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Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

  1. #16453

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk


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  3. #16454

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    "The bull-bear spread is at its worst level in nearly 25 years. 45.5% or 47% heading into this week."

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43756.html

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  5. #16455

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    "Another streak for bulls. The S&P 500 has gone 27 months without a downturn of 10 percent or more. That compares with an average streak of 18 months between such declines, according to S&P Capital IQ. Investors who sat out the rally in stocks are now left with a quandary. Do they buy now, with stocks more expensive, or do they stay on the sidelines and risk being left further behind?" I think now that individual investors will push the parabolic rise into a further melt-up - that's fine with me. Every gain I make adds to my buying power. So bring on heavy volume and a VIX under 11 - the time is so right. I want to see a buying panic the opposite of the sell panic of 12/'08 - and an SPX gain of 70 points in one day. You have to know it's out there just waiting. If you don't know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out.

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  7. #16456

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    "One of the biggest mistakes investors make when it comes to trying to time market turns is in thinking that there will be a clear catalyst or sign ahead of time that tells them when the market is about to turn. The truth is that there almost never is."

    Catalyst For A Market Crash? - Business Insider

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  9. #16457

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    A quiet open this morning allows me to scoop up a few more even lots: SO, AEP, B. Waiting on perhaps a few more dividend increase announcements to finish the year.

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  11. #16458

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    "How to make money in a generational stock bull market 2014."

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43773.html

    J.P. Morgan's Sam Lee says there's a one in three chance of another 30% gain in 2014.

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  13. #16459

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Looking back to the first quarterg of 2013 my oceanic account took in a gain of +$495K - if I could be fortunate enough to do that again I'd be in fat city regarding buy power. And I would spend every dime of it going forward. I believe it's time to fully leverage up and at the same time give my sacrificial lamb chop account some attention just in case the bear wants to rip my sticky pants to shreads.

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  15. #16460

    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    "One of the biggest mistakes investors make when it comes to trying to time market turns is in thinking that there will be a clear catalyst or sign ahead of time that tells them when the market is about to turn. The truth is that there almost never is."

    Catalyst For A Market Crash? - Business Insider
    One of the hardest lessons to learn is you can’t time the market, another hard lesson wanting to sell when the market crashes.

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  17. #16461

    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by markmars View Post
    One of the hardest lessons to learn is you can’t time the market, another hard lesson wanting to sell when the market crashes.
    Of course you can time the market. The real trick is timing it correctly, and doing it successfully over changing market conditions.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017


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  19. #16462

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by markmars View Post
    One of the hardest lessons to learn is you can’t time the market, another hard lesson wanting to sell when the market crashes.
    You don't have to 'time the market' with everything you've got. Why not have a standard allocation and spice it up with 10%-20% moving around? Then you have a base allocation set to science and a potential for a bit of alpha for fun and - hopefully - profit.

    Just remember, to market time you have to make two trades. Gotta time the trade into the market and the trade out of the market - then rinse and repeat. Personally, I like my baseline allocation to take advantage of all those 1%er's trying to stay in the 1%er range. I just know they would hate downsizing from enormous mansions to a McMansion.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  21. #16463

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Congrats on the strange barbell allocation. I think it will make 2014 even more successful than 2013 for you.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  23. #16464

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    If I can pull in +$24K today I'll have a gain of +$1.5M in my oceanic account for 2013. I would like to better that mark in 2014 because I am definitely greedy. Snort.

    From my WSJ. "In the best year for U.S. stocks since 1995, the smart way to play the markets has been to follow the dumb money. So-called dumb money strategies, which involve buying and holding a plain-vanilla portfolio of U.S. stocks, did much better than the more complex approaches employed by hedge funds and other professional investors. Fueled by easy money from the Federal Reserve and signs of improvement in the economy the DJIA goes into the final day of 2013 with a gain of 29% once dividends are included, while the S&P 500 has climbed 32%. Those gains far outpace the rally predicted by even the most bullish Wall Street strategists."

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