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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #709

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    FYI,

    Sitting in the safety of the G after locking in profits a week ago, with one more move before the end of the month...I'm looking at the S fund (below) and asking myself "Do I want to buy in here, at the top"?




    I could stay in the G...but then looking at the F I ask myself "Are we a month off the peak and bouncing off a 1 month low"?



    With that, I'm leaning to go at least half or more into the F fund. Have a few minutes left.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  3. #710

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Went in all F with my last monthly IFT.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #711

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Sitting in safety (F-Fund) still.

    Using political news here, only as it applies to the markets.
    I'm good with that on my Account Talk if anyone wants to keep the discussion there.

    Most here know that the main reason for the rally since Election Day, has been the Wall St hope of tax cuts (mainly for themselves of course, lol).

    However, the latest attempt at a tax cut package seems just as DOA as the attempt to repeal the ACA.
    Been following posts from some of my friends on the right, and even they're up in arms about it (as they've finally discovered math-lol). Here's why:

    1) It would reduce the tax cap in 401k's from $18,000 down to $2,800. So if you're socking away 10-15% like Suzie Orman and Dave Ramsey tell you to, you could be paying an extra $2,000-$3,000 in taxes.

    2) It would eliminate deductions for state taxes. If you live in TX, WY, FL, AK you might say so what. But even a deep red state like Utah has a 5% flat income tax rate. They, and folks from Georgia to Ohio could pay an additional $1,000-$3,000.

    https://www.yahoo.com/gma/house-tax-...170507970.html

    So now, just those 2 things could cost middle to upper middle class folks an extra $3,000 to $6,000 in taxes per year. A tax HIKE not likely to be offset by slightly reduced tax brackets.

    The chances of this tax bill going thru now seem to now be fading.
    The idea of thousands of dollars of extra taxes for those saving in 401K's and living in states that have income tax(most states) in order to lower taxes for Trump, NFL players, Hollywood actors, Wall St Bankers, not to mention Trumps kids (estate tax elimination) has soured numerous friends of mine who were Trump supporters and/or supporters of tax reform, before they knew what was in it.
    I'm assuming this is following a national trend.

    As of this evening, futures were down pretty significantly on the indices.
    Being that we seem near or just past a top, following a 10 week mercurial rise in stocks, and the recent breakdown of the Transports, (below from Toms Eve Disc) often the market leader, makes me happy that I'm in safety right now.

    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 11-01-2017 at 08:40 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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  7. #712

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
    Posts
    76,390

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Politics?



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  9. Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet View Post
    Sitting in safety (F-Fund) still.

    Using political news here, only as it applies to the markets.
    I'm good with that on my Account Talk if anyone wants to keep the discussion there.

    Most here know that the main reason for the rally since Election Day, has been the Wall St hope of tax cuts (mainly for themselves of course, lol).

    However, the latest attempt at a tax cut package seems just as DOA as the attempt to repeal the ACA.
    Been following posts from some of my friends on the right, and even they're up in arms about it (as they've finally discovered math-lol). Here's why:

    1) It would reduce the tax cap in 401k's from $18,000 down to $2,800. So if you're socking away 10-15% like Suzie Orman and Dave Ramsey tell you to, you could be paying an extra $2,000-$3,000 in taxes.

    2) It would eliminate deductions for state taxes. If you live in TX, WY, FL, AK you might say so what. But even a deep red state like Utah has a 5% flat income tax rate. They, and folks from Georgia to Ohio could pay an additional $1,000-$3,000.

    https://www.yahoo.com/gma/house-tax-...170507970.html

    So now, just those 2 things could cost middle to upper middle class folks an extra $3,000 to $6,000 in taxes per year. A tax HIKE not likely to be offset by slightly reduced tax brackets.

    The chances of this tax bill going thru now seem to now be fading.
    The idea of thousands of dollars of extra taxes for those saving in 401K's and living in states that have income tax(most states) in order to lower taxes for Trump, NFL players, Hollywood actors, Wall St Bankers, not to mention Trumps kids (estate tax elimination) has soured numerous friends of mine who were Trump supporters and/or supporters of tax reform, before they knew what was in it.
    I'm assuming this is following a national trend.

    As of this evening, futures were down pretty significantly on the indices.
    Being that we seem near or just past a top, following a 10 week mercurial rise in stocks, and the recent breakdown of the Transports, (below from Toms Eve Disc) often the market leader, makes me happy that I'm in safety right now.


