Thread: Rktect1 Account Talk

High fiber diet supplemented with Metamucil.

Well, I did not have any confidence in that last move to the S fund and I took a 1% loss for the month after jumping out to the F fund.

Yesterday I moved to the S fund again. My yearly gain is now 9% so I am doing all right.

But, a different thread got me wondering about something. I stated that I was averaging 8% for the past 15 years on my TSP, which is not true. I am about 7.5% average. Now, I know that this year I am at 9% but last year I was actually down minus 5%. That sucks and so does the 7.5% average I have for 15 years. I just looked up the yearly returns for the S fund on the tsp website. Last year when I lost 5%, the S fund gained about 8% That sucked eggs. What is worse is that since the S fund inception in 2001, the average gain is 9.44% So I am losing 2% on average right now for the last 15 years. I wonder what that comes out to in dollars?

At any rate, yes this year I am at 9% and the S fund is at like 1.03% So this year I made up for last year. But this is not really a winning strategy if buy and hold S fund is over 9%.

Somehow, I have to change my thinking to a semi buy and hold where I side step a couple (2-3) potholes for the year. I am thinking about a max. of 8 moves.

Originally Posted by rktect1

Well, I did not have any confidence in that last move to the S fund and I took a 1% loss for the month after jumping out to the F fund.

Yesterday I moved to the S fund again. My yearly gain is now 9% so I am doing all right.

But, a different thread got me wondering about something. I stated that I was averaging 8% for the past 15 years on my TSP, which is not true. I am about 7.5% average. Now, I know that this year I am at 9% but last year I was actually down minus 5%. That sucks and so does the 7.5% average I have for 15 years. I just looked up the yearly returns for the S fund on the tsp website. Last year when I lost 5%, the S fund gained about 8% That sucked eggs. What is worse is that since the S fund inception in 2001, the average gain is 9.44% So I am losing 2% on average right now for the last 15 years. I wonder what that comes out to in dollars?

At any rate, yes this year I am at 9% and the S fund is at like 1.03% So this year I made up for last year. But this is not really a winning strategy if buy and hold S fund is over 9%.

Somehow, I have to change my thinking to a semi buy and hold where I side step a couple (2-3) potholes for the year. I am thinking about a max. of 8 moves.

I have found that fewer moves have greatly improved my performance, standing still to run fast (a Birchtree-ism). The trick is making a move when you're probably not inclined to (selling high, not bailing when things go south...). 7.5% over 15 years is not too shabby... compare that to CDs or savings accounts returns.

So, there it is.

November and December screwed me in 2015 just like 2014.

down to 4.94%

Originally Posted by rktect1

So, there it is.

November and December screwed me in 2015 just like 2014.

down to 4.94%

perhaps you should quit making yourself available for screwing in november and december? just a thought...

Originally Posted by burrocrat

perhaps you should quit making yourself available for screwing in november and december? just a thought...

How about January. I'm #1420 on the auto-tracker with a -1.75% for the year after just one day.

Yippee.

Congratulations
I don't know if that's worse than me being in the top 10 for 7 months last year and then working my way down to your current position

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I am really less than happy right now. ;swear

You and me both.

Hopefully, with my exit today into the G fund, I can hold onto my 5% gain for the month. Sounds really nice but that will put me at -.70% for the year. Which I am now happy with.

So,....you want to beat the S fund. Well, me too.

as you can see from my returns in my signature, i havent been doing that well. I am wondering about my current strategy and re thinking it. So here are my thoughts.

beating the S fund returns, which are on average about 8%. And that aint bad.

so looking back to about 2007, had i stayed in the S fund 100% of the time, i would have an extra $50k right now.

why knock ourselves out when all you have to do is pick a good exit day, historically, or wait on extreme bad news and exit the S fund. Say, maybe three times a year. Then wait for the fall. Never buy back into the S fund until you can get back in at a lower price. Just look at the charts at tsp.gov and you can see that outside of "all time high" today, will eventually be replaced with a lower low. If this works out and you are patient, you should always be ahead of that average 8%, right.

So here is the test. Pick three random dates for each year for the past ten years. Look up where that market price for the S fund was at. Then check to see if there are three other times that you could get back in at a lower S fund price. Right?

Or am i way off base here?