Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

Get ready and be prepared for a massive wave of panic buying that will send Treasury yields plunging back to record lows, well maybe not record lows but below 2%. Mario is getting ready to jump the shark and drive the euro to new lows also with a big QE move. He won't wait until their next meeting in December. Looking back to the beating I took in July with my small cap portfolio the fast selling velocity that spooked so many is not characteristic of young bear markets. Instead it is a bull market correction phenomenon. Staying long for years ahead. High velocity selloffs like July are not seen in early bear markets - the top is months away.

September looms, but this round number doesn’t feel so toppy - Need to Know - MarketWatch

"Forget about historical precedent of October."

I like to make money but I am starting to get emotional, not necessarily fear though, I do have my sticky pants on. This market is likely to pull everyone in no matter how stretched everything becomes and no matter how great the risk of being cast into perdition in the pyroclastic collapse to come - let it burn baby, I'm not moving.

I guess what I'm saying is that the day is getting closer when I'll be pushing $100K either way, up or down on any particular day - that makes me nervous.

"The stock market today is marked by lukewarm investor sentiment. Many individual investors remain reluctant to dive into stocks after being burned by the financial crisis six years ago. Some market observers say the overall lack of enchantment with the stock market could signal more gains ahead as many buyers come forward. The stocks in the S&P 500 were trading at 23.1 times their expected 12 month earnings as of March 31, 1998, according to FactSet. As of Friday, the S&P was trading at a price/earnings ratio of 15.5, compared with the 10 year average of 13.9." If you listen closely you can hear the muffled cries from the wilderness - get me in at any price.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

"The stock market today is marked by lukewarm investor sentiment. Many individual investors remain reluctant to dive into stocks after being burned by the financial crisis six years ago. Some market observers say the overall lack of enchantment with the stock market could signal more gains ahead as many buyers come forward. The stocks in the S&P 500 were trading at 23.1 times their expected 12 month earnings as of March 31, 1998, according to FactSet. As of Friday, the S&P was trading at a price/earnings ratio of 15.5, compared with the 10 year average of 13.9." If you listen closely you can hear the muffled cries from the wilderness - get me in at any price.

True. But if the market has a slight pullback you might see more of the sideline money jump in.

It's known that greed begets greater greed and I'm feeling over the top greedy. I still think there is a 300 point gap up on the way and that will send out the signal - come out of your bunkers. Waiting to see if Mario is going to walk the talk and blow up the ECB.

Bt I remember you saying the C fund would be king and hear we are with the C leading the pack after the long strong run with the S fund, good call. Your still strong with the I fund so it's all good for me to have a mix.

Why Stocks Should Run Higher From Here | Seeking Alpha

It does appear that we are on a slow glide path into September and that is acceptable to me. I have 105 dividends due for reinvestment in September and golden prices bring me more shares. There are 13 due on Tuesday and 17 on Wednesday - so I'll take slow days if possible. Of the 105 due so far 19 of them have been increased in amounts. The market, however, will easily make new highs in the next two or three months, possibly even significant new highs - especially if a European QE is coming. I'm set to just keep making money, no matter how much the gains.

I can't help myself, I just have to say it again. We are in a new multi-decade Supercycle bull market. And it will be fortuitously superlative. Snort.