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Thread: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

  1. #13

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    The "I" fund pissed me off years ago and I can't seem to get over it. tapfingers.gif



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  3. #14

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    The I fund is going to earn my tugboat a great deal of money this year - invest where most people fear to tread.
    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    The "I" fund pissed me off years ago and I can't seem to get over it. tapfingers.gif
    The -I- Fund stands for "In the A$$" since that's where its hit me in the past 2 weeks since I shifted over from the S with my last move in January.

    On up days its moves up were considerably less than S or C.
    On down days its moves were considerably lower than S or C
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  5. #15

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    The I fund performance lately is designed to discourage more interest from investors - be patient for the gains to arrive.

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  7. #16

    Join Date
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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    The I fund performance lately is designed to discourage more interest from investors - be patient for the gains to arrive.
    If by patience you mean your acceptance of losing money, then I whole-heartitly agree....

    Attachment 22248
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  9. #17

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Looking at 4 major indices/ETF's and they all say (SCREAM) the same story.
    CROWN TOP FORMING...CROWN TOP ALMOST COMPLETE!!


    Crown Tops.jpg

    These crowning tops tell a story in the stock market cycle.
    Its all just a diagram of human nature,
    After weeks of enthusiasm of huge gains result in parabolic upward stock rise, complacency sets in,
    Then, profit taking from the smart money combines with the last minute rush of the "dumb money",
    Also, any negative news (even small stuff) becomes more magnified at the top of the cycle.
    This results in more volatility (recent rise in VIX), also seen by spiking indices (crowning top),
    The next move is almost always DOWN.

    At this point, you stay in stocks at your own peril
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  11. #18

    Join Date
    Nov 2005
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    , Utah, USA
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    19

    Question Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    The "I" fund pissed me off years ago and I can't seem to get over it. tapfingers.gif

    As it did **** me off several times over the past few years . But I keep going back to it, not all of the time but some of the time. It is still making money at certain times. I like it much better than the "F" fund.


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  13. #19

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by novice View Post
    As it did **** me off several times over the past few years . But I keep going back to it, not all of the time but some of the time. It is still making money at certain times. I like it much better than the "F" fund.
    The "F" fund pissed me off too, soon I will only have the "G" fund if this continues.



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  15. #20

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Last week (Feb 6th)it looked certain on the charts n that we were in the middle of a crown topping pattern.
    Well, after waiting a few days in the safety of F and G...it seems the charts have changed, and did what I said sometimes happens...a false top. See S&P charts below:

    S&P.PNG

    However, international stocks did top out...and correct slightly (about 2-3 percent). See I Fund and German DAX below:

    I-DAX.PNG

    So what seems to be happening, is that while there is some weakness internationally, the underlying strength of US equities is stronger, and only resulting in a flat consolidation along with a gradual break upward. In my past posts I said that I like to stay fluid, and not get hunkered down in a belief, when the factors for that belief have changed.

    So with that, I am now looking to use my 2nd IFT as a re-entry.
    I don't regret my move out of stocks last week...with 2 moves its always a good idea to play defense if you're at a market top, and the VIX is spiking while crowns are forming in the stock indices.
    Will go back to my overall bullish beliefs that were impressed upon me by the "Fibonacci Queen" that 2 main resistance levels were 1510 and 1550, and that 1510 has no been put behind us. I think we will trickle upwards until international stocks finish bottoming and swing back upward. That could come soon, given ECB Draghi comments on Spain (see link below). That's when we could see a big 1% daily upward move. I want to be already in for that day. But I'm pretty sure I'll go mostly S and/or C...and avoid the I Fund for now.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ecbs-d...180741263.html
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 02-12-2013 at 07:35 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  17. #21

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    "My 17,000 projection may turn out to be too timid. Now that's a real bull, a 20% plus gain for 2013."

    Dow 17,000? Main Street lambs led to the slaughter - Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

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  19. #22

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Was very busy this morning but wanted to wait for a dip before getting in...and the mid morning drop on our indices pushed me to it, but I didn't make a full decision until 3 minutes before the IFT deadline.

    So basically, after all my bashing of the I fund...I am a glutton for more punishment because I went 50% S and 50% I.

    Some of the reasons:

    - False crown top last week on US markets as C/S funds pushed up above that topping pattern.

    - Draghi's positive comments played a small role.

    - The Euro FUnds, like the German DAX, the French CAC and our -I- Fund have had a minor pullback to between the 20day to 50 day EMA's on their respective indices, and they started coming back up from it yesterday.

    - I fund outperformed US markets yesterday bigtime, which reminds me of how it behaves sometimes...after a period of under-performing US stocks it can quickly outshine them again, as the value of the Euro to US Dollar shifts...and we might be in one of those shifts.

    So (maybe after rereading BirchTrees I Fund Manifesto) I decided to keep a foot on each rock...going 50% S and 50% I.

    Plan is to stay in until another spiking crown pattern and higher VIX shows up....will use the S&P as the main barometer for that. We've been up so much in the past 2 months that any significant correction should show itself with some discernible topping pattern before a big drop. Otherwise 1-3 day dips are OK.Don't want to miss a "bleed-up" higher.

    My apologies for not posting earlier...guess I should realize that maintaining an account like this means I should give a bit of lead time before the IFT deadline before making a move.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  21. #23

    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    Some of the news that helped solidify my decision to jump back in (and partly into the dreaded I Fund again).

    Stocks make a U-turn and rise on housing, Europe
    Stocks rise on Wall Street a day after sell-off, driven by home prices, European manufacturing
    By Christina Rexrode, AP Business Writer | Associated Press – Tue, Feb 5, 2013

    NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market jumped Tuesday following a surge in U.S. home prices and new signs of strength in Europe's economy..........see rest below

    Stocks make a U-turn and rise on housing, Europe - Yahoo! News
    Last edited by FireWeatherMet; 02-13-2013 at 02:31 PM.
    CURRENTLY 100% G (as of COB 03/18/2024) 1st March IFT

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  23. #24

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    Default Re: FireWeatherMet Account Talk

    This might help you a bit.
    13 February 2013 Last updated at 12:09 ET
    EU and US free-trade talks launched

    The European Union and the US will begin formal talks on a free-trade agreement, paving the way for the biggest trade deal in history.
    European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso made the announcement following President Barack Obama's State of the Union address.
    A deal would bring down trading barriers between the two biggest economies in the world.
    EU-US trade is worth around 455bn euros (£393bn; $613bn) a year.
    "A future deal between the world's two most important economic powers will be a game-changer, giving a strong boost to our economies on both sides of the Atlantic," said Mr Barroso, speaking in Brussels.
    The EU estimates that a "comprehensive and ambitious agreement" will boost annual GDP growth by 0.5%.
    BBC News - EU and US free-trade talks launched



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