    I have been surprised that a proposal to limit pre-tax 401k contributions was even on the table. We all know (or should know) how Important the tax-deferred 401k is as a vehicle to save for retirement, and that any plan to replace tax deferred savings with an expanded Roth would be hurtful to people trying to save for retirement


    The elimination of the personal exemption for homeowners who itemize is, in and of itself, a tax INCREASE of about $1000. And if you live in a high tax state, the elimination of the state tax deduction will increase taxes by a couple of thousand dollars more. So much for it being a tax cut.... in reality it’s a TAX HIKE on the middle class .

    I can only hope that the most draconian parts are removed before tomorrow...

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  11. Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Shouldn’t a discussion on the future of 401k and taxes be relevant to this site?

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  13. #715

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by StockSurfer View Post
    I have been surprised that a proposal to limit pre-tax 401k contributions was even on the table. We all know (or should know) how Important the tax-deferred 401k is as a vehicle to save for retirement, and that any plan to replace tax deferred savings with an expanded Roth would be hurtful to people trying to save for retirement


    The elimination of the personal exemption for homeowners who itemize is, in and of itself, a tax INCREASE of about $1000. And if you live in a high tax state, the elimination of the state tax deduction will increase taxes by a couple of thousand dollars more. So much for it being a tax cut.... in reality it’s a TAX HIKE on the middle class .

    I can only hope that the most draconian parts are removed before tomorrow...
    Well, the difficulty of taking those things out, is that now they can't even come close to paying for this tax bill (Cutting the top tax rate from 39% down to 35%, eliminating the Estate Tax on estate values above 6 Million dollars, and cutting the Corporate Tax rate by 10-15%)

    That prevents about 10-20% of GOP fiscal hawks in Congress from supporting the tax bill. No Dems will support the tax plan, so it could likely die without even coming up for a vote.

    And for the market...that could mean a quick correction from the rapid rise of the last 12 months.
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 11-01-2017 at 09:39 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  15. Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Agreed that they are desperately searching for revenue to pay for their proposal... and they are looking at us... our tax-deferred 401k ... our personal exemption... our state tax deduction...

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  17. #717

    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    680

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Yup, we all make our bets on what may come and hopefully despite our inability to predict the future we all come out OK!

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  19. #718

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    So from a tactical perspective, what is the purpose of this tax plan?

    Currently, regarding jobs, we've been at "full employment" statistically (5% or lower) for over 2 years. We now have a "Labor Shortage" in most sectors.
    https://www.marketplace.org/2015/09/...ull-employment

    Currently, regarding corporations...they have never been more flush with cash than now.


    So basically, there are no significant amount of new jobs that are needed by our economy. (We need more workers from somewhere else actually).

    And corporations have more than twice the amount of cash than they did at the end of the last boom cycle that ended in 2007. Yet now we are going to give them even more cash to hoard (keeping it out of the economy)???

    So what is the purpose of this tax change again...that is going to add 1.5 Trillion to the National Debt?
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  21. #719

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    I assume it is supposed to grow the economy, and eventually raise wages. If it doesn't, it fails. If it does, the $1.5 trillion likely becomes a surplus. I read somewhere that each 0.1 increase in GDP increases tax revenue by some crazy amount (hundreds of billions or even a trillion.) I wish I could find that.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #720

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    I assume it is supposed to grow the economy, and eventually raise wages. If it doesn't, it fails. If it does, the $1.5 trillion likely becomes a surplus.
    There would be no surplus.
    The 1.5 Trillion projection of added debt over 10 years is on top of over 10 Trillion of debt already projected over the next 10 years.
    This years single year deficit is already on track to be 666 Billion, the largest deficit in the last 5 years.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/budg...man-sachs.html

    Increased GDP growth in past boom cycles have typically been early on, when the unemployment rate was falling from much higher numbers than now. In the mid 1980's most of that 3-5% GDP growth was when the unemployment rate was falling from 8% to 7 to 6%.
    Once it reached near 5%, from the late 1980's into the early 1990's. growth slowed also, which is normal. Our unemployment rate has been hoovering between 4.2% to 4.6% for over a year. Statistically we never get lower than that, which (naturally) limits growth.

    I think that, just like the Bush tax cuts...this one (if it passes) becomes temporary, and dependent on whether the deficits are lowered. Its an automatic rule if a tax bill doesn't pass by 2/3rds and has to go thru Reconciliation, if I remember correctly.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT


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