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Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

  1. #7873

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    Gainesville, Florida, USA
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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    This post however has my positive attention.

    "Clearly where the stock market is concerned the sovereign debt crisis talk is just background noise that continues to keep scared money away from investing, just as has been the case for the past 12 months where every correction breeds panic sell commentary. Which is great for a stock stealth bull market, the longer scared investors are kept in perpetual state of fear, the greater will be the bull run. How far could the stock market run? The stock market forecast for 2010 targets 12,500 this year, and continues to allude to a multi-year bull run."

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17732.html

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  3. #7874

    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    This post however has my positive attention.

    "Clearly where the stock market is concerned the sovereign debt crisis talk is just background noise that continues to keep scared money away from investing, just as has been the case for the past 12 months where every correction breeds panic sell commentary. Which is great for a stock stealth bull market, the longer scared investors are kept in perpetual state of fear, the greater will be the bull run. How far could the stock market run? The stock market forecast for 2010 targets 12,500 this year, and continues to allude to a multi-year bull run."

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17732.html
    Both good reads, and I concur, you don't have to agree with it. I say "good reads" to both because I think it is interesting to see what the other opinions are.

    My take is that in every "crisis" there are camps of people who make drastic predictions (in either direction) because from an analyst standpoint its a huge payoff bet. If they end up right, they can tell everyone "see I told you so" then write a book about it and sell it to suckers. If they end up wrong, who cares -- they'll just explain it away, saying the situation changed, then modify it into a new prediction.
    My posts are not advice. It's just my ideas from stuff I read, open to feedback from others. Be critical. Do your homework. // Currently: 50C/50I; 12-mo PIP: 12.05%.

  4.  
  5. #7875

    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    San Diego, CA
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    6,999

    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Birch wins:

    Bull Market Survival Rate Increases After One Year

    Bull-Market-Survival-Rate-cnbc
    THIS IS WHERE I WOULD PUT SOMETHING TO REPRESENT MY THINKING, BUT THEN THEY SHOW UP!
    Tracker =
    Check my position


  6.  
  7. #7876

    Join Date
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    Europe
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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Frixxxx View Post
    Birch wins:

    Bull Market Survival Rate Increases After One Year

    Bull-Market-Survival-Rate-cnbc

    Yes, let's all jump for joy we've surged 70% on this bull leg, and forget the fact we are still down over 27% from the previous 2007 bull leg. I love how the news crunch their numbers...

    I'll add, over 40% of 2008's tracker folks lost more than 27%
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  8.  
  9. #7877

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
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    Upstate NY
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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Birch, I like you better when you're a buyer on weakness. I hope you're keeping that margin clerk under wraps when you place your buy orders.

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  11. #7878

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    24,244

    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Bullitt,

    A month from now today will constitute a period of weakness - I just wish I didn't have to tell the IRS what my yearly dividend income is - but they already know from 1099s. I plan to purchase many DCA positions in my oceanic as long as we rally - already building my lamb chop portfolio as a back door escape during the next correction that approaches 10% - trying to stay ahead of the margin folks and spend as much as I can. It won't be long and I'll start on my second $1M off the March bottom. Perhaps we'll get an anniversary surprise tomorrow that will knock my socks off. Snort.

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  13. #7879

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Lostdawg,

    I wanted to express my gratitude in your move to the G fund - now I may have an opportunity to move up my ranking.

  14.  
  15. #7880

    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Deep South. Pacific Northwest native.
    Posts
    66

    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Birch wish you all the best.

    Almost went straight over to the C fund, but I didn't want to buy into a top which may be where we are at, don't know. That VIX spike chart I saw on here probably spooked me . Comfortable spending the time reevaluating on the side for a few days. Let's see how the week rolls. I think I played out the I fund IMO and needed to jump. Maybe a dip will have me in quickly or I'll be chasing you, time will tell.
    Keep up the good work and I do enjoy your bullish banter.

    So wish I would have been doing TSP when it came out for us in my first life. Live and learn.
    Need an attainable goal? Try honesty.

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  17. #7881

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    "March, April, and May are seasonally the strongest months of the year for the S&P 500. Combine that with the fact the breadth figures have been stronger than the SPX's actual price rise, and that positive 4Q09 earnings and revenue surprises have exceeded 70%, and we see no reason to alter our 1200-1250 intermediate term price target."

    http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

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  19. #7882

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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Buying in early and often on the highs: RKT, PCX, MEE, HUN. There are just so many opportunities that provide immense potential.

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  21. #7883

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    Doing a little more buying before we crack 10,600: RT, KWR, ARM, APU. I'll chase this momentum all day long because we are going higher.

    "Failure of the SP500/VIX ratio to sustain recent gains would coincide with a clear technical failure and add more conviction to the technically-oriented equity watchers."
    Look at the 2003 trend line resistance break for future promise.

    http://safehaven.com/article-16034.htm

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  23. #7884

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
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    Default Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

    It's stocks gone wild - let's burn the 1050 level today to celebrate the young bull birth. This market has years to run so buy early and enjoy the ride.


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