Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Birchtree

I'm staying heavy with the C fund because over 50% of those company revenues come from overseas.

I would have thought the same thing, but the large caps have been underperforming.

I-fund is dicy, Greece will sort things out this Thursday, then everyone will focus on Spain and Spain's larger more robust economy will shake things up.

I'm ready for an afternoon nap - see you all later.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

I don't know about anyone else but my feeling is we are setting up for one mean melt-up buying panic - enough of a move to create real damage in the bear arena. Some say there is no way this bull can run further without the participation of the housing sector or consumer spending. We don't need their participation because this market and recovery will be powered in large part by exports and business capex spending - that's all we need for the rest of this year and then mom and pop will return to blast us further up the valley. I'm staying heavy with the C fund because over 50% of those company revenues come from overseas. The emerging economies are showing hot growth and those markets should lead to further upside for our markets. Be in to win.

I see you as our savior leading us in the wright direction. I'm gonna take some % away from the G fund and add it to the C fund. That will be my last IFT for the month.

Originally Posted by Handballer

I see you as our savior leading us in the wright direction. I'm gonna take some % away from the G fund and add it to the C fund. That will be my last IFT for the month.

Handballer just to make sure you understand the 2 transfer per month rule. You are always aloud to pull out of stocks and back into the G fund. If you wanted to you could keep moving 1% per day back to the G until you ran out of days in the month.

I think we will see more positive movement this month and agree with your move.

Originally Posted by Handballer

I see you as our savior leading us in the wright direction. I'm gonna take some % away from the G fund and add it to the C fund. That will be my last IFT for the month.

I hate when I see posts like this. Birch has never been bearish so please, don't let his confidence be your guide. Sure the market looks good and can go higher, and I hope to ride it up until the technical picture tells me otherwise, but he was saying the same thing in mid-2007 right before all hell broke loose. Here's an example:

A post from May 7, 2007:

Originally Posted by Birchtree

You don't get rich by following the crowd. You make money by blazing a new trail. We are now above the all-time highs in the ratio adjusted NYAD. Because of this, the market is totally in the clear to move to places not thought of before to the upside. There is no breadth resistance anymore to impede this progress. This is why we continue to see day after day of positive breadth plurality with maybe a one or two day pause before moving higher again. What we want to see in a Primary 3 of higher degree advance is for both breadth and volume plurality to expand dramatically. We are presently in melt-up conditions. This next phase of the bull market will definitely not be one investors will want to be watching from the sidelines, as the gains are likely to be the most explosive that investors have seen since the late 1990's. With the A/D line there doesn't seem to be any leveling off of money flow at this time. Break-away gaps are rarely filled in total and seldom are they filled by more than 50%. I'm remaining bullish until 2010 - waiting for the nesting of this 4 year cycle.

Or how about this one from a couple days later?

Originally Posted by Birchtree

He's only one lone voice in the wilderness and has been on the wrong side all the way up - now he seeks redemption. Tom will also eventually throw in the towel and get on board for this mega run. Everything takes time and there is still plenty of money to be made - be right and sit tight. Snort.

Sound familiar?



Please, think for yourself. Having a one track mind has its pitfalls and if the market decides to tank again, you and Birch will be going down together.

Well that May, 2007 post sounds just like it fits for our present times. I don't ask that anyone follow me to the dungeon because I take my own route. But I do like to make money and today is no exception. Snort. As a reminder the market didn't tank for five months later - the arrow is off a little. I wish I was perfect but I'm only a permabull and this ride is delightful.

I figure that I can ride the stock funds up or sideways or slightly down for now. Hopefully up, but when they tumble fast, I'll jump back to the pond ASAP and wait for some more upward movement and get back in later. It's pretty sweet to be able to just make the decision yourself with TSP and a click of the mouse (in delay mode, unfortunately). Nobody else to blame if things go wrong.

Will be moving 5% of my S fund to the G fund COB 3/11. Maybe catching an $18.00 price to rest.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35798489

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35794187

I did make my goal of $1M off the March lows today - now if I can only hold it for the rest of the week. So many sweet things to buy going forward.

"In many ways, the rally off the recent lows of 1042 are the most impressive part of the entire 12 month rally."

http://pracap.com/market-wrap-the-rally-continues-2

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Will be moving 5% of my S fund to the G fund COB 3/11. Maybe catching an $18.00 price to rest.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35798489

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35794187

I did make my goal of $1M off the March lows today - now if I can only hold it for the rest of the week. So many sweet things to buy going forward.

Awesome...Congrat's...

Steve

There is a nice bearish article - "Anatomy of Blow Off Tops" by Cooper over on http:www.minyanville.com for anyone interested.