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Thread: Birchtree's Account Talk

  1. #25

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    Alright now - lets finish last week. Showme talks about the beating he took last week-I wouldn't mind trading my ribs for his. On Friday 5/13 I dropped another $14,000. That makes $46,000 for the week and a grand total of $138,000 since the top on 3/7. Presently sitting at $797,284 as of 5/13. The question now is how long if ever will it take me to regain my lost ground? Frankly, I don't think it will be that long- remember I've been adding to my positions all the way down, except for 5/13.

    I'm staying 100% C fund in my TSP account and will maintain a low profile in my outside account unless I'm forced to make more sacrifices with a lower new test of a bottom below 10,000. I'm prepared to make trades, but for now I need to heal and pull off these bandaids I accumulated from the bear claws. I hope if you are reading this that you know this is the real deal. Stick around and watch me start to get nervous on the way up. Your losses are always quantifiable- the gains however can have the potential to be unlimited. When to sell is much more difficult than when to buy-it requires even more discipline. I hope I can rally some good advice on when to take some off the table- I don't like to ring the cash register unless there is a sacrifice attached to it. That is the achilies heel of this renegade contrarian.

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  3. #26

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    Birchtree wrote:
    On Friday 5/13 I dropped another $14,000. That makes $46,000 for the week and a grand total of $138,000 since the top on 3/7.
    Hey, it's only Yankee money!

    Birchtree wrote:
    Presently sitting at $797,284 as of 5/13.
    Wow, Birch, you da man !

    Birchtree wrote:
    I hope I can rally some good advice on when to take some off the table
    I say that there is no time like the present.

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  5. #27

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    Greg,

    No I mean when we get closer to Dow 13,000 and sp500 of 1600. Just don't want to leave everything on the table with new highs. That's the hard part-wait you will see what I mean. When you take it off the table you are giving up potential further gains. No one likes to do that-remember the techs of 2000-no one wanted to leave the game-and they all got trapped. Except me, I knew better than to get into that game-I just accumulated dull old stocks that nobody wanted. When 3/03 arrived I was in full throttle. And now I'm ready to go some more.


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  7. #28

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    Greg,

    No I mean when we get closer to Dow 13,000 and sp500 of 1600. Just don't want to leave everything on the table with new highs. That's the hard part-wait you will see what I mean. When you take it off the table you are giving up potential further gains. No one likes to do that-remember the techs of 2000-no one wanted to leave the game-and they all got trapped. Except me, I knew better than to get into that game-I just accumulated dull old stocks that nobody wanted. When 3/03 arrived I was in full throttle. And now I'm ready to go some more.

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  9. #29

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    Ooh Mama what a day. Ihave permission to stay home tomorrow and tape read-my wife wears the pants around my house-yes I'm whipped and love every minute of it. We had a 3to1 ratio today-that is very strong. If we could see 2 more of the same back to back, it would be like the earth is moving. I remember when....the move off the 1982 bottom. No one was a believer only this buddung contrarian-Folks I pulled down $300,000 in ten months. Couldn't keep it though-certainly learned alot from that market.

    The PCE (personal-consumption expenditures), which excludes food and energy, gained at a 2.2% annual rate in the first quarter, up from 1.7% in the final quarter last year and the highest rate in 3 years. Allen watches this index very closely. Now, with the latest CPI and core rates out today, the PCE will be back down around 1.6%. My friends inflation is benign - the Fed has paused. C'mon over to the C fund and enjoy the ride. I peeked into the shelter today and all the G folks were wearing sun glasses- and here I am putting on my oxygen mask getting prepared for high altitude.



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  11. #30

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    Come on over to (I) for a short vacation!

    The sun is beginning to peak through the clouds on these foreign shores!:dude:
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  13. #31

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    When your right your right! If I would have stuck it out I would have been over 2% better off. :' Maybe next time.
    Socrates: "Democracy, which is a charming form of government, full of variety and disorder, and dispensing a sort of equality to equals and unequaled alike."

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  15. #32

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    Show-me,

    It's going to be a long way up. I think the sideways motion is over for now. There is stll room on the rocket ship. As the guy from the Doors said- c'mon baby light my fire, you set the rocket ship on fire.

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  17. #33

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    Birchtree wrote:
    Show-me,

    It's going to be a long way up. I think the sideways motion is over for now. There is stll room on the rocket ship. As the guy from the Doors said- c'mon baby light my fire, you set the rocket ship on fire.
    MAN, and am I EVER for ready for a ride!!!:dude:

    I do not want to hear, "Houston, we have a problem." either!:P


    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  19. #34

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    I can't help but notice the many folks running for the G fund and F fund for sanctuary. Unfortunately, as a sad comentary this is probably classic bull market deception. Sorry folks you have to take some risks or you won't make any money. You have to make money before you become defensive in posture-that's how the game is played. This economic expansion has several years left to run before we get back into a slow down or another recession. With the economy doing fine you must be invested-waiting will only add to your anxiety.

    Dennis

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  21. #35

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    Birchtree wrote:
    I can't help but notice the many folks running for the G fund and F fund for sanctuary. Unfortunately, as a sad comentary this is probably classic bull market deception. Sorry folks you have to take some risks or you won't make any money. You have to make money before you become defensive in posture-that's how the game is played. This economic expansion has several years left to run before we get back into a slow down or another recession. With the economy doing fine you must be invested-waiting will only add to your anxiety.

    Dennis
    At the same time you must realize that we have had a really good run all week long in which we have ALREADY made some $$$. That is now running out of steam and trending back down.

    Anyways, it's not like we are seeking sanctuary forever. Why expose yourself when you don't have to, and especiallywhen you know there's a good possibility of the market trending back down.

    You have to play it both ways.

    God Bless:^




    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  23. #36

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    Things this week were good-pulled up $37,000 to $834,000- thay leaves me with $101,000 to go to redeem my portfolio. If Elaine Garzarelli is correct it shouldn't take very long. A number of my auto parts stocks showed some rebound today. Will most likely start doing some nibbling on the way up while stocks are so cheap. Would like to add to my lumber holdings and chemicals. Can't forget steel-that area was active today. Perhaps hedge funds are covering some of their short positiuons.

    I'm now permabull#2 as well as the renegade contrarian. I should take this moment to tell Dave (he probably won't see it anyway) that I never pull out quickly and never ever will. Why bother!

    We may, incidently, be set up for a good week next week. There is so much money that is going to be looking for a home all the way up.
















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