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Thread: Rktect1 Account Talk

  1. #217

    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    OK, but what do you do when you are wrong? It took off like a rocket in 2013 and never came down. A lot of people on the sideline waited for a drop that never came. That is sort of what happened to me when I got out earlier this year.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  3. #218

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    OK, but what do you do when you are wrong? It took off like a rocket in 2013 and never came down. A lot of people on the sideline waited for a drop that never came. That is sort of what happened to me when I got out earlier this year.
    Pick an actual date. Be honest with that date. Which day of what month would you have actually chosen to get out of the S fund and into the g fund? I am backtesting november 10 the Marine Corps birthday.

    November 12 is closest to it. There is only one day after that i could buy back in at a lower price. Which means you had to buy back in on that day or today, three years later, you would still be waiting. But a day will come when the S fund goes below november 12 2013. And another day will come when it goes back over your buy back price.
    Last edited by rktect1; 08-04-2016 at 08:52 AM.
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018

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  5. #219

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    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    My theory has to make several assumptions though.

    1. You start with a benchmark of 8%, not 0% like autotracker does each year on January 1st.
    2. I don't add any money into the tsp monthly or bi-monthly. I have a static number of shares to begin with.
    3. In reality we don't randomly pick a date, only for back-testing. You still need to be watching for those signs and signals.
    4. You never buy back into the S fund at a higher price even if that means being in the G fund for 2 years.


    I back-tested the "go away in may" date of roughly May10-15 and bought back in Sept 10-20 from 2006 through 2012 and instead of an 8% average return came out with a 10% return.
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018

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  7. #220

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    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    Holy CRAP!

    I am positive for the first time this year.
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018

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  9. #221

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    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    I am letting this puppy ride. Baby needs a new pair of shoes.
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018

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  11. #222

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    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by rktect1 View Post
    I am letting this puppy ride. Baby needs a new pair of shoes.
    Scared to death right now. Running for the hills into the G cave.
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018

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  13. #223

    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    I'm going to ride a little longer. Hopefully not glutting for punishment.

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  15. #224

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    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    Considering a move out to the G fund by Friday. All this is starting to be too good to be true. The top 300 in auto tracker have 6% that are 100% out of the G or F fund. Smart money seems about ready to take the dumb money.
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018

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  17. #225

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    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    So, 5.83% of the top 600 auto-trackers are out of stocks 100% meaning in the G or F fund. That is a very small number. Seems like over confidence to me at these highs.

    Holiday weekend so....

    If the market is up at noon, I am going to the G fund today COB If the market is down (quite a bit) then I will stay in the S fund and wait for the pop back up on Tuesday.
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018


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  19. #226

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    I'm in the mindset. However, I am in the C fund 100%. I am debating whether or not to go into the G fund today. Depending on how the markets are here within the next half hour, I may just leave everything in the C fund. I don't have any more IFT's left so it's "Should I stay or should I go".
    MICHAEL KELLY ~ EST RETIREMENT OCT 2025

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  21. #227

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    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    Went 80% G, 10% C and 10% S.

    Maybe there is a little juice left in the can next week.
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018

  22.  
  23. #228

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    Default Re: Rktect1 Account Talk

    Moved 100% S fund and it looks like a few other followed.

    Crazy.
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018

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