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Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

  1. #16981

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Since 1940 we've never had more than one 10% correction in a bull market, so it's unprecendeted that we've already had two - 2010 and 2011. This tells me that we may be in a very prolonged cyclical bull market inside our current mega trend secular bull market - and someday will bring a cyclical bear but not anytime soon while the Fed is in charge. I'm going to continue reinvesting my dividend income looking for golden prices and I'll utilize my margin buying power when the opportunity provides itself - my bull case this year is still an SPX of 2400. So if lower prices are in my future for the next several months - simply bring'em and I'll collect as many wall flowers as possibly.

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  3. #16982

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    We're getting close to 1850 once again - if we can break above 1850 that could open the clouds to retest the most recent high area of 1900. We could blast past 1850 before the close - so easy to do with so much liquidity. The small caps might even start bouncing back.

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  5. #16983

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk



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  7. #16984

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    "The current correction in the averages and the growth sector is believed to represent an adjustment to a rising rate environment - not the end of the bull."

    Can a bull run without growth leaders? - MarketWatch

    The European inflation came it at +0.5% - Mario is going to pump big time. Why, because the 60 year Kress cycle is in its final year of descent. A final phase of deflationary pressure in the global economy can't be ruled out. Holding my 80 % I position.

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  9. #16985

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    I believe that Janet told us today that lower than normal interest rates will last for much longer than expected, at least into the later part of 2016. So once again the Fed has made it known that the stock market is the only place for the average person to get any potential significant gains over the next many years. So it's on and upward for even more margin debt - I simply gotta load up the truck.

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  11. #16986

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Moo, it's a great time to be invested - thankyou Janet. Moo, tomorrow could be the return of uncharted territory for the SPX. Moo, I'm all in all the time. Moo, we could easily be setting up for a huge upside explosion. Moo, all girl cows love you Ferdinand.

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  13. #16987

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    Moo, it's a great time to be invested - thankyou Janet. Moo, tomorrow could be the return of uncharted territory for the SPX. Moo, I'm all in all the time. Moo, we could easily be setting up for a huge upside explosion. Moo, all girl cows love you Ferdinand.
    Retired, 10G/90C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats

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  15. #16988

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    I've been patiently waiting to see a 200 point gap up on the Dow to unleash those animal spirits that will carry us much higher - so I guess as soon as Mario makes an ECB push for assets will be the catalyst. I know it will happen and will catch most of Wall Street and Main Street off guard - then you'll hear get me in at any price. I think 2016 is a very long time to wait to make any gains with fixed income - it's TINA time.

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  17. #16989

    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    I've been patiently waiting to see a 200 point gap up on the Dow to unleash those animal spirits that will carry us much higher - so I guess as soon as Mario makes an ECB push for assets will be the catalyst. I know it will happen and will catch most of Wall Street and Main Street off guard - then you'll hear get me in at any price. I think 2016 is a very long time to wait to make any gains with fixed income - it's TINA time.
    Hey folks. I'm back. In time to see the S&P hit 1900. The time to invest is when there is blood in the streets." So said Warren Buffet, or Soros, or Louis Ruckheiser, or one of those dudes.

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  19. #16990

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    I had high hopes of making back the -$192K I lost last week, but alas it was not to be. Here is what happened the last four trading days: +$42K, +$37K, +$68K, +$27K for a gain of +$174K. I was up about +$46K before obama had his dreary new conference - the market knows he was telling us more lies. This dark man can never be trusted again. So next week we could be off to the races especially if Mario steps up to the liquidity plate and swings big with some QE over the weekend.

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  21. #16991

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  23. #16992

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    I said all last year that 2013 was like the party in 1995. Some are now seeing the light. "Many investors today seem to have forgotten - or simply weren't around for - the big bull market of the 1990s. During the entire decade, there wasn't a single bear market, a 20% slide in stocks from a peak. From 1990 through 1999 - when the internet stock bubble began to dominate the market - the S&P 500 more than tripled. Much of those gains came in the years from 1995 through the end of 1998, when the S&P 500 rose an average of 28% a year. The economic backdrop of the mid-1990s echoes today's. Like then we are in a post financial crisis period accompanied by a jobless, disinflationary recovery. If rates go up in line with improvement in the economy, that's a good market environment for stocks. " I jsut can't wait to make more gains. We have many more years of the bull market to run and my plan is to gather as many wall flowers as Ferdinand allows and make at least +$1M a year. Does that sound aggressive - well it's not, I'm just a simple buy and holder that will coast into the uncharted future.


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