Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

I will admit that yesterday was down right brutal - I feel like I'm sitting on the dock of the bay watching money flow away. The oceanic gave back $117K in one day but that is still not my record. Anyway I'm a buyer again with my last 10 buys in the coal and pipeline areas now for a total of 400 buys around this bottom. I still have a few odds and ends to pick up in the near future and at some point I'll be chasing momentum buying improving pricing.

"Bullish divergence has presented itself in most other markets, which stand to benefit from unsustainable bearish sentiment as the major media the world over have done their job once again. The result being that people sit safely in cash which is right where they're suspposed to be from the perspective of those who need a counterparty in waiting."

http://safehaven.com/article-11982.htm

"As long as the major indices hold above their 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels (7976), the broad market still has a good chance of rallying back to test last week's highs in the near term. Conversely, any firm closing prices below the 61.8% retracement levels will tip the odds in favor of the main stock market indexes first retesting last month's low of 7450."

http://www.redoption.com/commentary/2/

According to Mark Hulbert there's an 83% probability that December will be an up month. Usually by the time it's evident the bear market is over, the market is up 30%, so you can't pick bottoms. The best policy is to just keep buying and giving money away until I'm correct.

Currently I'm 80% G and 20% S. A friend recommended dollar cost averaging to offset the losses of the S fund. So, I'm considering an IFT of 10% soon; still not sure which fund to go into. Advice would be appreciated.

Still trying to buy myself into happiness - went in early on the lows and made another 10 purchases now for a total of 410. Today I bought: ASH, C, DLX, FGP, WTU, AYI, ATN, ATO, CNX, TRN. I think we may rally hard this afternoon better than yesterday but I've been wrong so often it hardly matters. I did take a nice bite on C for the rally and a good profit before the end of the year. I plan to DCA into a larger position on the C.

Moonshadow,

If we end up rallying hard off this bottom - history indicates that the small caps are first to outperform so the S fund on a DCA basis could be the right position. However, this time could be different that's why I'm staying 68% in the C fund for the next ride up.

Here are a few quotes from some information that Robo was kind enough to forward to me.

From B. Brinker: "This year's events have created a new historic record level in this indicator based on the past six decades. The gap between the DJIA and its 200-day moving average reached the 34% level on November 20th. Previous gaps were at 27%." Bob suggests a continuing DCAing into this bottom.

From Steve Kaplan: "A TRIN of 10.17 on the NYSE is an astonishingly high level of TRIN, along with the huge increases in implied volatility indices including VXO and VIX, confirmed that 1) we are in a bull market; and 2) all subsequent days of heavy selling should be used as opportunities to add to your long positions. Those few who made the painful decision to buy into the pullback are appropriately rewarded - the financial markets always rally dramatically following any true bottom, so that those who panicked on the way down are punished rather than rewarded."

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Moonshadow,

If we end up rallying hard off this bottom - history indicates that the small caps are first to outperform so the S fund on a DCA basis could be the right position. However, this time could be different that's why I'm staying 68% in the C fund for the next ride up.

Well Birch, last week was one of my best week 2.4m in my trading account - 400k on GM and F alone with Citigroup tossed in for good measure. Hell, even today I even bought RIMM 50,000 shares at 35.45 and dumped it at 38.25 so not too bad.

I've have almost double my Mothers' money after she got out of the TSP by playing short and long. In all seriousness I don't know how you can live with the restrictions placed on it by "Huey Long" - his way of thinking almost ensures untimely loses when you used to be able to get out and in at you own personal discrection.

I still believe this is a trader's paradise with this volatillity if you have the appropriate funds and those funds being an appropriate amount in proportion too your total assets.

I cannot take all the credit because one of the people involved in the cause of my dog/animal rescue has an incredible amount of assets - the word B starts his net worth too give you an idea -that dwarf's my funds many times over so sometimes I piggyback on his trades that he is nice enough to share.

Just too reward myself for my hard work -18 to 20 hour days I picked up a nissan - Yes a nissan Gt-R - that for the mean time will be my evey day car. It is their specialty sports car retail around 80k with a 20k markup - so I added it to my collection.

Private donations to my dog rescue org. could not be better. I have no respect for Hollyweird although they get the word out they don't step up to the plate like a man and do the right thing. I guess their money has to go to their 20k mansions. It's really easy to talk the talk but most of them are a bunch of pu$$ies where all of it is is talk - that's all they seem too be good at - they sure can't walk the walk from what I see.

I'm very glad for the connections I have established not only relative to stocks but to the VERY generous donations from some very weathy guys who understand what I am doing relative to my animal cause. You couldn't ask for a better group of people - people who you would least expect to step up to the plate and people willing to share ideas outside of my main cause.

cayman

Bill Miller says the bottom has been reached - well duh? I say buy'em now beacuse they will only cost more tomorrow: another 6 for a grand total around this bottom of 416. I just bought: AF, T, PXP, CNH, CTX, AME.

Cayman is way out of my current league but I appreciate hearing from him - a look inside the bigger money plays. If I can make a $12K day today I'll be even on the week ready for the blow that may come tomorrow. I did make 6 more purchases this morning now for a total of 422 around this bottom. I just doubled up on my C purchase at $8.06 and also bought: BW, GE, NL, LTD, PHM. Today may give us an upward explosion - perhaps.

You will know you have relief when our members start to howl about inflation again. We now have lower growth in labor costs as the job market weakens. Costs per unit of labor rose 1.4% in the third quarter from a year earlier, below the previous estimate of 2.3%. With the labor market weakening to the lowest level since 1974, this driver of inflation is likely to be even weaker over the next year or two. Right now the baying is quiet.

Birch, I'm building up cash in my brand-new first-time ever e-brokerage account, doing some practice trading. It's almost time to try my hand at individual stock-picking. You bought DLX and LTD lately, I've been looking at them. I know why I'm looking at them, why did you? besides the dividend factor and P/E, that is....? Any other reasons you liked them at this point, that you'd be willing to share?