesting timeline of this new bubble he has been harping about since at least last summer.

    Greenspan Sees Return of Stagflation Unseen Since 1970s - July 31, 2017

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...en-since-1970s


    Alan Greenspan says there are two bubbles, in stocks and bonds - Feb 1, 2018

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/al...nds-2018-01-31

    And in the midst of this longer term picture, which drove the VIX way up sharply in the first place, is this short-term "fuel on the fire"..."morons" having huge shorts on the VIX. How many times have I said that "shorting" is not investing and should be banned to the casino's.

    Cramer blames this week's crazy market on a 'group of complete morons' out speculating
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/cram...of-morons.html

    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 02-08-2018 at 12:05 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #732

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Greenspan (no stranger to bubbles who correctly predicted that "irrational exuberance" would lead to the 2000 crash) has been talking about this for the past 6 months.
    His timing wasn't great so I wouldn't trade off of what he says.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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