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Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

  1. #14233

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    I'm anticipating a full on press panic buy today around 1300 hours as everyone tries to get through the same door at the same time - the venturi principle will effect the distribution on the other side of the door and the oceanic account will get showered with gains.
    BT,

    thanks for giving me the guts to get back in the market when I did, this is paying off after two years of not very wise trading. My husband said to never ever buy high and I did, he thinks I am in cash right now. Hubby wants me to be prudent and keep most of money is cash since I am retired. I still want to make some money but know I have to be more conservative, just not right now. I want to do the monthly withdrawal with my thrift and take out 3 or 4 %. Now how to keep my profit without getting caught in a pullback is the hard part for me.

    I was going to take some profit today but will wait as I see some smart members buying today.

    bjean

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  3. #14234

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Don't know BT...

    Lots of Black Swans flying around. The one we elected is using multiple Fat Tail feathers to affect foreign relations, our economy, other's economies, and the culture.

    For me, its time to be a bit safe. Those Black Swans fly fast and drop a miserable load. Maybe that's how I got the Pox. Yowser...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  5. #14235

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    I've just been sitting back with my slippers up on the desk - I think next week I'll begin to take opportunity and buy some of my lonely wall flowers before they get away. This bull cycle has a life of its own and will not stop to breath for months because there is so much cash on the sidelines - my greed factor says go.

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  7. #14236

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    Exclamation Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    BJean,

    You are:
    C: 15%
    S: 15%
    I: 70%

    Expected Annual Return: 8%
    Expected Annual Risk (Deviation): 13%

    BirchTree helped me tremendously in 2009. In fact, he probably bumped me into a nice retirement. He got me migrating into the market and dramatically increasing contributions soon after the bottom when everybody was running away. I am not a market timer. I did not time that market. April 2009 did not seem like a great time to migrate into C/S/I. I was buying tons of 'C Fund' in the $7 - $10 dollar range - and still am. Thank you BT for helping me fight the panic.

    However, I was not retired and had 20 years of investing left. And, BT doesn't need the assets from TSP to pay expenses.

    You have a very risky allocation. I don't know what will happen if you lose 20% before you can reallocate. That can happen in two or three days with your current allocation. I would strongly recommend listening to Ray Lucia and Ric Edelman and reading their books ('Buckets of Money', and 'The Truth About Money'). Both of these financial planners have affiliated offices throughout the nation.

    If your TSP account is important for your lifestyle I would not guess on the allocation since you are retired. You have got to have Bucket 1 and Bucket 2 assets to get through a correction or longer term downturn. Otherwise, you could end up moving to safety as the knife falls.

    By the way, I am not predicting a Falling Knife or a Black Swan Event. I dropped my crystal ball years ago.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

  8.  
  9. #14237

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    bjean,

    I like your current allocation, aggressive and yet leveraged. I'm maintaining pretty close to your levels at 80I and 20C. You can dollar cost average your way out on the upside - that way you don't move all allocations at once leaving more shares to grow gains. Just move in small percentages as we hit the higher price levels and you'll continue to make good gains. Me, I want every dollar working at these levels because I am greedy and proud of it. Boghie was correct in buying C fund shares on the cheap - who's to say they aren't still cheap even at these levels. The C fund can actually outperform for the next five years along with the I fund. Consider dollar cost averaging out of your S fund shares first.

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  11. #14238

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    BT,

    BJean may be pulling money out of his/her account for living expenses. That was my concern. You do not need your Tugboat account for living expenses and thus have a long investment time horizon. I am young enough - still have something like 15+ years till retirement - that I should have assets at risk. I have a long time horizon.

    Retirement planning is a tough business. I think BJean should put some cash down and get allocated - unless the TSP account is long term investing money.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!


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  13. #14239

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Still patiently waiting on 1300 hours for Ferdinand to kick in some alpha and then the red will flow from the remaining courageous shorts - let'em bleed.

    "Investors received a 14% boost in dividend cash payments in the second quarter of 2012."

    Why defend dividends? - Outside the Box - MarketWatch

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  15. #14240

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    I posted these words a couple of months back. "The extreme euro pessimism worrying everyone is actually very bullish. Euro strength will effectively spark major rallies in stocks and commodities."

    Euro to Surge | Adam Hamilton | Safehaven.com

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  17. #14241

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    "From an investment perspective, QE3 will probably trigger a massive rally in global stocks and commodities."

    QE3

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  19. #14242

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    My oceanic account did fine this week: -$21K, +$43K, +$23K, +$91K, +$64K for a grand total of +$200K. Now all I have to do is hang onto my gains over the next ten trading days and then make an extra +$21K and I'll have my +$400K moment in September - the worst trading month of the year historically. However, if the bull keeps running I can only dare to speculate as to my gains - perhaps in the neighborhood of $1/2M. This concept of 'unlimited' into monetary policy from both the ECB and FED is bullish for risk assets. Gosh could the blast from the after burners next week take me up +$300K. Now that would be a ride to behold.

    "Breadth has improved. The McClellan Oscillator is showing a thrust without any indication of weakness. MACD - buy signal in play."

    SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP | TheWaveTrading | Safehaven.com

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  21. #14243

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    My oceanic account did fine this week: -$21K, +$43K, +$23K, +$91K, +$64K for a grand total of +$200K. Now all I have to do is hang onto my gains over the next ten trading days and then make an extra +$21K and I'll have my +$400K moment in September - the worst trading month of the year historically. However, if the bull keeps running I can only dare to speculate as to my gains - perhaps in the neighborhood of $1/2M. This concept of 'unlimited' into monetary policy from both the ECB and FED is bullish for risk assets. Gosh could the blast from the after burners next week take me up +$300K. Now that would be a ride to behold.

    "Breadth has improved. The McClellan Oscillator is showing a thrust without any indication of weakness. MACD - buy signal in play."

    SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP | TheWaveTrading | Safehaven.com
    Of course, you will be paying $10/gal for gas, $12/gal for milk, $5 for bread, and $6/lb for hamburger meat. A Big Mac meal at McD's will set you back $15...

    But hey, stocks are SCREAMING!!!

    Have a great week-end BT!
    Rules:
    - Trade what you see, not what you believe
    - Don't put stuff in your signature that a Mod doesn't like

    "Government exists to protect all people’s rights, not some people’s feelings." - A. Barton Hinkle

    Great Tools:
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  23. #14244

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    The Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks at 864.70 is less than one point from its all time closing high. Imagine the S&P 500 in a strong 1982 type cyclical bull market - I want my massive asset bubble. I have ten trading days remaining to see how much rocket fuel I can burn - will September give me my $400K moment or take me way beyond that amount. I can hardly contain myself. I could easily speculate for a $600K moment but that might be fantasy. Anyway a gain of $379K in two weeks ain't to bad.

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